¿Hasta qué punto es inminente el colapso de la civilización actual? – Índice y referencias

Sumario

1. Introducción (23/12/2014)

2. La visión sistémica

2.1. La dinámica de sistemas, un paradigma científico alternativo (24/12/2014)

Dinámica rápida, dinámica lenta
Mirar al bosque y no a los árboles
El signo de las realimentaciones
La necesaria unidad de las ciencias
Historia de la dinámica de sistemas
Propiedades que emergen
Todo es termodinámica

2.2: Estabilidad y equilibrio (26/12/2014)

Estabilidad y sus umbrales
Extralimitación y colapso
La importancia clave de los retardos
Diseñar controladores,  un baño de realidad

2.3: De contornos y sostenibilidades (27/12/2014)

La importancia del contorno
¿Contorno, frontera, entorno, medio ambiente?
¿Qué tipo de economista es usted?
Sostenibilidad ¿débil?
Desacoplos mentales y termodinámicos sobre un globo

3. Percepciones humanas de los sistemas naturales y económicos (28/12/2014)

Y muchas más limitaciones perceptivas
Pobre sistema climático
La ayuda insustituible de las matemáticas
La analogía del mapa

4: Aplicaciones de la dinámica de sistemas al sistema climático (29/12/2014)

Está verde
En el ciclo del carbono si
Geoingeniería, la última frontera

5. Aplicaciones de la dinámica de sistemas a las ciencias sociales (30/12/2014)

Ciclos históricos
Los amos del mundo
La cuestión del determinismo
Gobernanza y control social

6. Aplicaciones de la dinámica de sistemas a la economía (31/12/2014)

Dios en el mercado
¿Totalitarismo científico?
Negacionismo económico-dinámico

7: Las (no) previsiones del Massachusetts Institute of Technology (01/01/2015)

Críticas y negacionismos a LLDC
Los profesionales del no
Ataques desde el otro flanco
Nuestros negadores patrios
Disonancias romanas

8: Los mensajes (auténticos) de ‘Los Límites del Crecimiento’ (02/01/2015)

Lujo generacional
Límites al crecimiento ¿de qué?
Los mensajes clave

9: Nivel de cumplimiento de las previsiones de LLDC

9.1 Las revisiones, y primeras conclusiones (03/01/2015)

¿Estaría en lo cierto, a pesar de todo?
La revisión de 2014
Crisis energética y su influencia en la economía

9.2 Repasando conceptos y definiciones (04/01/2015)

La megamáquina
Qué es el pico del petróleo
Qué es la tasa de retorno energética (TRE)
El meollo de la cuestión
La trampa de la eficiencia
Picos de Barbastro

9.3 Qué es lo que produce el colapso (05/01/2015)

Por dónde se derrumba el sistema
Límites de las energías alternativas
No todo es electricidad

9.4: ¿Es World3 el único en predecir un colapso inminente? (06/01/2015)

¿La NASA contra la desigualdad?
El Colapso de las Sociedades Complejas

10: ¿Lograremos evitarlo? (07/01/2015)

La patronal española y el petróleo
¿Podría no ser tan grave?
¿Podría ser peor?
¿Lograremos evitarlo?

11: ¿Cómo y cuándo se manifestarían los límites? (08/01/2015)

TRE necesaria
Burbujas rompedoras
¿Cuándo?

12: ¿Y el cambio climático? (09/01/2015)

¿Cómo afecta el cenit de la energía a las previsiones sobre cambio climático?
Fusiones freáticas irreversibes

12: ¿Qué podemos hacer?

12.1 Pensamiento sistémico crítico (10/01/2015)

Dinámicas contramovilizadoras
La importancia de la verdad

12.2 Desatornillar el spin (11/01/2015)

Orientar adecuadamente las energías escasas

13: ¿Qué más podemos hacer? (17/01/2015)

¿Tecnología al rescate?
Crear comunidad
Explorar la inteligencia colectiva
Más verdad, más fuerte
Conciencia universal
Amar sin límites

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2. Samuel Alexander (2014) – A Critique of Techno-Optimism: Efficiency without Sufficiency is Lost – Melbourne Sustainability Institute Working Paper – Post Carbon Pathways project – http://www.sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/files/mssi/PostCarbonPathways_WP1_Alexander_Critique-of-Techno-Optimism_2014.pdf
   “Direct rebounds are estimated to range generally in the vicinity of 10-30% (Sorrell, 2009: 33), meaning that typically 10-30% of the expected environmental benefits of efficiency gains are lost to increased consumption of the same resource. In some circumstances, direct rebounds can be 75% or higher (Chakravarty et al, 2013). Indirect rebounds are somewhat harder to measure, but are generally thought to be higher than direct rebounds, and estimates of macro-economic rebound range from 15%-350% (Dimitropoulos, 2007). The huge range here again points to differences in methodological assumptions.”
3. Jay W. Forrester (1971) – Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems – Technology Review – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – http://www.constitution.org/ps/cbss.pdf
   “Concepts of feedback system behavior apply sweepingly from physical systems through social systems. Feedback system ideas were first developed and applied to engineering systems. Understanding closed-loop (feedback) systems has now reached practical usefulness in social systems.”
4. Karl J. Åström and P.R. Kumar (2014) – Control: A perspective – Automatica 50:3–43 doi:10.1016/j.automatica.2013.10.012 – Department of Automatic Control, Lund University; Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering – http://www.smp.uq.edu.au/people/YoniNazarathy/Control4406_2014/resources/AstromKumarControlPerspective2014.pdf
   “Control is a field whose progress has been punctuated by several key theoretical contributions. These have involved a variety of mathematical sub-disciplines, such as complex analysis, differential equations, probability theory, differential geometry, optimization and graph theory. As such, control is currently one of the most mathematized fields of engineering.”
5. William Ross Ashby (1923) – An Introduction to Cybernetics – Literary Licensing, LLC – ISBN-13: 978-1258687335 – 304 Págs.
6. Norbert Wiener (1965) – Cybernetics: Or Control and Communication in the Animal and the Machine – The MIT Press – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – ISBN-13: 978-1432594442 – 196 Págs.
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   “The climate change was synchronous (within a few decades) over a region of at least hemispheric extent, and providing constraints on previously proposed mechanisms of climate change at this time … during the Younger Dryas, the summit of Greenland was 15 – 38 C colder than today.”
8. Andreu Mas-Colell et al (1995) – Microeconomic Theory – Oxford University Press – Harvard University – ISBN-13: 978-0195073409 – 1008 Págs. –
   “Un fet característic que diferencia l’economia d’altres àmbits científics és que … les equacions d’equilibri constitueixen el centre de la nostra disciplina. Altres ciències, com la física o fins i tot l’ecologia, posen comparativament més èmfasi en la determinació de les lleis dinàmiques del canvi. Però aquí, fins ara, gairebé no hem esmentat la dinàmica.”
9. J. Åström (1999) – Automatic Control: The Hidden Technology – Advances in Control 1-28 doi:10.1007/978-1-4471-0853-5_1 – Lund Institute of Technology – http://math.haifa.ac.il/robotics/UBC/Meech%20course/Aastrom%20%20Karl/Introduction%20to%20Control/lecture17.pdf
   “Windmills 1787, Steam engines 1788, Governors 1890, Water turbines 1893, Tolle Die Regelung der Kraftmaschinen 1905, PID controllers 1930”
10. J. Åström (2004) – Control Engineering: the Hidden Technology – DCSC Symposium, 08/06/2004 – University of California at Santa Barbara + Lund Institute of Technology – http://www.dcsc.tudelft.nl/Symposium/SlidesAstrom.pdf
    “Body and Soul · Intellectual challenges (the soul) Basics that it generalizes easily Give the general picture Make the introductory course more relevant and fun! · The engineering aspect (the body) Educate students broadly enough so that they can take full systems responsibility ”
11. Alexander Laszlo and and Stanley Krippner (1998) – Systems Theories: Their Origins, Foundations, and Development – En: J.S. Jordan (Ed.), Systems Theories and A Priori Aspects of Perception. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, 1998. Cap 3:47-74 – http://archive.syntonyquest.org/elcTree/resourcesPDFs/SystemsTheory.pdf
    “The method proposed by systems theory is to model complex entities created by the multiple interaction of components by abstracting from certain details of structure and component, and concentrating on the dynamics that define the characteristic functions, properties, and relationships that are internal or external to the system. ”
12. Alexander Laszlo and Stanley Krippner (1998) – Systems Theories: Their Origins, Foundations, and Development – En: J.S. Jordan (Ed.), Systems Theories and A Priori Aspects of Perception. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, 1998. Cap 3:47-74 – http://archive.syntonyquest.org/elcTree/resourcesPDFs/SystemsTheory.pdf
    “The principal heuristic innovation of the systems approach is what may be called ‘reduction to dynamics’ as contrasted with ‘reduction to components,’ as practiced in the methodologies of classical science … Yet almost every real-world system contains a large number of components and is exposed to a large number of external forces and events. In consequence, another heuristic became necessary, capable of simplifying unmanageably complex phenomena by reduction to dynamics instead of to components.”
13. Donella H. Meadows et al (1972) – The Limits to Growth. A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project for the Predicament of Mankind – Universe Books New York – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – http://www.donellameadows.org/wp-content/userfiles/Limits-to-Growth-digital-scan-version.pdf – 4 autores
    “Much of each year’s output is consumable goods, such as textiles, automobiles, and houses, that leave the industrial system. But some fraction of the production is more capital—looms, steel mills, lathes—which is an investment to increase the capital stock. Here we have another feedback loop [in addition to population growth]. More capital creates more output, some variable fraction of the output is investment, and more investment means more capital. The new, larger capital stock generates even more output, and so on.”
14. Jeroen C. J. M. van den Bergh and John M. Gowdy (2003) – The microfoundations of macroeconomics: an evolutionary perspective – Cambridge Journal of Economics 27: 65-84 doi: 10.1093/cje/27.1.65 – Department of Spatial Economics, Free University + Department of Economics, School of Humanities & Social Sciences, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute – http://dare.ubvu.vu.nl/bitstream/handle/1871/9394/00021.pdf
    “The opposition of reductionism and holism is of little use and, in its place, a hierarchical approach is proposed. This allows for both upward and downward causation and interaction between levels.”
15. Jeffrey Goldstein (2013) – Introduction to “Downward causation in hierarchically organized biological systems“, from Donald Campbell (1974) – E:CO 15:139-151 – https://emergentpublications.com/(X(1)S(zdtfrhog1a21ext1kda4kvnx))/ECO/ECO_other/Issue_15_3_8_CP.pdf
    “But we can appreciate that even in such a simple way of stating it, the notion of downward causation carries with quite a bevy of problematic issues. What do “higher” and “lower” levels refer to? What constitutes a substrate in contrast to a macro-phenomenon? What does “downwards” in this sense mean? What constitutes a “causal influence”? Furthermore, it is possible to hold the position of accepting at least some form of emergence but not downward causation or only accepting downward causation if the “causative” action is limited to being the work of some kinds of constraints or of dumping the whole notion of emergence if downward causation is legitimated by it or if the whole idea is interpreted as only figurative and not literal. ”
16. Lars Syll (2013) – Economics textbooks – how to get away with scientific fraud – Real-World Economics Review Blog, 29/11/2013 – http://rwer.wordpress.com/2013/11/29/economics-textbooks-how-to-get-away-with-scientific-fraud/
    “As is well-known, Keynes used to criticize the more traditional economics for making the fallacy of composition, which basically consists of the false belief that the whole is nothing but the sum of its parts … Although it may be said that one succeeds in establishing The Law for single individuals it soon turned out – in the Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu theorem firmly established already in 1976 – that it wasn’t possible to extend The Law of Demand to apply on the market level, unless one made ridiculously unrealistic assumptions such as individuals all having homothetic preferences – which actually implies that all individuals have identical preferences.”
17. Donald Saari (1995) – Mathematical complexity of simple economics – Notices of the American Mathematical Society 42:222-230 – Department of Mathematics, Northwestern University – http://cema.cufe.edu.cn/admin/data/uploadfile/200907/20090720082740710.pdf
    “Actually, the source of the difficulty— which is common across the social sciences— is that the social sciences are based on aggregation procedures. But, even simple aggregation methods, from probability, statistics, and even voting, admit surprisingly complex paradoxes.”
18. John O’Neill (2004) – Ecological economics and the politics of knowledge: the debate between Hayek and Neurath – Cambridge Journal of Economics 28:431-447 doi:10.1093/cje/beh016 – Centre of Philosophy, Institute for Environment, Philosophy and Public Policy, Lancaster University
    “Neurath responded to these criticisms in unpublished notes and correspondence with Hayek. These highlighted the epistemological premises his work shared with Hayek’s, representing a response to Hayek from Hayek’s own assumptions. This paper examines the cogency and continuing relevance of the arguments in this debate.”
19. George A. Reisch (2005) – How the Cold War Transformed the Philosophy of Science – Cambridge University Press – Independent scholar
20. Wiki – Talcott Parsons – Wikipedia, 14/09/2014 – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talcott_Parsons
    “During the McCarthy era, on April 1, 1952, J. Edgar Hoover received a personal letter from an informant who reported on Communist activities at Harvard. During a later interview the informant claimed that “Professor Talcott Parsons … was probably the leader of an inner group” of Communist sympathizers at Harvard … In the affidavit Parsons wrote, ‘This allegation is so preposterous that I cannot understand how any reasonable person could come to the conclusion that I was a member of the Communist Party or ever had been.’[ref] ”
21. Edward Osborne Wilson (1998) – Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge – Vintage – Harvard University – ISBN-13: 978-0679768678 – 384 Págs.
    “The descent to minutissima, the search for ultimate smallness in entities such as electrons, is a driving impulse of Western natural science. It is a kind of instinct. Human beings are obsessed with building blocks, for ever pulling them apart and putting them back together again …The impulse goes back as far as 400 BC when Leucippus and Democritus speculated, correctly as it turned out, that matter is made of atoms.”
22. Richard Dawkins – El gen egoista – Bruño Editores – ISBN-13: 978-8434501782 – 424 Págs
23. Mary Midgley (2003) – Myths We Live By – Routlegde New York – Department of Religious Studies at Mount Allison University – http://shawnslayton.com/open/iPAD/Book%20myths-we-live-by.pdf
    “Standards are now set that concentrate on form, not on suitability to the subject-matter. This makes it necessary to use methods which closely imitate the forms of physical science. And among those forms, a prime favourite is, of course, atomism. This, then, is the principle that requires us, if we want to understand culture, somehow to find its units. But is culture the sort of thing that divides up into units? Edward O. Wilson sternly declares that it is.”
24. Emilio Cerdá (2007) – Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers y Dennis Meadows: Los límites del crecimiento 30 años después – Fundación Sistema – Universidad Complutense de Madrid – http://www.fundacionsistema.com/media/PDF/PPios9_Meadows.pdf
    “Se considera a Jay W. Forrester el padre de la disciplina, a partir del libro Industrial Dynamics (1961). El mismo Forrester, maestro de los autores del libro que nos ocupa, diseñó el prototipo de modelo de ordenador que se ha utilizado en la investigación que está en la base del libro que nos ocupa.”
25. Ramón Tamames (2006) – Sobre crecimiento, humanidad y futuro – Universidad Complutense de Madrid – http://www.uam.es/otros/fungobe/doc/lecciones2Tamames.pdf
    ”En la misma línea de tendencia de Gaia, cabe recordar, que fue Jay Forrester quien preconizó algo parecido, aunque menos poéticamente y con carácter menos holista, al enunciar su teoría de sistemas.”
26. Jay W Forrester (1958) – Industrial Dynamics: A Major Breakthrough for Decision Makers – Harvard Business Review 26:37–66 doi:10.1225/58404 – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – https://www.scribd.com/doc/158721742/Industrial-Dynamics-A-Major-Breakthrough-for-Decision-Makers
    “The new management concepts will rest in part on recent advances in the data-processing industry, in part on military research (which has given us an improved understanding of decision making and experience in analyzing and simulating the characteristics of complex systems), and largely on 20 years of research in information- feedback systems. ”
27. Fritjof Capra and Pier Luigi Luisi (2014) – The Systems View of Life: A Unifying Vision – Cambridge University Press – Center for Ecoliteracy, Berkeley – ISBN-13: 978-1107011366 – 978 Págs.
    “Ludwig von Bertalanffy (1901-1972) began his career as a biologist in Vienna during the 1920s. He soon joined a group of scientists and philosophers, known internationally as the ‘Vienna Circle’, and his work included broader philosophical themes from the beginning.” (p. 86)
28. Ludwig von Bertalanffy (1938) – A Quantitative Theory of Organic Growth – Human Biology 10:181-213 – Zoologisches Institut der Universität Wien + The University of Chicago
    “Various examples in physics and physiology … show that it is often possible to state statistical laws for complex phenomena as a whole, the single events of which are inaccessible to investigation. It may be that such procedures will be effective also with respect to organic growth.”
29. Mark Davidson (1983) – Uncommon Sense: The Life and Thought of Ludwig von Bertalanffy (1901-1972), Father of General Systems Theory – J. P. Tarcher, Inc. – ISBN-13: 978-0874771657 – 248 Págs.
    “Biologist/philosopher Ludwig von Bertalanffy may be the least known major thinker and theoretician of the twentieth century. Bertalanffy left behind a precious legacy: a new way of “seeing” and thinking that he called General Systems Theory. GST shows us how to understand organic and organizational complexities and is a guide for effectively bringing about change.”
30. Alexander Bogdanov (1922) – Tektologiya: Vseobschaya Organizatsionnaya Nauka – Berlin and Petrograd-Moscow
31. Fritjof Capra and Pier Luigi Luisi (2014) – The Systems View of Life: A Unifying Vision – Cambridge University Press – Center for Ecoliteracy, Berkeley – ISBN-13: 978-1107011366 – 978 Págs.
    “However, tewnty to thirty years before Bertalanffy published the first papers on his ‘general systems theory’, Alexander Bogdanov (1873-1928), a Russian medical researcher, philosopher, and economist, developed a systems theory of equal sophistication and scope … Bogdanov even anticipated the concept of catastrophe developed in the 1960s by the French mathematician René Thom.” (p. 84,85)
32. Fritjof Capra and Pier Luigi Luisi (2014) – The Systems View of Life: A Unifying Vision – Cambridge University Press – Center for Ecoliteracy, Berkeley – ISBN-13: 978-1107011366 – 978 Págs.
    “Mathematically, bifurcation points mark sudden changes in the system’s phase portrait. Physically, they correspond to points of instability at which the system changes abruptly and new forms of order suddenly appear.” (p. 116)
33. Chris Bisell (2010) – Not just Norbert – Kybernetes 39:496–509 doi:10.1108/03684921011036754 – Department of Communication and Systems, The Open University Milton Keynes, UK – http://oro.open.ac.uk/21350/1/not_just_norbert.pdf
    “Although Norbert Wiener is justifiably granted the epithet ‘father of cybernetics’, a number of other engineers from a control or telecommunications background also turned to areas that can broadly be categorised as cybernetic during and immediately after WW2.”
34. Arnold Tustin (1954) – The Mechanisms of Economic Systems – An Approach to the Problems of Economic Stabilisation from the Point of View of Control-System Engineering – Heinemann, London – Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Birmingham + Imperial College London – 173 Págs. –
35. G.D. Allen (1955) – The Engineer’s Approach to Economic Models – Economica 22:158-168 – London School of Economics
    “To put the matter more bluntly, a social system implies that people act partly as cogs in a social and economic machine. People play their roles while driven by pressures from the whole system. Accepting the dominance of social systems over individuals is contrary to our cherished illusion that people freely make their own decisions.”
36. Kenneth E. Boulding (1956) – General systems theory: The skeleton of science – Management Science 2:197-208 – University of Michigan – http://www.panarchy.org/boulding/systems.1956.html
    “(i) The first level is that of the static structure. It might be called the level of frameworks. … (ii) The next level of systematic analysis is that of the simple dynamic system with predetermined, necessary motions. … (iii) The next level is that of the control mechanism or cybernetic system, which might be nicknamed the level of the thermostat. … (iv) The fourth level is that of the “open system,” or self-maintaining structure. … (v) The fifth level might be called the genetic-societal level; it is typified by the plant, and it dominates the empirical world of the botanist. … (vi) As we move upward from the plant world towards the animal kingdom we gradually pass over into a new level, the “animal” level, characterized by increased mobility, teleological behavior and self-awareness. … (vii) The next level is the “human” level, that is of the individual human being considered as a system … (viii) Because of the vital importance for the individual man of symbolic images and behavior based on them it is not easy to separate clearly the level of the individual human organism from the next level, that of social organizations.” … (ix) To complete the structure of systems we should add a final turret for transcendental systems; even if we may be accused at this point of having built Babel to the clouds. … One advantage of exhibiting a hierarchy of systems in this way is that it gives us some idea of the present gaps in both theoretical and empirical knowledge.
37. Ignacio Rodríguez Rodríguez (2012) – La “Nave Espacial Tierra” de Kenneth Boulding – Revista de Economía Crítica 14:320-326 – Departamento de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de La Frontera, Chile – http://revistaeconomiacritica.org/sites/default/files/revistas/n14/Clasicos2-Ignacio.pdf
    “En resumen, Kenneth Boulding fue un economista crítico con las ideas dominantes en su disciplina, que entendió perfectamente la interdependencia que existe entre los sistemas naturales y los sistemas sociales y no tuvo reparos en denunciar la irracionalidad del Sistema de Contabilidad Nacional, que privilegia los flujos frente a los stocks, y los principales indicadores de medición del éxito de las economías que ignoran la imposibilidad de un crecimiento económico indefinido en un planeta finito. ”
38. Herman Daly – Eight Fallacies about Growth – The Daly News, 06/08/2012 – http://steadystate.org/eight-fallacies-about-growth/
    “Globalization was a policy choice of our elites, not an imposed necessity. Free trade agreements had to be negotiated. Who negotiated and signed the treaties? Who has pushed for free capital mobility and signed on to the World Trade Organization? Who wants to enforce trade-related intellectual property rights with trade sanctions? The Bretton Woods system was a major achievement aimed at facilitating international trade after WWII. It fostered trade for mutual advantage among separate countries. Free capital mobility and global integration were not part of the deal. That came with the WTO and the effective abandonment by the World Bank and IMF of their Bretton Woods charter.”
39. Ragnar Frisch (1933) – Propagation Problems and Impulse Problems in Dynamic Economics – En: Economic essays in honour of Gustav Cassel – University of Oslo – http://www.sv.uio.no/econ/om/tall-og-fakta/nobelprisvinnere/ragnar-frisch/published-scientific-work/PPIP%5B1%5D.pdf
    “If a cyclical variation is analysed from the point of view of a free oscillation, we have to distinguish between two fundamental problems: first, the propagation problem; second, the impulse problem. ”
40. T. Newlyn (1950) – The Phillips/Newlyn Hydraulic Model – Yorkshire Bulletin of Economic and Social Research 2:111-127 doi:10.1111/j.1467-8586.1950.tb00370.x – The University, Leeds
41. Chris Bissell (2007) – The Moniac: A Hydromechanical Analog Computer of the 1950s – IEEE Control Systems Magazine 27:59–64 doi:10.1109/MCS.2007.284511 – http://oro.open.ac.uk/7942/1/04064850.pdf
    “Those who used the machine or observed it in action made comments similar to remarks made by the users of other analog simulators of the period. For example, users were enthusiastic about the way the device gave a “feel” for economic behavior, presented visual (rather than numerical) results, and was accessible without explicit advanced mathematics … A demonstration that took place at the LSE in November 1949 before a distinguished audience of economists was a great success.”
42. Mary S. Morgan (2012) – The World in the Model: How Economists Work and Think – Cambridge University Press – Professor of history and philosophy of economics at London School of Economics and Political Science – ISBN 9781107002975 – 439 Págs. –
    “In 1928, Newlyn joined the Territorial Army … became proficient in electrical engineering … Philips work[ed] on dynamics and the use of control theory in economic analysis and policy, for which he gained the Tooke Chair in 1958 … Philips rethinks economics into his own engineering domain to make sense of it.” (p, 186,191)
43. Steve Keen (2009) – The Dynamics of the Monetary Circuit – Palgrave Macmillan – School of Economics & Finance, University of Western Sydney – http://keenomics.s3.amazonaws.com/debtdeflation_media/papers/9780230_203372_10_cha09.pdf
    “In this chapter, we show that this paradox is in fact an illusion, which results mainly fromthe use of inappropiate moldelling techniques – and also, we argue, from a misspecification of the problem of debt.”
44. Gregory Bateson (1972) – Steps to an Ecology of Mind: Collected Essays in Anthropology, Psychiatry, Evolution, and Epistemology – University of Chicago Press – ISBN-13: 978-0226039053 – 565 Págs.
45. Gregory Bateson (1979) – Mind and nature: A necessary unity – Dutton – ISBN-13: 978-0525155904 – 238 Págs. – http://www.oikos.org/mind&nature.htm –
46. Geoff Davies (2013) – Sack the Economists and Disband Their Departments – BWM Books – ISBN-13: 978-0992360368 – 252 Págs. – http://sacktheeconomists.com/
    “Mainstream economics has multiple fundamental flaws that cause great harm to people’s lives, to societies and to the planet. This book concisely and simply explains the flaws, and uses modern knowledge and systems ideas to show how market economies can be more sensibly managed to deliver a healthy and more equitable world.”
47. Regulador de Watt
48. L. Lewis (1992) – A Brief History of Feedback Control – En: Chapter 1: Introduction to Modern Control Theory in: F.L. Lewis Applied Optimal Control and Estimation Prentice-Hall 1992. – http://www.uta.edu/utari/acs/history.htm
    “J. Watt invented his steam engine in 1769, and this date marks the accepted beginning of the Industrial Revolution. However, the roots of the Industrial Revolution can be traced back to the 1600’s or earlier with the development of grain mills and the furnace. One should be aware that others, primarily T. Newcomen in 1712, built the first steam engines. However, the early steam engines were inefficient and regulated by hand, making them less suited to industrial use. It is extremely important to realize that the Industrial Revolution did not start until the invention of improved engines and automatic control systems to regulate them.”
49. Regulador de martillos
50. Karl J. Åström and P.R. Kumar (2014) – Control: A perspective – Automatica 50:3–43 doi:10.1016/j.automatica.2013.10.012 – Department of Automatic Control, Lund University; Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering – http://www.smp.uq.edu.au/people/YoniNazarathy/Control4406_2014/resources/AstromKumarControlPerspective2014.pdf
    “The gradual evolution over several decades from an application of feedback to a broad and deep theoretical framework for its analysis and design can be clearly seen in the case of the centrifugal governor. Used early on in windmills in 1745 Mayr (1969), and subsequently by Watt in steam engines in the 1780s, it was originally a proportional controller, with integral and derivative action subsequently added (Bennett, 1979). About a century later, Vyshnegradskii (1876) and Maxwell (1868) initiated a theoretical investigation. This led to the work of Hurwitz (1895) and Routh (1877) on stability analysis.”
51. James Clerck Maxwell (1868) – On Governors – Proceedings of the Royal Society of London 16:270-283 – http://www.maths.ed.ac.uk/~aar/papers/maxwell1.pdf
52. Rob Hopkins – Resilience Thinking – Resurgence, 01/11/2009 – Green Agenda for the Copenhagen Summit – http://transitionculture.org/
    “Resilience; ‘the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganise while undergoing change, so as to retain essentially the same function, structure, identity and feedbacks’ … Why ‘resilience thinking’ is a crucial missing piece of the climate-change jigsaw and why resilience is a more useful concept than sustainability.”
53. Inge Røpke (2004) – The early history of modern ecological economics – Ecological Economics 50:293-314 doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2004.02.012 – Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, Technical University of Denmark – http://www.uvm.edu:8889/~gundiee/publications/Ropke_2004.pdf
    “The 1970s and the beginning of the 1980s saw a new wave of interest in general systems theory. This was stimulated by the work of the physicist Ilya Prigogine and his research group in Belgium who introduced the concept of self-organizing, dissipative structures [refs]. Whereas classical thermodynamics focussed on equilibria in ‘isolated’ systems, Prigogine and others studied systems that are closed with regard to matter, but receive and give off energy. Such systems can be far from equilibrium, the processes taking place can be irreversible, and new structures can emerge— dissipative structures that are dependent upon continuous supply and the giving off of energy. The processes can be analysed by using the mathematics related to non-linear dynamics that was integrated with systems theory in the 1960s. With a basis in the new thermodynamic perspective, some physicists began to study biological evolution and the emergence of life on earth, extending the overlap between physics and biology. ”
54. Eric D. Schneider y Oriol Sagan (2005) – La Termodinámica de la Vida – Tusquets Editores – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminsitration – ISBN-13: 978-84-8383-052-9 – 438 Págs.
    “La eternidad se retiró precipitadamente a la imaginación matemática de la que había salido. Adiós al cosmos que funcionaba como un reloj. Progresivo y regresivo, el mundo estaba ahora dividido por una autopista de tiempo. Le tocaría a una nueva termodinámica, la del no equilibrio, tomar un helicóptero para contemplar los dos sentidos del tráfico y presentar la evolución y la termodinámica como elementos de una misma corriente.”
55. John L.R. Proops (1983) – Organisation and dissipation in economic systems – Journal of Social and Biological Structures 6:353-366 – Department of Economics, University of Keele
    “It is argued that if a physical viewpoint is taken, economies can be considered as self-organizing dissipative systems. Measures of organization and dissipation are proposed and empirical analysis indicates that organization and energy dissipation increase together for economic systems, and there is weaker evidence that energy ‘efficiency’ also increases with organization.”
56. Brian Arthur (1999) – Complexity and the Economy – Science 284:107-109 doi:10.1126/science.284.5411.107 – Citibank Professor, Santa Fe Institute – http://erb.umich.edu/Research/ColloquiaDocs/StermanClimaticChange2011.pdf
    “After two centuries of studying equilibria—static patterns that call for no further behavioral adjustments—economists are beginning to study the general emergence of structures and the unfolding of patterns in the economy. When viewed in out-of-equilibrium formation, economic patterns sometimes simplify into the simple static equilibria of standard economics.”
57. Michael J. Radzicki (2011) – System Dynamics and Its Contribution to Economics and Economic Modeling – Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics 2011:727-737 doi:10.1007/978-1-4419-7701-4_39 – Worcester Polytechnic Institute – http://ebooks.narotama.ac.id/files/Complex%20Systems%20in%20Finance%20and%20Econometrics/Chapter%2039%20%20System%20Dynamics%20and%20Its%20Contribution%20to%20Economics%20and%20Economic%20Modeling.pdf
    “Senge and Fiddaman’s contributions are also very interesting because they demonstrate how the original economic models are special cases of their more general system dynamics formulations.”
58. Robert E. Ulanowicz et al (2009) – Quantifying sustainability: Resilience, efficiency and the return of information theory – Ecological Complexity 6:27-36 – University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Chesapeake Biological Laboratory; Integral Science Institute; Center for Sustainable Resources, University of California; School of Computer Science, University of Birmingham
    “Contemporary science is preoccupied with that which exists; it rarely accounts for what is missing. But often the key to a system’s persistence lies with information concerning lacunae … The analysis provides heretofore missing theoretical justification for efforts to preserve biodiversity whenever systems have become too streamlined and efficient. Similar considerations should apply as well to economic systems, where fostering diversity among economic processes and currencies appears warranted in the face of over-development.”
59. Mahesh Karnani et al (2009) – The physical character of information – Proceedings of the Royal society A 465:2155-2175 doi:10.1098/rspa.2009.0063 – Department of Biosciences, University of Helsinki – 3 autores
    “Consequently, we reason, on the basis of the theory of evolution by natural selection founded on thermodynamics, that ultimately all communication aims to enhance energy transduction to level differences among energy densities.”
60. Peter A. Corning (2002) – ‘Devolution’ as an opportunity to test the ‘synergism hypothesis’ and a cybernetic theory of political systems – Systems Research and Behavioral Science 19:3-26 doi:10.1002/sres.421 – Institute for the Study of Complex Systems
    “The term ‘synergy’ refers to otherwise unattainable combined effects that are produced by the interactions among various elements, parts or individuals”
61. Daniel Stedman Jones (2012) – Masters of the Universe: Hayek, Friedman, and the Birth of Neoliberal Politics – Princeton University Press – ISBN-13: 978-0691151571 – 432 Págs.
62. Philip Mirowski and Dieter Plehwe (2009) – The Road from Mont Pelerin: The Making of the Neoliberal Thought Collective – Harvard University Press – University of Notre Dame – Págs. –
    “Much like welfare state capitalism during the postwar era of Fordism, hegemonic neoliberalism needs to be thought as a plural in terms of both political philosophy and political practice.”
63. David Korowicz (2010) – Tipping Point: Near-Term Systemic Implications of a Peak in Global Oil Production An Outline Review – The Oil Drum, 15/03/2010 – Feasta & The Risk/Resilience Network – http://www.theoildrum.com/files/Tipping%20Point.pdf
    “The rules governing energy and its transformation, the laws of thermodynamics, are the inviolate framework through which all things happen- the evolution of the universe, the direction of time, life on earth, human development, the evolution of civilisation, and economic processes … We should intuit that an energy withdrawal should have major systemic implications, for without energy flows nothing happens.”
64. Cutler J. Cleveland (1999) – Biophysical Economics: From Physiocracy to Ecological Economics and Industrial Ecology – En: Bioeconomics and Sustainability: Essays in Honor of Nicholas Gerogescu-Roegen – J. Gowdy and K. Mayumi Eds. -(Edward Elgar Publishing Cheltenham England) pp. 125-154 – Department of Geography and Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Boston University – http://www.localenergy.org/pdfs/Document Library/BiophysicalEcon.pdf
    “Podolinsky (1883), a Ukrainian socialist, was the first to explicitly scrutinize the economic process from a thermodynamic perspective [ref] … Podolinsky tried to reconcile the labor theory of value with a thermodynamic analysis of the economic process. In his conclusions, which he communicated to Frederick Engels on several occasions, Podolinsky stated the socialist model was flawed because it assumed that “scientific socialism” would overcome all natural -resource scarcities and enable unlimited material expansion.”
65. Joel Kovel (2011) – On Marx and Ecology – Capitalism Nature Socialism 22:4-17 doi:10.1080/10455752.2010.547667 – Editor-In-Chief of Capitalism, Nature, Socialism
    “In any case, neither Marx nor by and large the socialist traditions that followed were able to do more than partially transcend the curse of capital as it pressed toward unlimited production on a finite earth. ”
66. Marx – El Capital vol. II
67. Joan Martinez-Alier (2003) – Marxism, Social Metabolism and Ecologically Unequal Exchange – World Systems Theory and the Environment – Departament d’Economia i d’Història Econòmica, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona – http://www.recercat.net/bitstream/2072/1194/1/UHE21-2004.pdf
    “Actually, Marx dismissed the notion of decreasing returns in agriculture altogether, pointing out in the context of his praise for Liebig’s agricultural chemistry and its promise of artificial fertilizers, that it did not make sense to assume in Britain that the produce of the land would increase in a diminishing ratio to the increase of the labourers employed, because in practice there was at the time both an increase in production and an absolute decrease (already) in the number of labourers (Capital, I, chapter 13). Marx was not worried about crises of subsistances.”
68. Frederick Soddy (1926) – Wealth, Virtual Wealth and Debt – Noontide Pr, 1987 – Universiy of Michigan – ISBN-13: 978-0317532180 – 320 Págs. – http://www.scribd.com/doc/76495347/Wealth-Virtual-Wealth-and-Debt-by-Frederick-Soddy
    “Debts are subject to the laws of mathematics rather than physics. Unlike wealth, which is subject to the laws of thermodynamics, debts do not rot with old age. On the contrary, they grow at so much per annum, by the well known mathematical laws of simple and compound interest” (p. 70).
69. Frederick Gardner Cottrell (1953) – Energy and Society: the Relation Between Energy, Social Change, and Economic Development – McGraw Hill – Miami (Ohio) University – ISBN-13: 978-1449031695 – 484 Págs.
    “if you want this, here are the conditions under which you may have it … It will only be when we get a response from nature, in the form of greatly diminished return in the form of surplus energy, that we can expect the present [industrial] revolution to slow down.”
70. Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen (1971) – The Entropy Law and the Economic Process – Harvard University Press – ISBN: 1-58348-600-3 – 457 Págs.
    “Perhaps the earth can support even forty-five billion people, but certainly not ad infinitum. We should therefore ask “how long can the earth maintain a population of forty-five billion people?” And if the answer is, say, one thousand years, we still have to ask “what will happen thereafter?”.”
71. Crelis F. Rammelt and Phillip Crisp (2014) – A systems and thermodynamics perspective on technology in the circular economy – Real-World Economics Review 68:25-40 – University of New South Wales; University of Amsterdam + EcoSolve, Australia – http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue68/RammeltCrisp68.pdf
    “System dynamics and thermodynamics tell us that a tolerable rate of throughput and entropic transformation is ultimately dictated by the natural system, not by economics or engineering.”
72. Frank P. Ramsey (1928) – A mathematical theory of saving – The Economic Journal 38:543-559 – King’s College, Cambridge – http://folk.uio.no/gasheim/zRam1928.pdf –
    “How much of its income should a nation save? … One point should perhaps be emphasized more particularly: it is assumed that we do not discount later enjoyments in comparison with earlier ones, a practice which is ethically indefensible and arises merely from the weakness of imagination; we shall however, include … such a rate of discount in some of our investigations.”
73. Robert U. Ayres and Benjamin Warr (2009) – The Economic Growth Engine: How Energy and Work Drive Material Prosperity – Edward Elgar Publishing – IIASA Laxenburg + INSEAD Fontainebleau; Center for the Management of Environmental Resources (CMER), INSEAD – ISBN-13: 978-1848441828 – 448 Págs.
    “Note that the Ramsey model is a perpetual motion machine.” (p. 143)
74. Robert U. Ayres (1996) – Limits to the growth paradigm – Ecological Economics 117-134 doi:10.1016/0921-8009(96)00064-X – INSEAD Fontainebleau
    “It is simply wrong to suggest (or imagine) that economic development is a natural process that will occur anywhere in the world, if we only allow businessmen enough freedom to move money and goods around.”
75. Jordi Pigem (2013) – La nova realitat: De l’economicisme a la consciència quàntica – Editorial Kairós – Doctor en Filosofia – ISBN: 978-84-9988-230-7 – 226 Págs

“No som espectadors d’un món d’objectes, sino coautors i cocreadors d’un món de relacions.” (p. 117)

76. Lars Syll – Modern macroeconomics and the perils of using ‘Mickey Mouse’ models – Real-World Economics Review Blog, 15/10/2014 – http://rwer.wordpress.com/2014/10/15/modern-macroeconomics-and-the-perils-of-using-mickey-mouse-models/
    “Blanchard’s piece is a confirmation of what I argued in my paper Capturing causality in economics and the limits of statistical inference – since “modern” macroeconom(etr)ics doesn’t content itself with only making “optimal” predictions,” but also aspires to explain things in terms of causes and effects, macroeconomists and econometricians need loads of assumptions — and one of the more important of these is linearity.”
77. Olivier Blanchard (2014) – Where Danger Lurks – Finance & Development – IMF’s Economic Counsellor and head of its Research Department – http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2014/09/pdf/blanchard.pdf
    “But this answer skirts a harder question: How should we modify our benchmark models—the so-called dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models that we use, for example, at the IMF to think about alternative scenarios and to quantify the effects of policy decisions? … should these models be able to describe how the economy behaves in the dark corners? ”
78. Peter A. Corning (2007) – Thermoeconomics: Beyond the Second Law – Journal of Bioeconomics (in press) – Institute for the Study of Complex Systems – http://www.complexsystems.org/publications/pdf/thermoecon.pdf
    “In brief, many of these Second Law theorists seriously misinterpret and thus misuse the concept of entropy; others utilize deficient concepts of “information” that cannot be operationalized; many blur the crucial distinction between statistical or structural forms of “order”, on the one hand, and evolved, goal-directed functional “organization”; not least, they have been misled by some of the very “gods” of physics into conflating energetic order/disorder and physical order, which in many cases is not correct (see below).”
79. Robert M. Solow (1974) – The Economics of Resources or the Resources of Economics – The American Economic Review 74:1-14 – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – http://nordhaus.econ.yale.edu/documents/Solow_Resources.pdf
    “…the world can, in effect, get along without natural resources, so exhaustion is just an event, not a catastrophe… at some finite cost, production can be freed of dependence on exhaustible resources altogether.”
80. David Wallace (2014) – Thermodynamics as Control Theory – Entropy 16:699-725 doi:10.3390/e16020699 – Balliol College, Oxford
    “There is a general name for the study of how a system can be manipulated through external intervention: Control theory. Here again a system is characterised by its possible states, but instead of a dynamics being specified once and for all, a range of possible control actions is given. The name of the game is to investigate, for a given set of possible control actions, the extent to which the system can be controlled.”
81. Dirk Helbing (2013) – Globally networked risks and how to respond – Nature 497:51–59 doi:10.1038/nature12047 Risk Center, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology – http://www.uvm.edu/~cdanfort/csc-reading-group/helbing-nature-2013.pdf
    “Table 1 lists common drivers of systemic instabilities [ref], and what makes the corresponding system behaviours difficult to understand … Such drivers are, for example: (1) increasing system sizes, (2) reduced redundancies due to attempts to save resources (implying a loss of safety margins), (3) denser networks (creating increasing interdependencies between critical parts of the network, see Figs 2 and 4), and (4) a high pace of innovation35 (producing uncertainties or ‘unknown unknowns’). Could these developments create a ‘‘global time bomb’’? (See Box 3.) ”
82. Carlos de Castro Carranza – ¿Lograremos evitar el colapso ecológico-social? – Grupo de Energía y Dinámica de Sistemas, 21/09/2014 – http://www.eis.uva.es/energiasostenible/?p=2224
    “Si se sobrepasan los límites temporalmente, es inevitable el colapso (línea roja) o la oscilación (línea amarilla), en general además se deteriora el límite y este disminuye al aproximarnos al límite y sobrepasarlo (oscilación decreciente).”
83. Donnella Meadows, Jørgen Randers, Dennis Meadows (2004) – Los Límites del crecimiento: 30 años después – Galaxia Gutenberg – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – ISBN: 8481096016 – 514 Págs.
    “La extralimitación y la oscilación sólo pueden ocurrir si el medio ambiente sufre un daño insignificante durante períodos de sobrecarga y logra repararse por si mismo con la rapidez suficiente para recuperarse plenamente durante períodos de menos carga.” (p. 268)
84. Aaron Donohoe et al (2014) – Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2 – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1412190111 – Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology – 4 autores
    “A simple linear radiative feedback framework is used to explain this counterintuitive behavior. It is found that the timescale over which OLR returns to its initial value after a CO2 perturbation depends sensitively on the magnitude of shortwave (SW) feedbacks … Altogether, these results suggest that, although greenhouse gas forcing predominantly acts to reduce OLR, the resulting global warming is likely caused by enhanced ASR.”
85. Antonio García-Olivares et al (2011) – A global renewable mix with proven technologies and common materials – Energy Policy 41:561–574 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.11.018 – Instituto de Ciencias del Mar, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Barcelona – http://www.imedea.uib-csic.es/master/cambioglobal/Modulo_1_03/Ballabrera_Diciembre_2011/Articulos/Garcia-Olivares.2011.pdf – 4 autores
    “However, lithium, nickel and platinum could become limiting materials for future vehicles fleet if no global recycling systems were implemented and rechargeable zinc–air batteries would not be developed; 60% of the current copper reserves would have to be employed in the implementation of the proposed solution.”
86. Kevin Anderson (2012) – Real clothes for the Emperor: Facing the challenges of climate change – Cabot Institute Annual Lecture 2012 – University of Bristol, 06/11/2012 – Professor of Energy and Climate Change, University of Manchester, Tyndall Centre – http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cabot/documents/anderson-ppt.pdf
    “Energy system design lives (lock-in); Supply technologies 25-50 years; Large scale infrastructures and Built environment 30-100 years; Aircraft and ships ~30 years ”
87. Roger Fouquet (2010) – The slow search for solutions: Lessons from historical energy transitions by sector and service – Energy Policy 38:6586–6596 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.06.029 – Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3) + Ikerbasque (Basque Foundation for Science)
    “This paper reviews past energy transitions by sector and service to identify features that may be useful for future transitions … Based on past experiences, a complete transition to a low carbon economy is likely to be very slow.”
88. Steven J Davis and Robert H. Socolow (2014) – Commitment accounting of CO2 emissions – Environmental Research Letters 9 084018 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084018 – Department of Earth System Science, University of California; Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Princeton University – http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/8/084018/pdf/1748-9326_9_8_084018.pdf
    “Reducing CO2 emissions will ultimately mean retiring CO2-emitting infrastructure more quickly than it is built … By revealing the emissions that are anticipated decades into the future, commitment accounting of CO2 emissions may help to integrate analyses of capital investment, cumulative emissions, and damages from climate warming. ”
89. Ward Carroll – How an Auto Giant Got Ready for War – Military.com – http://www.military.com/veteran-jobs/career-advice/military-transition/how-an-auto-giant-got-ready-for-war.html
    “Although GM might have been organizationally postured to answer the military’s needs better than most large American companies at the time, that still didn’t make the undertaking easy or immediate. In essence, GM was being asked by the United States government to start a new business.”
90. Thomas S. Kuhn (1962) – The Structure of Scientific Revolutions – University of Chicago Press
    “… the act of judgment that leads scientists to reject a previously accepted theory is always based upon more than a comparison of that theory with the world. The decision to reject one paradigm is always the decision to accept another, and the judgment leading to that decision involves the comparison of both paradigms with nature and with each other.”
91. Carlos de Castro Carranza (2013) – En defensa de una teoría Gaia orgánica – Ecosistemas 22:113-118 doi:10.7818/ECOS.2013.22-2.17 – Departamento de Física Aplicada, Universidad de Valladolid – http://www.revistaecosistemas.net/index.php/ecosistemas/article/download/744/732
    “Teleológico es un término inventado y empleado por los filósofos, como Kant, para los cuales significa que tiene o posee propósitos o fines (Sagan y Whiteside 2004, Jax 2010), lo que de hecho se puede aplicar a las máquinas humanas, diseñadas con un propósito asignado externamente por la persona que la fabricó, pero también se aplica a los organismos (Volk 2009) … La huida en la biología del término teleológico llega a la paradoja de inventarse términos nuevos como teleonomía (Monod 1981).”
92. Piet J. M. Verschuren (2001) – Holism versus Reductionism in Modern Social Science Research – Quality & Quantity 35:389-405 – Department of Methodology, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Nijmegen
    “A second closely related risk of reductionistic research is an observational bias that I will call the syndrome of ‘a tunnel view’, which has a temporal and a spatial variant. In a temporal sense the syndrome means that the researcher isolates an object from its historical context … The spatial variant of ‘tunnel vision’ has two sub-variants.”
93. Peter M. Senge (1980) – A system dynamics approach to investment function formulation and testing – Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 14:269-280 doi:10.1016/0038-0121(80)90026-9 – System Dynamic Group, Alfred P. Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    “This paper discusses system dynamics techniques for formulating and testing dynamic theories of capital investment … The generalized investment function is shown to include six disequilibrium hypotheses omitted from the SNC and to better fit quarterly data for capital appropriations in durable and nondurable manufacturing industries.”
94. Hans J. Schellnhuber (1999) – Earth system analysis and the Second Copernican Revolution – Nature 402:C19-C23 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – http://www.iterations.com/protected/dwnload_files/earth_system.pdf
    “This means that we are confronted ultimately with a control problem, a geo-cybernetic task that can be summed up in three fundamental questions [ref]. ”
95. The Global Environmental Change Programmes – Earth System Science: An Integrated Approach – Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 43:21-27 doi:10.1080/00139150109604504
    “For decades, the scientific community has widely discussed the idea that Earth’s environment is an integrated global system, and major research findings have documented this as fact. A summary of these findings, including human influence on global environmental change and the need for a new system of science, has recently been published.”
96. James R. Beniger (1986) – The control revolution: technological and economic origins of the information society – Harvard University Press – ISBN-13: 978-0674169869 – 508 Págs.
97. Dirk Helbing (2013) – Globally networked risks and how to respond – Nature 497:51–59 doi:10.1038/nature12047 – Risk Center, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology – http://www.uvm.edu/~cdanfort/csc-reading-group/helbing-nature-2013.pdf
    “Today’s strongly connected, global networks have produced highly interdependent systems that we do not understand and cannot control well. These systems are vulnerable to failure at all scales, posing serious threats to society, even when external shocks are absent. As the complexity and interaction strengths in our networked world increase, man-made systems can become unstable, creating uncontrollable situations even when decision-makers are well-skilled, have all data and technology at their disposal, and do their best. To make these systems manageable, a fundamental redesign is needed. A ‘Global Systems Science’ might create the required knowledge and paradigm shift in thinking.”
98. Donella H. Meadows (1999) – Leverage points. Places to Intervene in a System – The Sustainability Institute – The Sustainability Institute – http://www.thesolutionsjournal.com/node/419
    “Places to Intervene in a System (In Increasing Order of Effectiveness): 9. Constants, parameters, numbers (subsidies, taxes, standards); 8. Material Stocks and Flows; 7. Regulating Negative Feedback Loops; 6. Driving Positive Feedback Loops; 5. Information Flows; 4. The Rules of the System (incentives, punishment, constraints); 3. The Power of Self-Organization – The distribution of power over the rules of the system; 2. The Goals of the System 1. The Mindset or Paradigm – its goals, power structure, rules, its culture – out of which the system arises.”
99. Jordi Pigem (2010) – Revalorar el món: Els valors de la sostenibilitat – Consell Assessor per al Desenvolupament Sostenible – Generalitat de Catalunya, juliol de 2010 – Premi de Filosofia de l’Institut d’Estudis Catalans – http://www15.gencat.cat/cads/AppPHP/images/stories/publicacions/paperssostenibilitat/2010/pds_15_web.pdf
    “La visió materialista que hem heretat veu la Terra com un mer magatzem de recursos i contempla el món com una suma arbitrària d’objectes, a punt per a ser posseïts, classificats, manipulats i consumits. Aquesta visió del món és insostenible en el doble sentit de la paraula: és insostenible per les seves conseqüències ecològiques, però també és insostenible en el sentit que no es pot sostenir conceptualment, no és pot defensar amb arguments, tal com diem que una proposició o doctrina són insostenibles. La crisi econòmica i la crisi ecològica mostren avui que el materialisme no funciona.”
100. Donnella Meadows, Jørgen Randers, Dennis Meadows (2004) – Los Límites del crecimiento: 30 años después – Galaxia Gutenberg – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – ISBN: 8481096016 – 514 Págs.
     “Uno de los supuestos más extraños de los actuales modelos mentales es la idea de que un mundo de moderación tenga que ser un mundo de estricto control gubernamental centralizado. Para una economía sostenible, este tipo de control no es posible, deseable ni necesario.” (p. 404)
101. Bernard Lietaer et al (2008) – White Paper on All the Options for Managing a Systemic Bank Crisis, October 2008 – Center for Sustainable Resources, University of California – http://www.lietaer.com/images/White_Paper_on_Systemic_Banking_Crises_final.pdf
     “The surprising insight from a systemic perspective is that sustainable vitality involves diversifying the types of currencies and institutions and introducing new ones that are designed specifically to increase the availability of money in its prime function as a medium of exchange, rather than for savings or speculation.”
102. S. Holling and Gary K. Meffe (1996) – Command and control and the pathology of natural resource management – Conservation Biology 10:328–337 – Department of Zoology, University of Florida; University of Georgia’s Savannah River Ecology Laboratory – http://www.calwater.ca.gov/Admin_Record/E-025180.pdf
     “We discuss several aspects of ecosystem pattern and dynamics at large scales that provide insight into ecosystem resilience, and we propose a “Golden Rule” of natural resource management that we believe is necessary for sustainability: management should strive to retain critical types and ranges of natural variation in resource systems in order to maintain their resiliency.”
103. Jorgen Randers (2000) – From limits to growth to sustainable development or SD (sustainable development) in a SD (system dynamics) perspective – System Dynamics Review 16:213-224 doi:10.1002/1099-1727(200023)16:3<213::AID-SDR197>3.0.CO;2-E – Norwegian School of Management in Oslo – http://web.boun.edu.tr/ali.saysel/Esc578/Randers2000.pdf
     “It is, of course, fully possible for humanity to avoid overshoot and decline, if one could just agree to try. Given a benevolent global dictatorship, the transition to sustainability could be made smoothly without much decline in the quality of life. ”
104. Jorge Riechmann y Óscar Carpintero (2014) – Los inciertos pasos desde aquí hasta allá: alternativas socioecológicas y transiciones poscapitalistas – Cicode, Universidad de Granada
     “¿Por qué lo llaman ‘economía de guerra’ cuando quieren decir –deberían decir– ecosocialismo?”
105. L. Wang and P.C. Young (1988) – Direct Digital Pole-Assignment Control System Design for Multivariable Systems Based on Input-Output State Variable Feedback – International Conference on Control – Lancaster University
     “A practical discrete time approach to pole-assignment for SISO systems via state variable feedback is extended to MIMO systems. A proper definition of non-minimal state space form and its controllability conditions are given and the results are illustrated by numerical examples.”
106. Maarten M. Ottens (2010) – Limits to Systems Engineering – Philosophy of Engineering and Technology 2:109-122 doi:10.1007/978-90-481-2804-4_10 – Delft University of Technology + Johns Hopkins University
     “Two Kinds of Boundaries (I) In our everyday life we frequently encounter physical boundaries … (II) We also encounter metaphorical boundaries. An example is boundaries to what you deem socially acceptable. If someone ‘crosses the line’ with regard to their behavior to you, they cross a metaphorical boundary.”
107. Ivan Illich – Wikipedia, 16/11/2011 – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_Illich
     “The main notion of Ivan Illich is the concept of counterproductivity: when institutions of modern industrial society impede their purported aims. For example, Ivan Illich calculated that, in America in the 1970s, if you add the time spent to work to earn the money to buy a car, the time spent in the car (including traffic jam), the time spent in the health care industry because of a car crash, the time spent in the oil industry to fuel cars …etc., and you divide the number of kilometres traveled per year by that, you obtain the following calculation: 10000 km per year per person divided by 1600 hours per year per American equals 6 km per hour. So the real speed of a car would be about 3.7 miles per hour. ”
108. The Biggest Ponzi Scheme In The History Of The World – The Economic Collapse, 23/06/2013 – http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-biggest-ponzi-scheme-in-the-history-of-the-world
     “Did you know that you are involved in the most massive Ponzi scheme that has ever existed?”
109. Sharon Astyk (2009) – Formulating a future: the case for antimodernism – Energy Bulletin, 12/04/2009 – Speaking Truth to Power – http://sharonastyk.com/2009/04/12/not-a-bug-an-undocumented-feature-the-case-for-anti-modernism-part-i/
     “The whole and most fundamental premise of modernity is this that because progress always goes forward, there is no need to consider the future.”
110. Jack Homer (2014) – Levels of evidence in system dynamics modeling – System Dynamics Review 30:75–80 doi:10.1002/sdr.1514 – Homer Consulting + Massachusetts Institute of Technology Research Affiliate – http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/sdr.1514/pdf
     “It is possible to build a model that is evidence based and behaves as it should, but which has an inadequate boundary or time horizon to fulfill its intended purpose, or is unable to portray important policies or scenarios. That is why we employ a wide variety of tests for determining a model’s value, addressing not only reliability but also usefulness, completeness, clarity, explanatory power and insight (Forrester and Senge, 1980; Sterman, 2000, ch. 21).”
111. Axel Leijonhufvud (2011) – Nature of an economy – Center for Economic Policy Analysis – UCLA and University of Trento – http://www.cepr.org/sites/default/files/policy_insights/PolicyInsight53.pdf
     “We have imposed our pre-conceived methods on economic reality in such manner as to distort our understanding of it. We start from optimal choice and fashion an image of reality to fit it. We transmit this distorted picture of what the world is like to our students by insisting that they learn to perceive the subject matter trough the lenses of our method.”
112. Carla Ravaioli (1995) – Economists and the Environment: A Diverse Dialogue – Zed Books – ISBN-13: 978-1856492775 – 192 Págs.
     “Nobel Laureate Friedman: If we were living on the capital, the market price would go up. The price of truly limited resources will rise over time. The price of oil has not been rising, so we’re not living on the capital. When that is no longer true, the price system will give a signal and the price of oil will go up. As always happens with a truly limited resource. Ravaioli: Of course the discovery of new oil wells has given the illusion of unlimited oil … Nobel Laureate Friedman: Why an illusion? Ravaioli: Because we know it’s a limited resource. Nobel Laureate Friedman: Excuse me, it’s not limited from an economic point of view. You have to separate the economic from the physical point of view. Many of the mistakes people make come from this. Like the stupid projections of the Club of Rome.”
113. E. Goeller and Alvin M. Weinberg (1978) – The Age of Substitutability – The American Economic Review 68:1-11 – Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Institute For Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge – http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/2951003.pdf
     “On the basis of their scrutiny of these geological and technological data, Goeller and Weinberg pronounce the principle of infinite substitutability: With the exception of phosphorus and some trace elements for agriculture, mainly cobalt, copper and zinc, and finally the CH_x (coal, oil and gas), society can exist on near-inexhaustible resources for an indefinite period.”
114. la ley de la oferta y la demanda no se cumple nunca en términos agregados multiproducto
115. Gail Tverberg – Oil Price Slide – No Good Way Out – Our Finite World, 05/11/2014 – http://ourfiniteworld.com/2014/11/05/oil-price-slide-no-good-way-out/
     “Most people assume that of course, oil prices will rise. That is what they learned from supply and demand discussions in Economics 101. I think that what we learned in Econ 101 is wrong because the supply and demand model most economists use ignores important feedback loops. (See my post Why Standard Economic Models Don’t Work–Our Economy is a Network.)”
116. Antonio García-Olivares – El cénit del petróleo y de los combustibles fósiles y sus críticos – The Oil Crash, 02/03/2014 – http://crashoil.blogspot.com.es/2014/03/realmente-es-inmimente-el-peak-oil.html
     “Nuestra hipótesis es que los modelos basados en un horizonte móvil de explotación en función del precio son útiles en situaciones con infinitos recursos que explotar, cuando la respuesta al precio es elástica, pero que los modelos de tipo Hubbert, basados en la URR, son mejores para modelar el comportamiento a largo plazo cuando la respuesta al precio se vuelve inelástica.”
117. Antonio García-Olivares – Sobre los recursos supuestamente sustituibles de la economía global – The Oil Crash, 21/07/2014 – http://crashoil.blogspot.com.es/2014/07/sobre-los-recursos-supuestamente.html
     “Si Capital + energía es capaz de producir cualquier cosa que sea necesaria para sustituir a cualquier recurso que se vuelva escaso, entonces la física y la química, con sus principios de conservación, sus leyes termodinámicas y sus cuidadosos estudios sobre los procesos que son posibles en la naturaleza, todas estas ciencias sobran.”
118. Frank P. Ramsey (1928) – A mathematical theory of saving – The Economic Journal 38:543-559 – King’s College, Cambridge – http://folk.uio.no/gasheim/zRam1928.pdf –
     “How much of its income should a nation save? … One point should perhaps be emphasized more particularly: it is assumed that we do not discount later enjoyments in comparison with earlier ones, a practice which is ethically indefensible and arises merely from the weakness of imagination; we shall however, include … such a rate of discount in some of our investigations.”
119. Dirk Loehr (2012) – The euthanasia of the rentier – A way toward a steady-state economy? – Ecological Economics 84:232–239 doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.11.006 – Trier University of Applied Sciences, Environment Campus Birkenfeld
     “In contrast to the statements of the Club of Rome (Meadows et al., 1972: “limits of growth”), a clean growth of limits is stressed. Hence, “sustainability” is defined in terms of engineering.”
120. The Future We Want – UNFCCC, 22/06/2012 – http://www.uncsd2012.org/content/documents/727THE%20FUTURE%20WE%20WANT%20-%20FINAL%20DOCUMENT.pdf
     “We recognize that the planet Earth and its ecosystems are our home and that Mother Earth is a common expression in a number of countries and regions and we note that some countries recognize the rights of nature in the context of the promotion of sustainable development. We are convinced that in order to achieve a just balance among the economic, social and environment needs of present and future generations, it is necessary to promote harmony with nature.”
121. Clive L. Spash (2011) – Editorial: Terrible Economics, Ecosystems and Banking – Environmental Values 20:141-145 doi:10.3197/096327111X12997574391562 – http://www.clivespash.org/Spash_TEEB_2011_EV_v20_no2_final.pdf
     “Why do conservation biologists, ecologists and other natural scientists working on environmental problems feel the need to copy, or rather parody, a narrow economic discourse? This editorial criticises this approach with reference to the UN’s report The Economics of Biodiversity and the extension of tradable permits to such areas as endangered species and wetlands.”
122. Adam Smith (1776) – An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations – University of Chicago Press – ISBN-13: 978-0226763743 – 1152 Págs. –
     “The word VALUE, it is to be observed, has two different meanings, and sometimes expresses the utility of some particular object, and sometimes the power of purchasing other goods which the possession of that object conveys. The one may be called ‘value in use;’ the other, ‘value in exchange.’ The things which have the greatest value in use have frequently little or no value in exchange; and, on the contrary, those which have the greatest value in exchange have frequently little or no value in use. Nothing is more useful than water: but it will purchase scarce any thing; scarce any thing can be had in exchange for it. A diamond, on the contrary, has scarce any value in use; but a very great quantity of other goods may frequently be had in exchange for it.”
123. Gro Harlem Brundtland et al (1987) – Our Common Future: Report on the World Commission on Environment and Development – United Nations – http://www.worldinbalance.net/pdf/1987-brundtland.pdf – 20 autores
     ‘‘Meet the needs and aspirations of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.’’
124. Paul Johnson et al (2007) – Reclaiming the Definition of Sustainability – Environmental Science and Pollution Research 14:60-66 doi:10.1065/espr2007.01.375 – Greenpeace Research Laboratories, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Exeter
     “In the subsequent two years, around 140 alternative and variously-modified definitions of ‘sustainable development’ emerged. Currently, it has been estimated that some three hundred definitions of ‘sustainability’ and ‘sustainable development’ exist broadly within the domain of environmental management and the associated disciplines which link with it, either directly or indirectly.”
125. Cutler J. Cleveland et al (2000) – Aggregation and the role of energy in the economy – Ecological Economics 32:301-317 doi:10.1016/S0921-8009(99)00113-5 – Department of Geography, University of Illinois – http://www.dieoff.org/cleveland.pdf – 4 autores
     “Analysis of Granger causality and cointegration indicate a causal relationship running from quality- adjusted energy to GDP, but not from the unadjusted energy index.”
126. Jørgen Randers (2012) – The real message of the Limits to Growth: a plea for forward-looking global policy – Gaia-Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society 21:102-105 – Professor of climate strategy at the BI Norwegian Business School – http://brage.bibsys.no/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11250/93630/Randers_Gaia_2012.pdf
     “It remains an open question whether economic growth without growing physical impact is feasible. It is possible in principle, but has not yet been observed in practice. The Limits to Growth did not seek to resolve this question, and the autores were split in their views on whether full decoupling can be realized.”
127. Bithas and P. Kalimeris (2014) – Re‐estimating the decoupling effect: Is there an actual transition towards a less energy‐intensive economy? – Energy 51:78–84 doi:10.1016/j.energy.2012.11.033 – Research Team on Environmental Economics and Sustainable Development, Department of Economics and Regional Development, Panteion University
     “In 1996, the E/GDP per Capita reaches its highest peak so far. Evidence of a small decline in energy intensity appears as of 1997 which seems to stabilize from 2002 to 2009. In sum, according to the empirical estimates of the E/GDP per Capita ratio that we propose, no substantial evidence of even relative decoupling of energy required for the production of a per Capita unit of GDP can be traced. ”
128. Iñigo Capellán-Pérez et al (2012) – World Limits Model (WoLiM) 1.0 – Model Documentation – Grupo de Energía y Dinámica de Sistemas, 01/05/2012 – http://www.eis.uva.es/energiasostenible/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/WoLiM_1.0-Model-Documentation_July-2014.pdf
     “Our results indicate that in the last 40 years, the world TP energy intensity has improved at a yearly average rate of 1.15 % ((Smil, 2005) estimated 1% improvement for the 20th century). This evolution has not been uniform, and since the year 2000 its value has remained constant at around 10 EJ / 2011 US$. As signaled and studied by (Baksi and Green, 2007), an important question for future scenarios is whether a 1% rate of decline in the global average annual energy intensity can be improved upon over the course of the 21st century. Or, alternatively, if it will become more difficult to maintain a 1% rate of decline, as the best improvements in energy efficiency, and the largest gains from sectoral output shifts, are ‘used up’.”
129. según quedó bien establecido a finales del siglo XIX por Rudolf Clausius
130. Juan Antolín-Diaz et al (2014) – Is economic growth permanently lower? – Fulcrum Research Notes: Financial Times – Fulcrum Asset Management + London School of Economics – https://www.fulcrumasset.com/assets/Document/FulcrumResearchFollowingtheTrend.pdf – 3 autores
     “Indeed, for the last five years, forecasts of US and global real GDP growth have been persistently biased upwards … This allows us to uncover a substantial decline in long-run growth in the US and other industrialised economies. ”
131. Frederic S. Lee (2009) – A History of Heterodox Economics: Challenging the Mainstream in the Twentieth Century – Routledge – Professor of Economics, University of Missouri-Kansas City – ISBN-13: 978-0415777148 – 368 Págs. – http://heterodoxnews.com/APPENDIX–formatted.pdf
     “Scientists that do not “fit” into this structure of dependency, do not produce the right kind of knowledge, can be marginalized and excluded from the community, but still exist within the field or they can be cleansed from the field altogether.”
132. Max Weber (1981) – La Ciencia como vocación – En: “El político y el científico”, Madrid: Alianza Editorial, 1981, pp. 180-231
     “Todo ‘logro’ científico implica nuevas ‘cuestiones’ y ha de ser superado y ha de envejecer. Todo el que quiera dedicarse a la ciencia tiene que contar con esto.”
133. Herman E. Daly (1974) – The Economics of the Steady State – American Economic Review 64:15-21 – Louisiana State University
134. John Stuart Mill (1848) – Principles of Political Economy with Some of Their Applications to Social Philosophy – En: Collected Works of John Stuart Mill, Vol. II, III, Toronto / Buffalo (University of Toronto Press) / London (Routledge & Kegan Paul), repr.: 1965, section ‘Of the Stationary State’
     “If the earth must lose that great portion of its pleasantness which it owes to things that the unlimited increase of wealth and population would extirpate from it, for the mere purpose of enabling it to support a larger, but not a better or happier population, I sincerely hope, for the sake of posterity, that they will be content to be stationary, long before necessity compels them to it.”
135. Adam Smith estat estacionari
136. Herman Daly (2014) – Three Limits to Growth – Daly News, 04/09/2014 – http://steadystate.org/three-limits-to-growth/
     “As production (real GDP) grows, its marginal utility declines, because we satisfy our most important needs first. Likewise, the marginal disutilitiy inflicted by growth increases, because as the economy expands into the ecosphere we sacrifice our least important ecological services first (to the extent we know them).”
137. Herman E. Daly (1992) – The Steady State Economy: Alternative to Growthmania – Steady-State Economics (Earthscan, 1992), pp. 180–94 – The World Bank – ISBN-13: 978-1559630719 – 318 Págs.
138. Herman Daly – Eight Fallacies about Growth – The Daly News, 06/08/2012 – http://steadystate.org/eight-fallacies-about-growth/
     “Globalization was a policy choice of our elites, not an imposed necessity. Free trade agreements had to be negotiated. Who negotiated and signed the treaties? Who has pushed for free capital mobility and signed on to the World Trade Organization? Who wants to enforce trade-related intellectual property rights with trade sanctions? The Bretton Woods system was a major achievement aimed at facilitating international trade after WWII. It fostered trade for mutual advantage among separate countries. Free capital mobility and global integration were not part of the deal. That came with the WTO and the effective abandonment by the World Bank and IMF of their Bretton Woods charter.”
139. Herman E. Daly and Kenneth N. Townsend (1993) – Sustainable Growth: An Impossibility Theorem – En: Valuing the Earth: Economics Ecology Ethics – ISBN 0-262-54068-1 – MIT Press – School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland – http://dieoff.org/page37.htm
     “In its physical dimensions the economy is an open subsystem of the earth ecosystem, which is finite, non-growing, and materially closed. As the economic subsystem grows it incorporates an ever greater proportion of the total ecosystem into itself and must reach a limit at 100 percent, if not before. Therefore its growth is not sustainable. The term “sustainable growth” when applied to the economy is a bad oxymoron—self-contradictory as prose, and unevocative as poetry.”
140. Karl William Kapp (1950) – The Social Costs of Private Enterprise – University of the City of New York – http://www.kwilliam-kapp.de/documents/SCOPE.pdf
     “The author holds the view that the institutionalized system of decision-making in a system of business enterprise has a built-in tendency to disregard those negative effects on the environment that are “external” to the decision-making unit. Even if an individual firm intended (and would be, in a financial position, as many oligopolists obviously are to avoid the negative effects of its applied technology, it can do so only by raising its costs; that is, by deliberately reducing its profit margin and its profit-earning capacity. Hence, a system of decision-making operating in accordance with the principle of investment for profit cannot be expected to proceed in any way other than by trying to reduce its costs whenever possible and by ignoring those losses that can be shifted to third persons or to society at large.”
141. Ezra J. Mishan (1967) – The Costs of Economic Growth – F.A. Praeger – London School of Economics – http://www.thesocialcontract.com/pdf/seventeen-one/tsc_17_1_mishan.pdf
     “Large-scale immigration is not only likely to be socially unsettling, in an economy as close to full employment as that of the United Kingdom and the United States has been since the war, it is almost sure to have a net inflationary impact on the economy.”
142. Herman E. Daly (2008) – Special report: Economics blind spot is a disaster for the planet – New Scientist 2678 – School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland – http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20026786.300-special-report-economics-blind-spot-is-a-disaster-for-the-planet.html
     “It was my job, as senior economist in the bank’s environment department, to review the draft and offer suggestions. I said drawing such a picture was a great idea, but it really had to include the environment. As drawn, the economy was receiving inputs from nowhere and expelling outputs back to nowhere.”
143. Herman Daly – An Economics Fit for Purpose in a Finite World – The Daly News, 03/10/2014 – http://steadystate.org/an-economics-fit-for-purpose-in-a-finite-world
     “Causation is both bottom-up and top-down: material cause from the bottom, and final cause from the top, as Aristotle might say. Economics, or as I prefer, “political economy,” is in between, and serves to balance desirability (the lure of right purpose) with possibility (the constraints of finitude). We need an economics fit for purpose in a finite and entropic world.”
144. Jorge Riechmann y Joaquim Sempere (2000) – Sociología y medio ambiente – Sintesis Editorial – ISBN-13: 978-8477387534 – 352 Págs.
     “La poca gente que hay peligrosa en el mundo es la que no reconoce límites; la que ve las fronteras como humo, lo prohibido como niebla, los finales, si mucho, como punto y aparte. José Viñals “
145. Robert U. Ayres and Benjamin Warr (2009) – The Economic Growth Engine: How Energy and Work Drive Material Prosperity – Edward Elgar Publishing – IIASA Laxenburg + INSEAD Fontainebleau; Center for the Management of Environmental Resources (CMER), INSEAD – ISBN-13: 978-1848441828 – 448 Págs.
     “The most surprising conclusion is that the exergy efficiency of transportation probably peaked around 1960, when gasoline engines (in the US automobile fleet) operated at higher compression ratios and wasted much less power on accessories than it is true today.” (p. 126)
146. Paul Krugman – How Did Economists Get It So Wrong? – The New York Times, 02/09/2009 – http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/magazine/06Economic-t.html
     “I. Mistaking Beauty For Truth; II. From Smith To Keynes And Back; III. Panglossian Finance; IV. The Trouble With Macro; V. Nobody Could Have Predicted…; VI. The Stimulus Squabble; VII. Flaws and Frictions; VIII. Re-Embracing Keynes.”
147. Antonio Valero y Alicia Valero (2014) – Thanatia: the destiny of the Earth’s mineral resources – World Scientific Publishing – CIRCE, Center of Research for Energy Resources and Consumption, Universidad de Zaragoza – ISBN-13: 978-9814273930 – 672 Págs.
148. Antonio García-Olivares (2014) – El cénit de la energía y de los minerales y la futura economía de estado estacionario – The Oil Crash, 09/03/2014 – http://crashoil.blogspot.com.es/2014/03/como-sera-la-economia-tras-el-cenit-de.html
     “La energía útil u es la suma de una serie de aportaciones que proceden de las energías producidas por las fuentes habituales de potencia (petróleo, carbón, gas, nuclear, hidroeléctrica, renovables y biomasa) multiplicadas por sus factores respectivos de eficiencia de conversión a energía útil. Esto hace que la energía útil de la economía USA en el año 2000 tuviera una eficiencia global media del 13%.”
149. Geoff Davies – A Science of Economies? – Real-World Economics Review Blog, 10/03/2014 – http://rwer.wordpress.com/2014/03/10/a-science-of-economies/
     “Assumptions matter.  If one’s assumptions imply near-equilibrium, then one’s theory will never be able to reproduce a market crash.  If you assume the economy is close to optimal, then any attempt to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will move it from the optimum and therefore seem expensive, even though efficient and inexpensive technologies are available.  (Fortunately many economists have moved on from that argument, notably Nicholas Stern of the UK.) ”
150. Steve Keen (2009) – Bailing out the titanic with a thimble – Economic Analysis and Policy 39: – School of Economics & Finance, University of Western Sydney – https://keenomics.s3.amazonaws.com/debtdeflation_media/papers/v39_i1_2_keen.pdf
     “Ever since Milton Friedman’s Monetary History of the United States (Friedman and Schwartz, 1971), neoclassical economists—including the current Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke (Bernanke, 2002A)—have asserted that the Great Depression was caused by poor monetary policy by the then Federal Reserve [ref]. So much for that theory: today’s stark reality should make it unarguable that the real cause of Depression-scale financial crises is excessive private debt accumulated during a preceding speculative bubble—which accords with the ‘debt-deflation’ hypothesis first developed by Irving Fisher, and perfected by Hyman Minsky, rather than Milton’s tale of errant regulators. ”
151. Alan Greenspan – Testimony After The Committee of Government Oversight and Reform – Committee of Government Oversight and Reform, 23/10/2008 – http://clipsandcomment.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/greenspan-testimony-20081023.pdf
     “The whole intellectual edifice, however, collapsed in the summer of last year because the data inputted into the risk management models generally covered only the past two decades, a period of euphoria.”
152. Ida Kubiszewski et al (2013) – Beyond GDP: Measuring and achieving global genuine progress – Ecological Economics 93:57–68 doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.04.019 – Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University – 7 autores
     “While global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has increased more than three-fold since 1950, economic welfare, as estimated by the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), has actually decreased since 1978.“
153. James K. Doyle (1997) – The cognitive psychology of systems thinking – System Dynamics Review 13:253–265 doi:10.1002/(SICI)1099-1727(199723)13:3<253::AID-SDR129>3.0.CO;2-H – Department of Social Science and Policy Studies, Worcester Polytechnic Institute
     “This article describes how established research methods in cognitive psychology can be applied to answer questions about the ability of systems thinking interventions to improve the nature and quality of thought about complex systems … The article concludes with a discussion of the difficulties and long-term advantages of conducting the described research.”
154. Jay W. Forrester (1970) – Counterintuitive behavior of social systems – En: Collected Papers of Jay W. Forrester. Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1975, Wright-Allen Press – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – http://www.constitution.org/ps/cbss.pdf
     “Inability of the human mind to use its own mental models becomes clear when a computer model is constructed to reproduce the assumptions contained in a person’s mental model … By contrast to mental models, system dynamics simulation models are explicit about assumptions and how they interrelate.”
155. William A. Wagenaar and Sabato D. Sagaria (1975) – Misperception of exponential growth – Attention Perception & Psychophysics 18:416-422 doi:10.3758/BF03204114 – Institute for Perception TNO, Soesterberg; Pennsylvania State University
     “The size of the effect is considerable; it is not unusual that two-thirds of the subjects produce estimates below 10% of the normative value. The effect increases with the exponent of the stimulus series, and with addition of a constant to the stimulus series. Neither special instructions about the nature of exponential growth nor daily experience with growth processes enhanced the extrapolations.”
156. El crecimiento exponencial explicado doblando una hoja de papel una y otra vez – La Información, 19/04/2012 – http://www.microsiervos.com/archivo/ciencia/crecimiento-exponencial-papel.html
     “El ejemplo se basa en doblar por la mitad una y otra vez una hoja de papel finísimo (de 0,001 cm de grosor); esta es la altura que alcanzaría tras cierto número de dobleces: 10: la hoja tendría 1 cm de grosor … 25 más alta que el Empire State; 40: la altitud a la que orbitan los satélites; 45: podría llegar hasta la Luna… y volver.”
157. Tom Murphy – Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist – Do the Math, 10/04/2012 – http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/
     “El resultado es que con una tasa de crecimiento del 2,3% (elegido por comodidad para representar un aumento de 10 veces por siglo), alcanzaríamos la temperatura de ebullición dentro de unos 400 años [expresión de dolor por parte del economista]. Y esta afirmación no depende de la tecnología.”
158. William A. Wagenaar and Sabato D. Sagaria (1975) – Misperception of exponential growth – Attention Perception & Psychophysics 18:416-422 doi:10.3758/BF03204114 – Institute for Perception TNO, Soesterberg; Pennsylvania State University
     “Experiment III suggest that we are faced with a real functional impossibility: subjects cannot discriminate between functions with different exponents … Logarithmic representation would not serve this aim.”
159. Stanislas Dehaene et al (2008) – Log or Linear? Distinct Intuitions of the Number Scale in Western and Amazonian Indigene Cultures – Science 320:1217-1221 doi:10.1126/science.1156540 – INSERM, Cognitive Neuro-imaging Unit, Institut Fédératif de Recherche (IFR) + Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique, NeuroSpin center, IFR + Collège de France+ Université Paris-Sud
     “This indicates that the mapping of numbers onto space is a universal intuition and that this initial intuition of number is logarithmic. The concept of a linear number line appears to be a cultural invention that fails to develop in the absence of formal education.”
160. Booth Sweeney and John D. Sterman (2007) – Thinking about systems: student and teacher conceptions of natural and social systems – System Dynamics Review 23:285-312 – Director of SoL’s Education Partnership; Jay W. Forrester Professor of Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management and Director of the MIT System Dynamics Group
     “Despite these generally discouraging results, some people are able to think systemically. Developmental theory and empirical research offer some evidence that the development of systems intelligence is not age-related. For example, some research [refs] and anecdotal evidence [refs] shows that children as young as kindergarten age are able to grasp, at a rudimentary level, systems concepts and tools.”
161. Booth Sweeney and John D. Sterman (2007) – Thinking about systems: student and teacher conceptions of natural and social systems – System Dynamics Review 23:285-312 – Director of SoL’s Education Partnership; Jay W. Forrester Professor of Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management and Director of the MIT System Dynamics Group
     “A key skill in systems thinking is the ability to expand the boundary of one’s mental model to increase the range of feedbacks and factors considered [ref]. However, students and teachers alike tended not to describe factors outside the immediate boundary described by the elements of the scenario.”
162. Matthew A. Cronin et al (2009) – Why don’t well-educated adults understand accumulation? A challenge to researchers, educators, and citizens – Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 108:116-130 doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2008.03.003 – School of Management, George Mason University – 3 autores
     “People appear to employ heuristics that are intuitively appealing but erroneous—specifically, many use the correlation heuristic, reasoning that the output of the system (here, the stock) should ‘‘look like” (be highly correlated with) its inputs (here, the flows or net inflow). Such individuals fail to grasp the fundamental principle that any stock rises (falls) when the inflow exceeds (is less than) the outflow. The intuitive appeal of the correlation heuristic appears to be quite strong … Further, the frequency of use of the correlation heuristic increases as the flows become more complex than simple straight lines.
163. John D. Sterman (2008) – Risk communication on climate: Mental models and mass balance – Science 322:532-533 doi:10.1126/science.1162574 – Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology – http://stonehousestandingcircle.ca/sites/default/files/papers/StermanPolicyForum081024%20(2).pdf
     “People often assess system dynamics using a pattern-matching heuristic, assuming that the output of a system should “look like”—be positively correlated with—its inputs (12, 13). Although sometimes useful, correlational reasoning fails in systems with important accumulations.”
164. Matthew A. Cronin et al (2009) – Why don’t well-educated adults understand accumulation? A challenge to researchers, educators, and citizens – Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 108:116-130 doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2008.03.003 – School of Management, George Mason University – 3 autores
     “Rather, it appears that people often use intuitively appealing but erroneous heuristics such as assuming that the output of a system is positively correlated with its inputs. That is, people assume that the output (the stock) should ‘‘look like” the input (the flow or net flow). We denote such behavior the correlation heuristic. ”
165. John D. Sterman and Linda Booth Sweeney (2007) – Understanding Public Complacency about Climate Change: Adults’ mental models of climate change violate conservation of matter – Climatic Change 80:213-238 doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9107-5 – Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology – http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/StermanSweeney.pdf
     “The belief that emissions, atmospheric CO2, and temperature are correlated leads to the erroneous conclusion that a drop in emissions would soon cause a drop in CO2 concentrations and mean global temperature.”
166. Matthew A. Cronin and Cleotilde Gonzalez (2007) – Understanding the building blocks of dynamic systems – System Dynamics Review 23:1-17 doi:10.1002/sdr.356 – Assistant Professor of Management at George Mason University – http://www.hss.cmu.edu/departments/sds/ddmlab/papers/CroninGonzalezSDRINPRESS.pdf
     “We report three empirical studies intended to clarify why individuals misperceive the relationships between stocks and flows … Neither the domain familiarity nor increased motivation helped individuals improve their perception of stock and flow relationships; but it seems that the graphical representation directs attention to flows and not stocks, setting the stage for subsequent mistakes. Individuals attend to the most salient points of a graph rather than comprehending the overall accumulation over time.”
167. Matthew A. Cronin et al (2009) – Why don’t well-educated adults understand accumulation? A challenge to researchers, educators, and citizens – Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 108:116-130 doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2008.03.003 – School of Management, George Mason University – 3 autores
     “Stock–flow problems, even simple ones, are unintuitive and difficult, even for highly educated people with strong mathematics backgrounds, including calculus [refs]. For example, Booth Sweeney and Sterman (2000) presented graduate students at an elite university with a picture of a bathtub and graphs showing the inflow and outflow of water, then asked them to sketch the trajectory of the stock of water in the tub. Although the patterns were simple, fewer than half responded correctly. We denote such difficulties stock–flow (SF) failure. ”
168. John D. Sterman and Linda Booth Sweeney (2007) – Understanding Public Complacency about Climate Change: Adults’ mental models of climate change violate conservation of matter – Climatic Change 80:213-238 doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9107-5 – Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology – http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/StermanSweeney.pdf
     “Despite these generous criteria, fully 84% drew trajectories violating mass balance requirements … Three-fourths violate the equilibrium condition that CO2 stabilization requires emissions equal removal. A large majority, 63%, assert atmospheric CO2 can be stabilized while emissions into the atmosphere exceed removal from it. The violations of the equilibrium condition are large, averaging 2.8 GtC/year (compared to year 2000 emissions of about 6.5 GtC/year).”
169. John D. Sterman and Linda Booth Sweeney (2002) – Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding of Global Warming – System Dynamics Review 18(2) – Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology – http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/cloudy_skies1.pdf
     ”Subjects often select trajectories that violate conservation of matter. Many believe temperature responds immediately to changes in CO2 emissions or concentrations. Still more believe that stabilizing emissions near current rates would stabilize the climate, when in fact emissions would continue to exceed removal, increasing GHG concentrations and radiative forcing. Such beliefs support wait and see policies, but violate basic laws of physics. We discuss implications for education and public policy.”
170. John D. Sterman (1989) – Modeling managerial behavior: misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision making experiment – Management Science 35:321–339 doi:10.1287/mnsc.35.3.321 – Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology – http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/1988/proceed/sterm334.pdf “The estimation results identify several ‘misperceptions of feedback’ which account for the poor performance of the subjects. In particular, subjects are shown to be insensitive to the feedbacks from their decisions to the environment. Finally, the generality of the results is considered and implications for behavioral theories of aggregate social and economic dynamics are explored.”
171. David C. Lane (2000) – Should systems dynamics be described as ‘hard’ or ‘deterministic’ systems approach? – Systems Research and Behavioral Science 17:3–22 doi:10.1002/(SICI)1099-1743(200001/02)17:1<3::AID-SRES344>3.0.CO;2-7 – Operational Research Department, London School of Economics and Political Science, University of London
     “It is worth commenting that the above pair of discussions has avoided some of the more stridently realistic views expressed within the field of system dynamics. These include Forrester’s suggestion (quoted above) that the field’s principles capture the nature of social reality and the generally held position that people have `flawed cognitive maps of causal relations’ [ref]; i.e., mental models are not `correct’.”
172. Peter A. White (1992) – The anthropomorphic machine: causal order in nature and the world view of common sense – British Journal of Psychology 83:61–96 doi:10.1111/j.2044-8295.1992.tb02425.x – School of Psychology, University of Wales College of Cardiff
     “Results show that people are not naïve systems theorists: they produce fewer feedback loops than would be expected by chance and treat nature as an Aristotelian one-way causal hierarchy in which causal chains are overwhelmingly linear and causal influence is disseminated down from the top level of the system in an anthropomorphic manner involving the action of the causal powers of things.”
173. John D. Sterman and Linda Booth Sweeney (2002) – Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding of Global Warming – System Dynamics Review 18(2) – Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology – http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/cloudy_skies1.pdf
     “Subjects, however, regularly violate these basic physics. They consistently underestimate the delay in the response of temperature to changes in CO2 concentration, selecting trajectories in which temperature responds far too much and too fast. The vast majority believe that temperature should follow the same pattern as CO2 concentration, rising when CO2 is rising and falling when CO2 is falling. ”
174. John D. Sterman (2011) – Communicating climate change risks in a skeptical world – Climatic Change doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0189-3 – MIT Sloan School of Management – http://www.erb.umich.edu/Research/ColloquiaDocs/StermanClimaticChange2011.pdf
     “To be a prudent response to the risks of climate change, wait-and-see policies require short delays in all the links of a long causal chain, stretching from the detection of adverse climate impacts to the implementation of mitigation policies to the resulting emissions reductions to changes in atmospheric GHG concentrations to radiative forcing to surface warming to changes in ice cover, sea level, weather patterns, agricultural productivity, habitat loss and species distribution, extinction rates, and other impacts. Contrary to the logic of “wait and see” there are long delays in every link of the chain.”
175. John D. Sterman and Linda Booth Sweeney (2002) – Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding of Global Warming – System Dynamics Review 18(2) – Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology – http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/cloudy_skies1.pdf
     “Unfortunately, the wait-and-see strategy can fail spectacularly in systems with long time delays, multiple feedback processes, and other elements of dynamic complexity [refs]. More and more of the pressing problems facing us as managers and citizens alike involve long delays. The long time scale means there is little opportunity for learning through outcome feedback. Instead, we must rely on models of various types to help us project the likely dynamics of the system.”
176. John M. Anderies et al (2007) – Panaceas, uncertainty, and the robust control framework in sustainability science – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 104:15194-15199 doi:10.1073/pnas.0702655104 – School of Human Evolution and Social Change, + Global Institute of Sustainability – 4 autores
     “A critical challenge faced by sustainability science is to develop strategies to cope with highly uncertain social and ecological dynamics. This article explores the use of the robust control framework toward this end … we show that there are no panaceas: even mild robustness properties are difficult to achieve, and increasing robustness to some parameters (e.g., biological parameters) results in decreased robustness with respect to others (e.g., economic parameters) … we focus attention on the importance of a continual learning process and the use of robust control to inform this process.”
177. Christian Erik Kampmann andJohn D. Sterman (2014) – Do markets mitigate misperceptions of feedback? – System Dynamics Review 30:123–160 doi:10.1002/sdr.1515 – System Dynamics Group, MIT Sloan School of Management
     “Experimental studies of dynamic decision making generally show poor performance. Most, however, lack market mechanisms, specifically price setting, while economic theory suggests markets should mitigate individual decision errors … We find: …Markets moderate but do not eliminate misperceptions of feedback.”
178. Dirk Helbing (2013) – Globally networked risks and how to respond – Nature 497:51–59 doi:10.1038/nature12047 – Risk Center, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology – http://www.uvm.edu/~cdanfort/csc-reading-group/helbing-nature-2013.pdf
     “Furthermore, the combination of nonlinear interactions, network effects, delayed response and randomness may cause a sensitivity to small changes, unique path dependencies, and strong correlations, all of which are hard to understand, prepare for and manage. Each of these factors is already difficult to imagine, but this applies even more to their combination.”
179. Erling Moxnes (1998) – Not Only the Tragedy of the Commons: Misperceptions of Bioeconomics – Management Science 44:1234-1248 doi:10.1287/mnsc.44.9.1234 – Foundation for Research in Economics and Business Administration, SNF, Norway
     “Fisrt: delays …; Second: stocks and flows…; Third: nonlinearities…; Fourth: learning might be slow…”
180. Matthew A. Cronin et al (2009) – Why don’t well-educated adults understand accumulation? A challenge to researchers, educators, and citizens – Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 108:116-130 doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2008.03.003 – School of Management, George Mason University – 3 autores
     “Although most of the experiments allowed participants 10 min to finish the task, most of the participants finished much earlier. Many reported high confidence that their answers were correct, even when they were not.”
181. Jay W. Forrester (1970) – Counterintuitive behavior of social systems – En: Collected Papers of Jay W. Forrester. Cambridge, Mass.: Wright-Allen Press – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – http://www.constitution.org/ps/cbss.pdf
     “The human mind is not adapted to interpreting how social systems behave. Social systems belong to the class called multi-loop nonlinear feedback systems. In the long history of evolution it has not been necessary until very recent historical times for people to understand complex feedback systems. Evolutionary processes have not given us the mental ability to interpret properly the dynamic behavior of those complex systems in which we are now imbedded.”
182. Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne H. Ehrlich (2013) – Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided? – Proceedings of the Royal society B: Biological Sciences doi:10.1098/rspb.2012.2845 – Department of Biology, Stanford University
     “The forces of genetic and cultural selection were not creating brains or institutions capable of looking generations ahead; there would have been no selection pressures in that direction. Indeed, quite the opposite, selection probably favoured mechanisms to keep perception of the environmental background steady so that rapid changes (e.g. leopard approaching) would be obvious [132, pp. 135–136]. ”
183. Donnella Meadows, Jørgen Randers, Dennis Meadows (2004) – Los Límites del crecimiento: 30 años después – Galaxia Gutenberg – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – ISBN: 8481096016 – 514 Págs.
     “La pregunta central de World3: ‘¿Cómo van a interactuar la población mundial y la economía material en expansión con la capacidad de carga limitada de la Tierra y adaptarse a ella en los próximos decenios?’” (p. 233)
184. George E.P. Box and Norman R. Draper (1987) – Empirical Model-Building and Response Surfaces – John Wiley, New York – ISBN-13: 978-0471810339 – 688 Págs. – http://www.gbv.de/dms/ilmenau/toc/025308912.PDF
     “Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful … [so] the practical question is how wrong do they have to be to not be useful.”
185. Magne Myrtveit (2005) – The World Model Controversy – The System Dynamics Group – Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Bergen – https://bora.uib.no/bitstream/handle/1956/1974/WPSD1.05WorldControversy.pdf
     “In this essay I describe System Dynamics and econometrics; the scientific home bases of the two sides in the controversy … The controversy has evolved over three decades, and has not ended. The main questions are still relevant and subject to discussion among scientists, politicians, environmentalists, and ordinary people. ”
186. Toni Menninger (2014) – Growth in a Finite World: Sustainability and the Exponential Function – http://www.slideshare.net/amenning/growth-in-a-finite-world-sustainability-and-the-exponential-function
     “A quantity is said to grow exponentially (or geometrically) if it increases by a constant percentage or fractional rate per unit of time. In other words, the increase per unit of time is proportional to the quantity itself, in contrast with other types of growth (e. g. arithmetic, logistic).”
187. Donella H. Meadows et al (1972) – The Limits to Growth. A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project for the Predicament of Mankind – Universe Books New York – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – http://www.donellameadows.org/wp-content/userfiles/Limits-to-Growth-digital-scan-version.pdf – 4 autores
     “A quantity exhibits exponential growth when it increases by a constant percentage of the whole in a constant time period. A colony of yeast cells in which each cdl divides into two cells every 10 minutes is growing exponentially.”
188. Hans J. Schellnhuber (1999) – Earth system analysis and the Second Copernican Revolution – Nature 402:C19-C23 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – http://www.iterations.com/protected/dwnload_files/earth_system.pdf
     “This means that we are confronted ultimately with a control problem, a geo-cybernetic task that can be summed up in three fundamental questions [ref]. ”
189. Wilfrid Bach (1980) – The CO2 issue – what are the realistic options? – Climatic Change 3:3–5 doi:10.1007/BF02423165 – Center for Applied Climatology and Environ m en tal Studies, The University of Münster
     “[a] broad systems approach … to help define some ‘threshold’ value of CO2-induced climate change beyond which there would likely be a major disruption of the economic, social and political fabric of certain societies … An assessment of such a critical CO2- level ahead of time could help to define those climatic changes, which would be acceptable and those that should be averted if possible.”
190. Scenario for the derivation of global CO2 reduction targets and implementation strategies – Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen (WBGU) – March 1995 – Statement on the occasion of the First Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change in Berlin – http://www.wbgu.de/fileadmin/templates/dateien/veroeffentlichungen/sondergutachten/sn1995/wbgu_sn1995_engl.pdf
     “The special benefit of the inverse analytical approach is that climate is not seen as a problem of prediction, but as one of control: the future of the global environment depends to a significant extent on the CO2 emission profile E(t) of the next centuries, and this profile can be chosen, within certain limits, by humankind.”
191. Ragnar Frisch (1933) – Propagation Problems and Impulse Problems in Dynamic Economics – En: Economic essays in honour of Gustav Cassel – University of Oslo – http://www.sv.uio.no/econ/om/tall-og-fakta/nobelprisvinnere/ragnar-frisch/published-scientific-work/PPIP%5B1%5D.pdf
     “If a cyclical variation is analysed from the point of view of a free oscillation, we have to distinguish between two fundamental problems: first, the propagation problem; second, the impulse problem. ”
192. James M. Murphy et al (2014) – Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations – Climate Dynamics 43:2855-2885 doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2097-5 – 7 autores
     “Members of our earth system perturbed parameter ensemble (ESPPE) are competitive with CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in their simulations of historical climate.”
193. Jeroen van der Sluijs et al (1998) – Anchoring devices in science for policy: the case of consensus around climate sensitivity – Social Studies of Science 28:291-323 doi:10.1177/030631298028002004 – Department of Science, Technology and Society, Utrecht University
     “We show how the maintained consensus about … climate sensitivity operates as an `anchoring device’ in `science for policy’. In international assessments of the climate issue, the consensus-estimate of 1.5°C to 4.5°C for climate sensitivity has remained unchanged for two decades … We identify several ways in which the scientists achieved flexibility in maintaining the same numbers for climate sensitivity while accommodating changing scientific ideas.”
194. Wallace S. Broecker (1975) – Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming? – Science 189:460-463 doi:10.1126/science.189.4201.460 – Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory and Department of Geological Sciences, Columbia University
     “Once this happens, the exponential rise in the atmospheric carbon dioxide content will tend to become a significant factor and by early in the next century will have driven the mean planetary temperature beyond the limits experienced during the last 1000 years.”
195. Falkowski et al (2000) – The Global Carbon Cycle: A Test of Our Knowledge of Earth as a System – Science 290:291-296 doi:10.1126/science.290.5490.291 – Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University; Co-chairs of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) Working Group and lead autores – 17 autores
     “Our knowledge of the carbon cycle … is sufficiently extensive to permit us to conclude that … there is no natural ‘savior’ waiting to assimilate all the anthropogenically produced CO2 … Our knowledge is insufficient to describe the interactions between the components of the Earth system and the relationship between the carbon cycle and other biogeochemical and climatological processes. Overcoming this limitation requires a systems approach.”
196. Ying Sun et al (2014) – Impact of mesophyll diffusion on estimated global land CO2 fertilization – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1418075111 – Department of Geological Sciences, University of Texas at Austin – 6 autores
     “ The magnitude of CO2 fertilization underestimation matches the long-term positive growth bias in the historical atmospheric CO2 predicted by Earth system models. Our study will lead to improved understanding and modeling of carbon–climate feedbacks. ”
197. Klaus Hasselmann (1976) – Stochastic climate models – Part I. Theory – Tellus 28:473-485 doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490.1976.tb00696.x – Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie – http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1976.tb00696.x/pdf
     “Without stabilising feedback, the model predicts a continuous increase in climate variability … Stabilising feedback yields a statistically stationary climate probability distribution. Feedback also results in a finite degree of climate predictability, but for a stationary climate the predictability is limited to maximal skill parameters of order 0.5.”
198. Claude Frankignoul and Klaus Hasselmann (1977) – Stochastic climate models – Part II. Application to sea-surface temperature anomalies and thermocline variability – Tellus 29:289–305 doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490.1977.tb00740.x – Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie – ftp://mana.soest.hawaii.edu/pub/rlukas/LSASI/stochastic%20models/FrankignoulHasselmann.Tellus,1977.pdf
     “The model reproduces the principal features and orders of magnitude of the observed SST anomalies in mid-latitudes … The results suggest that short-time-scale atmospheric forcing should be regarded as a possible candidate for the origin of large-scale, low-period variability in the seasonal thermocline.”
199. H. Glanz et al (1988) – Exploring the concept of Climate Surprises. A review of the Literature on the Concept of Surprise and How It Is Related to Climate Change – Prepared for the U.S. Depatment of Energy, Office of Energy Research – National Center for Atmospheric Research – http://www.osti.gov/bridge/servlets/purl/666195-n7Ll3o/webviewable/666195.pdf – 6 autores
     “The report concludes that some kinds of surprises are simply unpredictable, but there are several types that could in some way be anticipated and assessed , and their negative effects forestalled.”
200. G. Lockwood (2001) – Abrupt and Sudden Climatic Transitions and Fluctuations: A Review – International Journal of Climatology 21:1153-1179 doi:10.1002/joc.630
     “The climatic system is viewed as a dissipative, highly non-linear system, under non-equilibrium conditions, and, as such, should be expected to have some unusual properties. These unusual properties include bifurcation points with marked instability just before the point, magnification of semi-periodic oscillations around bifurcation points, and variations in the strength of teleconnections with distance from equilibrium … The Holocene appears to be no more climatically benign than the similar period in the Eemian.”
201. Timothy M. Lenton et al (2008) – Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 105:1786-1793 doi:10.1073/pnas.0705414105 School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, + Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research – http://www.pnas.org/content/105/6/1786.full.pdf – 7 autores
     “Complexity, often used informally, has a specific meaning—the average number of trophic links per species (sometimes called linkage density). Connectance is linkage density divided by the number of species in the web (refs).”
202. Paul A. T. Higgins et al (2002) – Dynamics of climate and ecosystem coupling: abrupt changes and multiple equilibria – Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B 357:647-655 doi 10.1098/rstb.2001.1043 – Department of Biological Sciences, and Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences, Stanford University – 3 autores
     “Interactions between subunits of the global climate–biosphere system (e.g. atmosphere, ocean, biosphere and cryosphere) often lead to behaviour that is not evident when each subunit is viewed in isolation … the social and economic consequences of possible global changes are likely to be underestimated in most conventional analyses because these nonlinear, abrupt and irreversible responses are insufficiently considered.”
203. Susana L.D. Paiva et al (2014) – Global warming description using Daisyworld model with greenhouse gases – Biosystems 125:1–15 doi:10.1016/j.biosystems.2014.09.008 – Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, COPPE – Department of Mechanical Engineering – 4 autores
     “Numerical simulations are carried out showing the general qualitative behavior of the Daisyworld for different scenarios that includes solar luminosity variations and greenhouse gases effect. Nonlinear dynamics perspective is of concern discussing a way that helps the comprehension of the global warming phenomenon.”
204. Carlos de Castro Carranza (2013) – En defensa de una teoría Gaia orgánica – Ecosistemas 22:113-118 doi:10.7818/ECOS.2013.22-2.17
     “Puede que el darvinismo y el neodarvinismo expliquen para sus proponentes el origen y, también, el comportamiento ecológico de los organismos. Sin embargo, a partir de la escala de los ecosistemas tiene claras dificultades explicativas [refs]. Una teoría orgánica de Gaia no tiene pues por qué buscar la compatibilidad con la teoría de Darwin, ya que sus ámbitos de aplicación son diferentes.”
205. James Lovelock (2006) – La venjança de la Terra – Columna Edicions Barcelona – ISBN: 978-84-6640792-2 – 260 Págs.
     “Si un sol bacteri es dividís i repetís aquesta divisió cada vint minuts, sempre que no hi haguessin limitacions per al creixement i que el proveïment de menjar fos il·limitat, en només dos dies la progènie total pesaria tant com la Terra … Ara sabem que algunes propietats globals i el clima fixen els límits que aporten estabilitat … Si el sistema de la Terra, Gaia, pogués expressar alguna preferència, seria per la fredor d’una era glacial, no pas per la relativa calor actual.”
206. Mikhail Budyko (1969) – The effect of solar radiation variations on the climate of the Earth – Tellus 21:611-619 doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490.1969.tb00466.x – Main Geophysical Observatory, Leningrad – http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1969.tb00466.x/pdf
     “Taking into account the influence of changes of planetary albedo of the Earth under the development of glaciations on the thermal regime, it is found that comparatively small variations of atmospheric transparency could be sufficient for the development of quaternary glaciations.”
207. Michael Ghil (1976) – Climate stability for a Sellers-type model – Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 33:3-20 doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1976)033<0003:CSFAST>2.0.CO;2 – Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University – http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0469(1976)033%3C0003%3ACSFAST%3E2.0.CO%3B2
     “We investigate the stability under small perturbations of the main model’s climates. A stability criterion is derived, and its application shows that the ‘present climate’ and the ‘deep freeze’ are stable, whereas the model’s glacial is unstable.”
208. Stephen H. Schneider and Starley L. Thompson (2000) – A Simple Climate Model Used in Economic Studies of Global Change – Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University – http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/ASimpleClimateModel.pdf
     “The only difference between these radically different policies is the assumed climate damage associated with a given level of smoothly varying climate change. While the use of a probability distribution of damage functions clearly expands the range of optimal policies the model ‘recommends,’ to date none of the many studies using DICE with alternative formulations or parameters1 has used a climate model that produces rapid non-linear events.”
209. Michael D. Mastrandrea and Stephen H. Schneider (2001) – Integrated assessment of abrupt climatic changes – Climate Policy 1:433-449 doi:10.3763/cpol.2001.0146 – Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences, Stanford University; Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University – http://web.stanford.edu/~mikemas/publications/IntegratedAssessment.pdf
     “The DICE model makes no attempt to incorporate certain non-linear behaviors found in more complex general circulation models (GCMs) [refs] or observed in nature [refs] … – no discontinuities in the slope of the time-evolving changes – given a smooth CO2 increase scenario. However, when forced by certain smooth emissions scenarios, GCMs can display abrupt non-linear responses.”
210. Bernard Etkin (2010) – A state space view of the ice ages – a new look at familiar data – Climatic Change 100:403-406 doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9821-x – Professor Emeritus, Institute for Aerospace Studies, University of Toronto
     “Since the oceans have a heat capacity several thousand times that of the atmosphere, it is reasonable to expect that they will dominate the heat-absorption process for a long time, and will continue to cool the atmosphere until those two parts of the system approach thermal equilibrium. Sooner or later, as heat transfers work their way through the system, more of the solar heat will reappear in the atmosphere and the slope of the graph can be expected to increase rapidly as that time is approached. ”
211. K. Misra and Maitri Verma (2013) – A mathematical model to study the dynamics of carbon dioxide gas in the atmosphere – Applied Mathematics and Computation 219:8595–8609 doi:10.1016/j.amc.2013.02.058 – Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Banaras Hindu University
     “The proposed model has four equilibria, and conditions for the existence of these equilibria have been obtained … The stability and direction of these bifurcating periodic solutions are analyzed by using center manifold theory. Numerical simulation is performed to support theoretical results.”
212. Jørgen Randers (2012) – 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years – Chelsea Green Publishing – Professor of Climate Strategy, BI Norwegian Business School; Sustainability Council, The Dow Chemical Company – ISBN-13: 978-1603584210 – 416 Págs. – http://www.2052.info/
     “I basically believe that we will see the same rate of technological and societal change over the next forty years as we have seen over the last forty years. That is because the drivers will be the same and the organization of global society is unlikely to change discontinuously.” (p. 61)
213. S. Holling (1973) – Resilience and stability of ecological systems – Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 4:1-23 – Institute of Resource Ecology. University of British Columbia – http://www.uni-kassel.de/beckenbach/files/pdfs/lehre/advanced_economics/WS11_12/Texte/Holling_ResilStabilEcolSys.pdf
     “An equilibrium centered view is essentially static and provides little insight into the transient behavior of systems that are not near the equilibrium. Natural, undisturbed systems are likely to be continually in a transient state; they will be equally so under the influence of man. As man’s numbers and economic demands increase, his use of resources shifts equilibrium states and moves populations away from equilibria.”
214. Eli Rabett – L’Affaire Bengtsson – Rabett Run, 16/05/2014 – http://rabett.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/laffaire-bengtsson.html
     “A typical example is the following comment that he made on January 23 of this year: It’s a shame that the GDR disappeared otherwise would have been able to offer one-way tickets there for these socialists. Now there’s unfortunately not many orthodox countries left soon and I surely do not imagine our romantic green Communists want a one-way ticket to North Korea.”
215. Brendan Montague (2014) – The Day Thatcher Met Hayek – and How this Led to Privatisation – Desmogblog, 28/09/2014 – http://www.desmog.uk/2014/09/29/day-thatcher-met-hayek-and-how-led-privatisation
     “Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher meets free market economist Friedrich von Hayek at IEA. She appoints Lord Lawson and they direct privatisation of British energy interests.”
216. Lennart Bengtsson – My view on climate research – Uppsala Initiativet, 21/05/2014 – Environmental Systems Science Centr, University of Reading – http://uppsalainitiativet.blogspot.com.es/2014/05/guest-post-by-lennart-bengtsson-my-view.html
     “Climate is nothing but the sum of all weather events during some representative period of time.”
217. Ray Bates (2010) – Climate stability and sensitivity in some simple conceptual models – Climate Dynamics 38:455-473 doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0966-0 – School of Mathematical Sciences + Meteorology and Climate Centre, University College Dublin – http://www.ima.org.uk/_db/_documents/Bates.pdf
     “Some unexpected outcomes are found in this case. These include the possibility of a negative global-mean temperature response to a positive global-mean forcing, and vice versa.”
218. Previdi et al (2013) – Climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene – Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 139:1121–1131 doi:10.1002/qj.2165 – Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University – http://www.nwra.com/resumes/liepert/liepert/Home_files/Previdi_et_al_2013_QJRMS.pdf – 12 autores
     “The Earth system climate sensitivity is difficult to quantify due to the lack of palaeo-analogues for the present-day anthropogenic forcing, and the fact that ice sheet and climate–GHG feedbacks have yet to become globally significant in the Anthropocene. Furthermore, current models are unable to adequately simulate the physics of ice sheet decay and certain aspects of the natural carbon and nitrogen cycles. Obtaining quantitative estimates of the Earth system sensitivity is therefore a high priority for future work.”
219. R. Bates (2007) – Some considerations of the concept of climate feedback – Quarterly Journal of The Royal Meteorological Society 133:545-560 doi:10.1002/qj.62 – School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Dublin – http://www.gfy.ku.dk/~kaas/forc&feedb2008/Articles/JR%20Bates.pdf
     “The main purpose of the present paper is to show that stability-altering feedback and sensitivity-altering feedback as used in climate are two separate concepts, and that neither of them coincides with the concept of feedback as defined in control theory or in electronics. The signs of stability-altering and sensitivity-altering feedback coincide for the simple case of a zero-dimensional climate model, but not necessarily if the model is extended to include two zones with dynamical interaction between them.”
220. Michael Ghil (2013) – A Mathematical Theory of Climate Sensitivity or, How to Deal With Both Anthropogenic Forcing and Natural Variability? – World Scientific Review, 29/01/2013 – Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris + University of California, Los Angeles – http://web.atmos.ucla.edu/tcd/PREPRINTS/Ghil-A_Met_Soc_refs-rev’d_vf-black_only.pdf
     “There are two basic approaches to apprehend the complexity of climate change: deterministically nonlinear and stochastically linear, i.e. the Lorenz and the Hasselmann approach. The grand unification of these two approaches relies on the theory of random dynamical systems. We apply this theory to study the random attractors of nonlinear, stochastically perturbed climate models. Doing so allows one to examine the interaction of internal climate variability with the forcing, whether natural or anthropogenic, and to take into account the climate system’s non-equilibrium behavior in determining climate sensitivity.”
221. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud (2009) – Economics needs a scientific revolution – Nature 455:1181 doi:10.1038/4551181a – Head of research of Capital Fund Management and a physics professor at École Polytechnique in France – http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue48/Bouchaud48.pdf
     “The supposed omniscience and perfect efficacy of a free market stems from economic work done in the 1950s and 1960s, which with hindsight looks more like propaganda against communism than plausible science.”
222. Stephen E. Schwartz (2010) – Feedback and sensitivity in an electrical circuit: an analog for climate models – Climatic Change doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9903-9 – Atmospheric Sciences Division, Brookhaven National Laboratory
     “Here a simple and readily understood electrical resistance circuit is examined in terms of feedback theory to introduce and define the terminology that is used to quantify feedbacks. This formalism is applied to the feedbacks in an energy-balance model of Earth’s climate and used to interpret the magnitude of feedback in the climate system that corresponds to present estimates of Earth’s climate sensitivity.”
223. E. Schwartz (2011) – Comment on “Climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene” – Earth System Dynamics Discussion 3:143–147 doi:10.5194/esdd-3-143-2012 – Brookhaven National Laboratory – http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/3/143/2012/esdd-3-143-2012-print.pdf
     “Attention is called to several inconsistencies and errors in the definition and interpretation of quantities relating to climate sensitivity and feedbacks in the discussions paper “Climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene” by Previdi et al. (2011).”
224. N. Livina et al (2011) – Changing climate states and stability: from Pliocene to present – Climate Dynamics doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0980-2 – School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia – 5 autores
     “It has been suggested (Benzi et al. 1983; Hasselmann 1999; Kravtsov et al. 2005) that a stochastic equation with double-well potential is an appropriate minimal model for characterizing the Earth’s climate under certain boundary conditions. This encapsulates the proposition that the climate system can ‘‘oscillate’’ between two stable states defined by the potential wells (possibly of different levels). It may be particularly appropriate for the D-O events during the last ice age (Ganopolski and Rahmstorf 2002).”
225. R. Raupach (2013) – The exponential eigenmodes of the carbon-climate system, and their implications for ratios of responses to forcings – Earth System Dynamics 4:31-49 doi:10.5194/esd-4-31-2013 – CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research – http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/4/31/2013/esd-4-31-2013.pdf
     “Several basic ratios of responses to forcings in the carbon-climate system are observed to be relatively steady. Examples include the CO2 airborne fraction (the fraction of the total anthropogenic CO2 emission flux that accumulates in the atmosphere) and the ratio T/QE of warming (T) to cumulative total CO2 emissions (QE). This paper explores the reason for such near-constancy in the past, and its likely limitations in future … This theory establishes a basis for the widely assumed proportionality between T and QE, and identifies the limits of this relationship.”
226. Peter C. Young and H. Garnier (2006) – Identification and estimation of continuous-time, data-based mechanistic (DBM) models for environmental systems – Environmental Modelling & Software 21:1055-1072 doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2005.05.007 – Centre for Research on Environmental Systems and Statistics, Institute of Environmental and Natural Sciences, Lancaster Univeversity; Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Australian National University + Centre de Recherche en Automatique de Nancy (CRAN – UMR 7039 CNRS-UHP-INPL), Université Henri Poincaré
     “Finally, the paper describes how this SDP approach has been used to identify, estimate and control a nonlinear differential equation model of global carbon cycle dynamics and global warming.”
227. Alexey V. Eliseev and Igor I. Mokhov (2008) – Eventual Saturation of the Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedback Studied with a Conceptual Model – Ecological Modelling 213:127–132 doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.11.015 – A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS, Moscow
     “It is argued that an eventual saturation of the climate–carbon cycle feedback is expected to occur also in the other integrations of sufficient length with coupled climate–carbon cycle models.”
228. Daniel A. Lashof (1988) – The dynamic greenhouse: Feedback processes that may influence future concentrations of atmospheric trace gases and climatic change – Climatic Change 14:213-242 doi:10.1007/BF00134964 – U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
     “The potentially most significant biogeochemical feedbacks are probably release of methane hydrates, changes in ocean chemistry, biology, and circulation, and changes in the albedo of the global vegetation. While each of these feedbacks is modest compared to the water vapor feedback, the biogeochemical feedbacks in combination have the potential to substantially increase the climate change associated with any given initial forcing.”
229. Damon Matthews et al (2007) – What determines the magnitude of carbon cycle-climate feedbacks – Global Biogeochemical Cycles 21 GB2012 doi:10.1029/2006GB002733 – Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia University – http://www.mcgill.ca/files/gec3/Matthewsetal2007_GBC.pdf – 5 autores
     “Positive feedbacks between climate change and the carbon cycle have the potential to amplify the growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide and accelerate future climate warming … In all simulations, large feedbacks are associated with a climatic suppression of terrestrial primary productivity and consequent reduction of terrestrial carbon uptake. This process is particularly evident in the tropics and can explain a large part of the range of carbon cycle-climate feedbacks simulated by different coupled climate-carbon models.”
230. Wieczorek et al (2011) – Excitability in ramped systems: the compost-bomb instability – Proceedings of the Royal Society A 467:1243-1269 doi:10.1098/rspa.2010.0485 – Mathematics Research Institute, University of Exeter – http://rspa.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/early/2011/05/05/rspa.2011.0222.full.pdf+html – 4 autores
     “Results in figure 7b suggest that about 20 years of global warming at a constant rate vc ≈0.09 (◦Cyr−1) may already cause spontaneous combustion of peatlands … as the rate of global warming is increased to v =0.09 (◦Cyr−1) >vc (figure 8b), the folded singularity F and the excitability threshold shift their position such that the same initial condition is now above the excitability threshold. As a result, the ramped system reaches the fold of the slow manifold and exhibits an explosive increase in the soil temperature, T, associated with a catastrophic release of soil carbon into the atmosphere.”
231. Alessio Alexiadis (2007) – Global warming and human activity: A model for studying the potential instability of the carbon dioxide/temperature feedback mechanism – Ecological Modelling 203:243-256 doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.11.020 – UCY-CompSci, European Marie Curie Transfer of Knowledge Center (TOK-DEV) for the Computational Sciences, Department of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering , University of Cyprus
     “This means that there is a 14% chance that the pole is already in the unstable region and that the temperatures and the concentrations that we experience today are just the initial transient of the typical run-away behavior of an unstable system.”
232. Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático – Rio de Janeiro, 1992 – http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/convsp.pdf
     “Lograr la estabilización de las concentraciones de gases de efecto invernadero en la atmósfera a un nivel que impida interferencias antropogénicas peligrosas en el sistema climático; ese nivel debería lograrse en un plazo suficiente para permitir que los ecosistemas se adapten naturalmente al cambio climático, asegurar que la producción de alimentos no se vea amenazada y permitir que el desarrollo económico prosiga de manera sostenible”
233. Martin Parry et al (2001) – Millions at risk: defining critical climate change threats and targets – Global Environmental Change 11:181–183 – School of Environmental Sciences, Jackson Environment Institute, University of East Anglia – http://www.greenpeace.org/raw/content/international/press/reports/millions-at-risk.pdf – 10 autores
     “Now we may argue, for example, that in order to keep damages below an agreed tolerable level (for example, a given number of additional people at risk) global temperature increases would need to be kept below a given amount; and emissions targets could then be developed to achieve that objective. Fourthly, it is clear that mitigation alone will not solve the problem of climate change.”
234. R. Bates (2007) – Some considerations of the concept of climate feedback – Quarterly Journal of The Royal Meteorological Society 133:545-560 doi:10.1002/qj.62 – School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Dublin – http://www.gfy.ku.dk/~kaas/forc&feedb2008/Articles/JR%20Bates.pdf
     “Neither of them corresponds to the concept of feedback used in control theory, though each of them describes a specific aspect of a system’s behaviour that is of interest in control theory.”
235. C Boerlijst et al (2013) – Catastrophic Collapse Can Occur without Early Warning: Examples of Silent Catastrophes in Structured Ecological Models – PLoS ONE 8:e62033 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0062033 – Theoretical Ecology, Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam – http://www.plosone.org/article/fetchObject.action?uri=info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0062033&representation=PDF – 3 autores
     “Our results demonstrate that claims on the universality of early warning signals are not correct, and that catastrophic collapses can occur without prior warning. In order to correctly predict a collapse and determine whether early warning signals precede the collapse, detailed knowledge of the mathematical structure of the approaching bifurcation is necessary. Unfortunately, such knowledge is often only obtained after the collapse has already occurred.”
236. Peter Ditlevsen (2010) – Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking – Geophysical Research Letters 37 L19703 doi:10.1029/2010GL044486 – University of Copenhagen, Niels Bohr Institute, Centre for Ice and Climate – http://www.gfy.ku.dk/~pditlev/papers/2010GL044486.pdf
     “The early warning of climate changes or structural change in any dynamical system driven through a bifurcation, can only be obtained if increase in both variance and autocorrelation is observed. Conclusions drawn based solely on one of the signals and not the other are invalid. Furthermore, detecting increased autocorrelation, or critical slow down, with statistical significance is difficult.”
237. Tim O’Riordan and Tim Lenton (2011) – Tackling tipping points – British Academy Review 18:21-27 – Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia + Fellow of the British Academy; Chair in Climate Change/Earth SystemsScience at the University of Exeter
     “Crucially, the zone of declining resilience that takes place before a tipping point occurs produces identifiable early warning signals … However, not every type of abrupt transition carries early warning signals. We need to be aware that the Earth system can sometimes bite without growling beforehand.”
238. Chris A. Boulton, Lesley C. Allison and Timothy M. Lenton (2014) – Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model – Nature Communications 5:5752 doi:10.1038/ncomms6752 – Earth System Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter – http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/141208/ncomms6752/pdf/ncomms6752.pdf
     “They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached.”
239. Carlos de Castro Carranza – Mitos culturales y colapso de nuestra Civilización – Grupo de Energía y Dinámica de Sistemas – http://www.eis.uva.es/energiasostenible/?p=2310
     “Aunque la mayoría humana sentada en un diván o arrodillada en un confesionario reconocería que Au y Falo son dañinos, esto no es así para el dios Tecnos. Vivimos en el apogeo de su poder … Aunque no hemos vencido ninguno de los mitos culturales (oro y machismo) hemos encumbrado el mito del progreso tecnológico a lo más alto.”
240. Lewis Mumford (1967) – El mito de la máquina – Pepitas de calabaza – ISBN-13: 978-8493767129 – 556 Págs. –
     “Leonardo da Vinci: ¿Qué método de guerra hay que pueda infligir mayor daño al enemigo que el poder de privarle de sus cosechas? ¿Qué combate naval puede compararse con aquél que libraría quien tuviese el dominio de los vientos y pudiera causar ruinosas tempestades que hundirían hasta a la flota más poderosa? En verdad, quien dominase tan irresistibles fuerzas se convertiría en el señor de todas las naciones y no habrá capacidad humana que pueda oponerse a tan destructivo poder.” (p. 477)
241. Clive Hamilton (2013) – Earthmasters: The Dawn of the Age of Climate Engineering – Yale University Press – Professor of Public Ethics, Charles Sturt University – ISBN-13: 978-0300186673 – 264 Págs.
     “Allenby is certain that engineering an artificial world can be carried by the free market … Allenby has joined the small but influential group of ‘luke-warmists’, those who cannot be accused of denying climate science but consistently emphasize the uncertainties, downplay the risks and defend the prevailing order against policies that seem to threaten it.” (p. 111,112)
242. Bob Dreyfuss – Hawks, UAE Ambassador Want War with Iran – The Nation, 09/07/2010 – http://www.thenation.com/blog/37220/hawks-uae-ambassador-want-war-iran#
     “The Bipartisan Policy Center, a collection of neoconservatives, hawks, and neoliberal interventionists is calling once again for war preparations against Iran, in its June 23 report, ‘Meeting the Challenge: When Time Runs Out.’”
243. John Vidal – Big names behind US push for geoengineering – The Guardian, 06/10/2011 – http://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2011/oct/06/us-push-geoengineering
     “So what is the [Bipartisan Policy Center] and should we take this non-profit group seriously? For a start these guys – and they are indeed mostly men – are not bipartisan in any sense that the British would understand. The operation is part-funded by big oil, pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, and while it claims to “represent a consensus among what have historically been divergent views,” it appears to actually represent the most powerful US academic, military, scientific and corporate interests. It lobbies for free trade, US military supremacy and corporate power.”
244. Eric Bickel & Lee Lane (2010) – An Analysis of Climate Engineering as a Response to Climate Change – Copenhagen Consensus Center – The Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy, The University of Texas at Austin; American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research – http://faculty.engr.utexas.edu/bickel/Papers/AP_Climate%20Engineering_Bickel_Lane_v%205%200.pdf
     “We estimate that the benefit of a single watt per square meter of SRM results in almost a 35% decrease in climate damages and abatement costs (over $6 trillion) under an emissions control regime of optimal abatement. Furthermore, when considering only the impact on temperature, we show that a single watt per square meter of SRM has the same economic benefit as capturing and sequestering almost 65% of yearly CO2 emissions, which, in conjunction with AC’s significant costs, argues in favor of SRM in the near term. In addition to quantitative benefit and cost estimates, we stress the potential importance of transaction costs and “political market failures.” Some of these costs could be significant, but may be less so than with other strategies for coping with climate change. ”
245. Col Tamzy J. House et al (1996) – Weather as a force multiplier: Owning the weather in 2025 – A Research Paper Presented To Air Force 2025 – http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/documents/vol3ch15.pdf
     “Technology advancements in five major areas are necessary for an integrated weather-modification capability: (1) advanced nonlinear modeling techniques, (2) computational capability, (3) information gathering and transmission, (4) a global sensor array, and (5) weather intervention techniques. Some intervention tools exist today and others may be developed and refined in the future.”
246. Eli Kintisch (2009) – DARPA to explore geoengineering – Science Insider, 14/03/2009 – http://news.sciencemag.org/2009/03/darpa-explore-geoengineering
     “But other scientists worry that military support for the work could create the public impression that the work was meant to harm. “The last thing we need is to have DARPA developing climate-intervention technology,” says Caldeira. He says he agreed to go to the meeting “to try to get DARPA not to develop geoengineering techniques. Geoengineering is already so fraught with social, geopolitical, economic, and ethical issues; why would we want to add military dimensions?” He adds, however, that he would support DARPA studying the topic in case an adversary were to use it.”
247. Clive Hamilton (2013) – Earthmasters: The Dawn of the Age of Climate Engineering – Yale University Press – Professor of Public Ethics, Charles Sturt University – ISBN-13: 978-0300186673 – 264 Págs.
     “More interesting was the explicit attempts to locate decision-making over geoengineering in the White House.” [p. 131)
248. Clive Hamilton (2013) – Earthmasters: The Dawn of the Age of Climate Engineering – Yale University Press – Professor of Public Ethics, Charles Sturt University – ISBN-13: 978-0300186673 – 264 Págs. –
     “What is disturbing is that Lane and Bickel count the ability to by-pass democracy as one of the benefits of solar radiation management as a response to climate change.” (p. 119-120)
249. Ross Hoffman (2002) – Controlling the global weather – Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83:241–248 doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083<0241:CTGW>2.3.CO;2 – Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. – http://agriculturedefensecoalition.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/5G_2002_Weather_Hoffman_February_2002_Controlling_the_Global_Weather_Jets.pdf
     “Just imagine: no droughts, no tornadoes, no snowstorms during rush hour, etc. We probably cannot eliminate hurricanes, but we might be able to control the paths of hurricanes, and essentially prevent hurricanes from striking population centers. Our goal is not to change the climate, but to control the precise timing and paths of weather systems.”
250. Alan Robock (2009) – A biased economic analysis of geoengineering – Real Climate, 11/08/2009 – Rutgers University – http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/08/a-biased-economic-analysis-of-geoengineering/comment-page-7/
     “But Bickel and Lane ignore the effects of ocean acidification from continued CO2 emissions, dismissing this as a lost cause. Even without global warming, reducing CO2 emissions is needed to do the best we can to save the ocean.”
251. Naomi Klein (2014) – This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The Climate – Penguin Random House – ISBN 978-0-307-40199-1 – 566 Págs. – https://pdf.yt/d/Skb-ch_k7psDm90Q
     “Bill Gates has a similar firewall between mouthand money. Though he professes great concern about climate change, the Gates Foundation had at least $1,2 billion invested in two oil giants, BP and ExxonMobil, as of December 2013, and those are only the beginning of his fossil fuel holdings [ref].” (p. 236) – Ver también http://vimeo.com/112980156
252. Alexander Laszlo and Stanley Krippner (1998) – Systems Theories: Their Origins, Foundations, and Development – En: J.S. Jordan (Ed.), Systems Theories and A Priori Aspects of Perception. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, 1998. Cap 3:47-74 – http://archive.syntonyquest.org/elcTree/resourcesPDFs/SystemsTheory.pdf
     “Complete control is viewed as an illusion in real-world systems interventions. This sub-branch of critical systems thinking swings the pendulum back toward ontological considerations. ”
253. Oliver Morton (2007) – Climate Change: Is this what it takes to save the world? – Nature 447:132-136 doi:10.1038/447132a – Nature’s chief news and features editor
     “Although models agree that the world will warm and climatic patterns will change as carbon dioxide rises, they don’t agree on the amount of warming or the patterns of change. Indeed, that uncertainty is one of the reasons that climate change is such a difficult issue. “How can you engineer a system whose behaviour you don’t understand?” asks Ronald Prinn, a climate scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge. One answer to this question is “as carefully and reversibly as you can”. Caldeira and MacCracken have now joined Wood and Benford to investigate a radiation-management proposal aimed at the Arctic.”
254. Clive Hamilton (2013) – Earthmasters: The Dawn of the Age of Climate Engineering – Yale University Press – Professor of Public Ethics, Charles Sturt University – ISBN-13: 978-0300186673 – 264 Págs.
     “Instead climate change jeopardizing the system in which they identify, geoengineering would represent the triumph of ‘man over nature’.” (p. 91)
255. David W. Keith (2000) – Geoengineering the Climate: History and Prospect – Annual Review of Energy and Environment 25:245-84 doi:10.1146/annurev.energy.25.1.245 – Department of Enginering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University – http://keith.seas.harvard.edu/papers/26.Keith.2000.GeoengineeringHistoryandProspect.e.pdf
     “Assessment of geoengineering is reviewed under various framings including economics, risk, politics, and environmental ethics. Finally, arguments are presented for the importance of explicit debate about the implications of countervailing measures such as geoengineering.”
256. Alessio Alexiadis, comunicación personal
257. Alexander Laszlo and Stanley Krippner (1998) – Systems Theories: Their Origins, Foundations, and Development – En: J.S. Jordan (Ed.), Systems Theories and A Priori Aspects of Perception. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, 1998. Cap 3:47-74 – http://archive.syntonyquest.org/elcTree/resourcesPDFs/SystemsTheory.pdf
     “The transdisciplinary endeavor of the systems approach was not restricted to the hard sciences but began to spread to the humanities as well. A 1953 letter from economist Boulding addressed to von Bertalanffy summarizes the situation. ”
258. Georgi M. Dimirovski et al (2006) – Control system approaches for sustainable development and instability management in the globalization age – Annual Reviews in Control 30:103-115 doi:10.1016/j.arcontrol.2006.01.004 – Member of the Technical Board and Chair of CC-9 on Social Systems of IFAC + Professor of Automation and Systems Engineering, SS Cyril and Methodius University, Skopje + Professor of Computer Science and Information Technologies, Dogus University, Istanbul – 6 autores
     “3. Modelling and control in social systems: … The main consequence is that human centred systems are rather complex systems with a diversity of dynamic phenomena. Secondly, it should be noted that the world is about systemic structures that are inherently non-causal systems. Furthermore, these are only partially identifiable (Mansour, 2001), only partially observable and are likely to be only partially controllable (Dimirovski, 2001b).”
259. Mohammed Mansour (2002) – Systems theory and human science – Annual Reviews in Control 26:1–13 doi:10.1016/S1367-5788(02)80004-9 – Department of Automatic Control, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology – ftp://164.41.49.96/Usuarios/Luis/BACKUP/UNB/Aulas%20do%20Ishihara/Aulas_Controle/Aula%20Controle%20Dinamico04/Rascunhos/IntroducaoControleADL/SystemasHumanos.pdf
     “In this paper, the relevance of system theory for modeling and investigating problem in human science and human centered systems as well as the mutual relationship between systems theory and human science are explored. It is not a completed research but rather ideas and thoughts which need further investigations.”
260. Talcott Parsons (1951) – The Social System – Quid Pro, LLC – ISBN-13: 978-1610271394 – 446 Págs. – http://home.ku.edu.tr/~mbaker/CSHS503/TalcottParsonsSocialSystem.pdf
     “Bryan S.Turner (1991): One problem with the criticism of Parsons in the 1960s was that it typically focused on a narrow range of Parsons’ own work, specifically The Social System. .. As a result of these contemporary evaluations of Parsons’ complete contribution to sociology, many of the conventional objections to Parsons no longer appear so compelling or convincing. It is also important to point out (as a moral evaluation of Parsons as a person) that Parsons attempted to reply systematically to his critics.”
261. Talcott Parsons (1937) – The Structure of Social Action – Free Press; 2 edition – ISBN-13: 978-0029242407 – 470 Págs.
     “It is in this sense of the borderline field between science on the one hand, logic and epistemology on the other, that the term “methodology” as used in this work should be understood Its reference is thus not primarily to “methods” of empirical research such as statistics, case study, interview and the like. These latter it is preferable to call research techniques.”
262. Talcott Parsons (1983) – The Structure and Change of the Social System – Edited by Washio Kurata; lectures from Parsons’ second visit to Japan
263. Niklas Luhmann (2006) – System as Difference – Organization 13:37–57 doi:10.1177/1350508406059638 – http://steffenroth.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/systems-as-difference.pdf
     “Already Parsons had spoken of ‘boundary maintenance’ and thus changed the definition of a system … Already here, the reproach of conservatism that is often levelled against systems theory and aims at the structural level had become meaningless.”
264. Eguzki Urteaga (2010) – La teoría de sistemas de Niklas Luhmann – Contrastes. Revista Internacional de Filosofía XV:301-317 – Departamento de Sociología, Universidad del País Vasco – http://www.uma.es/contrastes/pdfs/015/ContrastesXV-16.pdf
     “Sociólogo alemán profundamente original y difícilmente clasificable, Niklas Luhmann (1927- 1998) ha elaborado una teoría ambiciosa y coherente en la que describe la sociedad moderna como un sistema … Niklas Luhmman ha construido una de las obras más fecundas y singulares del siglo XX. De manera más precisa, el objetivo de este artículo es analizar su teoría de los sistemas.”
265. Niklas Luhmann (1996) – Introducción a la teoría de sistemas – Universidad Iberoamericana; Barcelona : Anthropos
266. Anthony Giddens (1984) – The Constitution of Society: Outline of the theory of structuration – University of California Press; New Ed edition – ISBN: 0-520-05728-7 – 417 Págs.
267. John D. Sterman (1994) – Learning in and about complex systems – System Dynamics Reviews 10:291-330 doi:10.1002/sdr.4260100214 – Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
     “To be successful, methods to enhance learning about complex systems must address all these impediments. Effective methods for learning in and about complex dynamic systems must include (1) tools to elicit participant knowledge, articulate and reframe perceptions, and create maps of the feedback structure of a problem from those perceptions; (2) simulation tools and management flight simulators to assess the dynamics of those maps and test new policies; and (3) methods to improve scientific reasoning skills, strengthen group process, and overcome defensive routines for individuals and teams.”
268. David C. Lane (1999) – Social theory and system dynamics practice – European Journal of Operational Research 113:501–527 doi:10.1016/S0377-2217(98)00192-1 – Operational Research Department, London School of Economics and Political Science
     “Three competing conclusions are then offered: … Forrester’s ideas operate at the level of method not social theory so SD, though not wedded to a particular social theoretic paradigm, can be re-crafted for use within different paradigms. 3. SD is consistent with social theories which dissolve the individual/society divide by taking a dialectical, or feedback, stance. It can therefore bring a formal modelling approach to the `agency/structure’ debate within social theory and so bring SD into the heart of social science.”
269. Investigación operativa
270. Edward G. Anderson Jr. (2011) – A dynamic model of counterinsurgency policy including the effects of intelligence, public security, popular support, and insurgent experience – System Dynamics Review 27:111–141 doi:10.1002/sdr.443 – University of Texas, McCombs School of Business, IROM Department
     “A system dynamics model of insurgencies is built using the U.S. Army and Marine Counterinsurgency Manual (FM 3-24) as a basis … One finding, which supports conventional wisdom, is that the timing of withdrawal of counterinsurgency forces is critical. In particular, if the withdrawal is too early, the insurgency may end up being worse than if no counterinsurgency forces had ever been deployed. A second result is support for the contention that counterinsurgency policies are synergistic, which implies that policies are most effective if deployed together.”
271. Jeffrey Mervis (2014) – An Internet research project draws conservative ire – Science 346:686-687 doi:10.1126/science.346.6210.686 –
     “Menczer’s work, which is also supported by the military’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and by the private James S. McDonnell Foundation, is rooted in the growing field of complex, nonlinear feedback systems.“
272. Immanuel Wallerstein (1974) – The Modern World System I: Capitalist Agriculture and the Origins of the European World-Economy in the Sixteenth Century – Academic Press, New York – Universidad de Binghamton (SUNY)
     “A world-system is a social system, one that has boundaries, structures, member groups, rules of legitimation, and coherence. Its life is made up of the conflicting forces which hold it together by tension and tear it apart as each group seeks eternally to remold it to its advantage. It has the characteristics of an organism, in that it has a life-span over which its characteristics change in some respects and remain stable in others. One can define its structures as being at different times strong or weak in terms of the internal logic of its functioning. What characterizes a social system in my view is the fact that life within it is largely self-contained, and that the dynamics of its development are largely internal. ”
273. Immanuel Wallerstein (2011) – Structural Crisis in the World-System: Where Do We Go from Here? – Monthly Review 62, 01/03/2011 – Senior Research Scholar at Yale University – http://monthlyreview.org/2011/03/01/structural-crisis-in-the-world-system
     “This cyclical process is often called Kondratieff long waves, and has in the past tended to last an average of fifty to sixty years for the entire cycle.3 Such cycles have been occurring over the past five hundred years. One systemic consequence is a constant slow shift in the location of the zones that are most favored economically, without, however, changing the proportion of zones that are so favored.”
274. Richard Heinberg (2014) – Want to Change the World? Read This First – Resilience, 16/06/2014 – Post Carbon Institute – http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-06-16/want-to-change-the-world-read-this-first
     “Perhaps the most important key to grasping the relationship between the environment and processes of societal change was articulated by American anthropologist Marvin Harris (1927-2001). Marvin Harris’s magnum opus was the rather difficult book Cultural Materialism: The Struggle for a Science of Culture (1979) … The book is full of technical jargon, and its author argues each point meticulously, presenting a surfeit of evidence. However, the kernel of Harris’s theoretical contribution can be summarized rather briefly.”
275. Marvin Harris (1979) – Cultural Materialism: The Struggle for a Science of Culture (Updated edition) – AltaMira Press – ISBN-13: 978-0759101357 – 408 Págs.

[No confundir con materialismo marxista. Nada que ver]

276. Kees Van der Pijl (2014) – The Discipline of Western Supremacy: Modes of Foreign Relations and Political Economy – London and New York, Pluto Press – Professor of International Relations, University of Sussex – ISBN-13: 978-0745323183 – 272 Págs.
277. Kees Van der Pijl (1998) – Transnational Classes and International Relations – Routledge – Professor of International Relations, University of Sussex
     “The idea of The Discipline of Western Supremacy, then, is to show for each era how intellectual architects attempted to build a foundation for foreign relations between the “Lockean heartland” and the rest of the world. Their end product, for van der Pijl, suffers from the “sectarianism and formulaic retrogression” (ix) one can read in the rest of the social sciences: having turned their back upon Marx and Marxism, the mainstream (read nonmarxist) social sciences bifurcated into a “realism” that justifies the imperialist project and an “idealism” that dares not stray far from Lockean thinking.“
278. Georgi M. Dimirovski et al (2006) – Control system approaches for sustainable development and instability management in the globalization age – Annual Reviews in Control 30:103-115 doi:10.1016/j.arcontrol.2006.01.004 – Member of the Technical Board and Chair of CC-9 on Social Systems of IFAC + Professor of Automation and Systems Engineering, SS Cyril and Methodius University, Skopje + Professor of Computer Science and Information Technologies, Dogus University, Istanbul – 6 autores
     “As pointed out by Mansour (2002), following the famous humanist, mathematician and philosopher Bertrand Russell, a fundamental concept in social science and philosophy as well as in human societies is power with its many forms (Russell, 1975): civil authority, military, propaganda, secret service, clergy, and – above all – wealth. This fact and the need for competition in human societies (Axelrod, 1997; Eeckhout, 2000) as well as other factors of western social philosophies, largely adopted world-wide, have been inducing potential for conflict.”
279. Steve Keen (2001) – Debunking Economics, The Naked Emperor of the Social Sciences – Pluto Press – University of Western Sydney – ISBN-13: 978-1856499927 – 352 Págs.
     “There are many models in economics which have properties akin to those of Lorenz’s weather model – very few of which have been developed by orthodox economists. Most were instead developed by economists who belong to alternative schools, in particular complexity theorists and evolutionary economists. One of the best-known such models, Goodwin’s model of cyclical growth, puts in mathematical form a model first suggested by Marx.”
280. Nicolai D. Kondratiev (1979) – The Long Waves in Economic Life – Review (Fernand Braudel Center) 2:519-562
281. Mauricio Schoijet (1999) – Limits to Growth and the Rise of Catastrophism – Environmental History 4:515-530 doi:10.2307/3985399 Departamento El Hombre y su Ambiente, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana de Xochimilco
     “[Harich] approves the position of Kautsky (1854-1938), who claimed that there was a need for a synthesis between Marxism and ‘the partial truths of Malthusianism,”, a position which Frederick Engels could have accepted in a letter to Kautsky of 1881.”
282. Peter Turchin (2005) – Dynamical feedbacks between population growth and sociopolitical instability in agrarian states – Structure and Dynamics: eJournal of Anthropological and Related Sciences – Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut – http://escholarship.org/uc/item/0d17g8g9.pdf
     “Most preindustrial states experienced recurrent waves of political collapse and internal warfare. One possible explanation of this pattern, the demographic-structural theory, suggests that population growth leads to state instability and breakdown, which in turn causes population decline. Mathematical models incorporating this mechanism predict sustained oscillations in demographic and political dynamics … Results suggest that population and instability are dynamically interrelated as predicted by the theory.”
283. Jared Diamond (2005) – Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Survive – Viking Penguin – ISBN-13: 978-0-140-27951-1 – 576 Págs.
     “The process through which past societies have undermined themselves by damaging their environments fall into eight categories, whose relative importance differs from case to case: deforestation and habitat destruction; soil problems (erosion, salinization and soil fertility loses); water management problems; over-hunting; over-fishing; effects of introduced effects on native species; human population growth and increased per capita impact on people. Those past collapses tended to follow somewhat similar courses … The environmental problems facing us today include the same eight that undermined past societies, plus four new ones: human-caused climate change; build-up of toxic chemicals in the environment; energy shortages; and full human utilization of the Earth’s photosynthetic capacity.”
284. Peter Turchin and Sergey A. Nefedov (2009) – Secular Cycles – Princeton University Press – Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology + Adjunct Professor of Mathematics, University of Conneticut; Institute of History and Archaeology, Russian Academy of Sciences – ISBN-13: 978-0691136967 – 362 Págs. http://press.princeton.edu/chapters/s8904.pdf
     “What we need is a synthetic theory that encompasses both demographic mechanisms (with the associated economic consequences) and power relations (surplus extraction mechanisms). In the dynamical systems framework, it does not make sense to speak of one or the other as ‘the primary factor.’ The two factors interact dynamically, each affecting and being affected by the other.”
285. David Correia (2013) – F**k Jared Diamond – Capitalism Nature Socialism doi:10.1080/10455752.2013.846490 – Editorial – http://www.unm.edu/~dcorreia/David_Correia/Research_files/Correia_F**K_CNS.pdf
     “At worst, it develops an argument about human inequality based on a determinist logic that reduces social relations such as poverty, state violence, and persistent social domination, to inexorable outcomes of geography and environment.”
286. Rakhyun E. Kim an Brendan Mackey (2014) – International environmental law as a complex adaptive system – International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics 14:5-24 doi:10.1007/s10784-013-9225-2 – Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University + Griffith School of Environment, Griffith University; United Nations University Institute of Advanced Studies (UNU-IAS), Yokohama –
     “In this paper, we investigate the proposition that international environmental law (IEL), as a set of treaties and institutions directed at reducing human impacts on the environment, exhibits some key characteristics of a CAS … This emerging governance model is ‘‘ecological’’ and draws heavily from complexity theory [refs]. ”
287. Jukka-Pekka “JP” Onnela – Flow of Control in Networks – Science 343:1325-1326 doi:10.1126/science.1251746 – Department of Biostatistics, Harvard School of Public Health
     “Many complex systems can be viewed as networks, in which nodes represent system elements and edges correspond to interactions between those elements. In such networks, a subset of nodes—the driver nodes—can yield control of the entire network when they are driven by external signals (1–3).”
288. Stefania Vitali et al (2011) – The network of global corporate control – PLoS ONE 6:e25995 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0025995 – Chair of Systems Design, ETH Zurich – http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/1107/1107.5728v2.pdf – 3 autores
     “In contrast, we find that only 737 top holders accumulate 80% of the control over the value of all TNCs … This means that network control is much more unequally distributed than wealth. In particular, the top ranked actors hold a control ten times bigger than what could be expected based on their wealth. The results are robust with respect to the models used to estimate control.”
289. Robert Artigiani (1987) – Revolution and evolution: applying Prigogine’s dissipative structures model – Journal of Social and Biological Structures 10:249-264 – History Department, US Naval Academy, Annapolis.
     “Since the time of Tocqueville, for instance, historians have so emphasized the continuities in societies before and after revolutions that the consequences of revolutionary activities appear trivial. Political scientists, on the other hand, have sought to develop formalized taxonomies of revolutions which are so restrictive that their ‘types’ refer only to specific cases. It appears reasonable, therefore, to turn to other sciences for models to organize and evaluate our knowledge of revolutions.”
290. L. Flood (1990) – Liberating Systems Theory: Toward critical systems theory – Human Relations 43:49-75 doi:10.1177/001872679004300104 – Department of Management Systems and Sciences, Hull University
     “This article contains an exploration of a number of the many interpretations of its title Liberating Systems Theory. It is in fact a point of reflection on the way to realizing Critical Systems Thinking. Particular points of focus are critical theory integrated to practice in systems “problem solving,” and the history and progress of systems thinking, considering critically the relationship of the past with progressively emerging future ends, i.e., emerging Critical Systems Thinking.”
291. Rapoport (1968) – General system theory – The international encyclopedia of social sciences 15:452-458, New York: Macmillan & The Free Press
292. Ricardo Rodriguez-Ulloa and Alberto Paucar-Caceres (2005) – Soft System Dynamics Methodology (SSDM): Combining Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) and System Dynamics (SD) – Systemic Practice and Action Research 18:303-334 doi:10.1007/s11213-005-4816-7 – Andean Institute of Systems (IAS), Lima; Manchester Metropolitan University Business School
     “The basic idea underpinning this approach is that any complex situation can be described in terms of elements and flows; flows being the relationships between the elements. The main focus of the methodology is the structure composed by the interactions of the elements (flows and levels) between them. This description constitutes the dynamic behaviour of the system … Rodríguez-Ulloa [refs] started to unify both approaches into one intellectual tool by taking the valuable aspects of each.”
293. Peter C. Young (2006) – The data-based mechanistic approach to the modelling, forecasting and control of environmental systems – Annual Reviews in Control 30:169-182 doi:10.1016/j.arcontrol.2006.05.002 – Centre for Research on Environmental Systems and Statistics + Institute of Environmental and Natural Sciences, Lancaster Univeversity
     “The paper presents a unified approach to the modelling, forecasting and control of natural and man-made environmental systems … The associated control system design methodology is based on the Non-Minimal State Space (NMSS) approach to the design of Proportional-Integral-Plus (PIP) control systems, based on the DBM models obtained at the previous modelling stage. The paper includes a case study concerned with the modelling and control of globally averaged levels of CO₂ in the atmosphere.”
294. Charles R. Featherston and Matthew Doolan (2012) – A Critical Review of the Criticisms of System Dynamics – The 30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society – Research School of Engineering, College of Engineering and Computer Science, The Australian National University – http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2012/proceed/papers/P1228.pdf
     “Many of the criticisms of system dynamics, such as its determinism and human austerity have been addressed. However, theoretical work still needs to be done on some of the field’s criticisms, including the role of historical data in building confidence in models, the field’s reductionist perspective and how system dynamics addresses plurality and hierarchy. Such work, combined with increased education and communication, would help the field to be accepted more broadly. ”
295. Jay W. Forrester (1998) – Designing the Future – Universidad de Sevilla, 15/12/1998 – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – ftp://yankeegrc.org/documents/sdintro/designjf.pdf
     “People are reluctant to believe physical systems and human systems are of the same kind … the concept of a system contradicts the belief that people are entirely free agents. Instead, people are substantially responsive to their changing surroundings. To put the matter more bluntly, a social system implies that people act partly as cogs in a social and economic machine. People play their roles while driven by pressures from the whole system. Accepting the dominance of social systems over individuals is contrary to our cherished illusion that people freely make their own decisions.”
296. G. Bowen (1994) – System dynamics, determinism and choice: toward a reconsideration of the image of `system man’ – System Dynamics Review 10:87-90
     “[By using system dynamics] individuals can design and affect the redesign of the social and managerial systems that impose on them … [therefore] individuals … retain – at least in part – the ability to make autonomous decisions that can play a role in determining their own fates.”
297. David C. Lane (2001) – Rerum cognoscere causas: Part II— Opportunities generated by the agency/structure debate and suggestions for clarifying the social theoretic position of system dynamics – System Dynamics Review 17:293–309 doi:10.1002/sdr.221 – Senior Lecturer at the London School of Economics and Political Science, in London University – http://www.albany.edu/cpr/sdgroup/pad824/Lane2.pdf
     “This [agency/structure] debate aims to move beyond both the theories based only on the actions of individual human agents, and those theories that emphasise only structural influences … The main conclusion is therefore that system dynamics can contribute to an important part of social thinking by providing a formal approach for explicating social mechanisms.”
298. Ilya Prigogine (2003) – Is Future Given? – World Scientific Publishing Co – ISBN-13: 978-9812385086 – 80 Págs. – http://www.scribd.com/doc/21946936/Is-Future-Given-Ilya-Prigogine-2003
299. John D. Sterman (2002) – Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world – Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division – Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology – https://esd.mit.edu/WPS/internal-symposium/esd-wp-2003-01.13.pdf
     “The tendency to blame the person rather than the system is so strong psychologists call it the “fundamental attribution error.” (Sterman, 2000, p. 28)”
300. Georgi Marko Dimirovski (2008) – Applied System and Control Sciences to Social Systems: Globalization Age Paradigms – IFAC World Congress 17:1, May 2008 – Dogus University, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Computer Engineering, Istanbul + SS Cyril and Methodius University, Faculty of Electronic Engineering & Information Technologies, Republic of Macedonia – http://www.ifac-papersonline.net/Detailed/36593.html
     “Thus all kinds of social systems, being essentially human centred systems, is a cross-, inter- and multi-disciplinary challenge to systems and control researchers. Social systems in modern civilization are reviewed from the systems science viewpoint and on the grounds of recent developments in control science and technology and with regard to globalization paradigm.”
301. John D. Sterman (2002) – Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world – Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division – MIT Sloan School of Management – https://esd.mit.edu/WPS/internal-symposium/esd-wp-2003-01.13.pdf
     “Today’­s problems often arise as unintended consequences of yesterday’­s solutions. Social systems often suffer from policy resistance, the tendency for well-intentioned interventions to be defeated by the response of the system to the intervention itself … Drawing on engineering control theory and the modern theory of nonlinear dynamical systems, system dynamics often involves the development of formal models and ­management flight simulators­ to capture complex dynamics, and to create an environment for learning and policy design. Unlike ­pure­ engineering problems – ­if any exist­ – human systems present unique challenges, including long time horizons, issues that cross disciplinary boundaries, the need to develop reliable models of human behavior, and the great difficulty of experimental testing.”
302. Andrew J. Jarvis et al (2008) – A robust sequential CO2 emissions strategy based on optimal control of atmospheric CO2 concentrations – Climatic Change 86:357-373 doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9298-4 – Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University – 4 autores
     “This paper formally introduces the concept of mitigation as a stochastic control problem … The framework explicitly considers the closed-loop nature of climate mitigation, and employs a policy orientated optimisation procedure to specify the properties of this closed-loop system.”
303. Andrew Jarvis et al (2009) – Stabilizing global mean surface temperature: A feedback control perspective – Environmental Modelling & Software 24:665-674 doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.10.016 – Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University; Engineering Department, Lancaster University; Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University; School of Electrical Engineering and Telecommunications, University of New South Wales, Sydney – 4 autores
     “Given the inherent dynamic character of this closed-loop problem, we envisage the metrics highlighted in this paper, such as the positioning of closed-loop eigenvalues in the complex plane, should become as much a part of the mitigation debate as metrics derived from more established frameworks.”
304. Andrew J. Jarvis, comunicación personal
305. Slobodan P. Simonovic and Evan G. R. Davies (2005) – Are we modelling impacts of climatic change properly? – Hydrological Processes 20:431–433 doi:10.1002/hyp.6106 – The University of Western Ontario
     “As a well-established methodology for the analysis and modelling of complex systems (Sterman, 2000; Simonovic, 2002; Simonovic and Rajasekaram, 2004), system dynamics simulation is particularly well suited to modelling the social–economic–climatic system. It facilitates representation of feedback processes, time delays, stock and flow processes, and nonlinearities, and allows mathematical modelling of both biophysical and socio-economic systems with equal effectiveness. Introduction of system dynamics with its explicit feedback processes to the modelling community could serve as a link between socio-economic and scientific disciplines, and provide an example of the communication process between scientific and policy communities.”
306. Georgi M. Dimirovski et al (2006) – Control system approaches for sustainable development and instability management in the globalization age – Annual Reviews in Control 30:103-115 doi:10.1016/j.arcontrol.2006.01.004 – Dogus University, Faculty of Engineering, Acibadem, Kadikoy, Turkey – 6 autores
     “Social systems of contemporary civilization are reviewed from the systems science viewpoint and on the grounds of recent developments in control science and technology. Recent developments have emphasised the social responsibility of the control community during the on-going globalization and changes from the Cold-War bipolar world to a unipolar one, on the way to mankind’s multi-polar world of the future.”
307. Georgi Marko Dimirovski (2008) – Applied System and Control Sciences to Social Systems: Globalization Age Paradigms – IFAC World Congress 17:1 Dogus University, Faculty of Engineering, Dept. of Computer Engineering, Istanbul + SS Cyril and Methodius University, Faculty of Elec. Eng. & Info. Technologies, Republic of Macedonia – http://www.ifac-papersonline.net/Detailed/36593.html
     “The innovative systems approaches employing results from hybrid systems theory and dynamical networks are needed to address the now-old challenges of combined knowledge and technology transfer world-wide for sustainable development that may remedy climate change and some of the negative socio-economic aspects of globalization.”
308. Martin Parry (2009) – Closing the loop between mitigation, impacts and adaptation. An Editorial Essay – Climatic Change 96:23-27 doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9646-7 – Grantham Institute, Imperial College London
     “In its Fourth Assessment (2007) the IPCC was unable to address successfully the single most important policy question about confronting climate change: “What combinations of emissions reduction and adaptation can best reduce the impacts of climate change?” … Its omission stems from two things: (a) failure to frame the question that would help synthesize current knowledge, and (b) lack of knowledge itself on the connections between mitigation, impacts and adaptation. The first failing is easier to remedy than the second.”
309. Richard J.T. Klein et al (2005) – Integrating mitigation and adaptation into climate and development policy: three research questions – Environmental Science & Policy 8:579–588 doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2005.06.010 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research + Stockholm Environment Institute–Oxford – http://www.unisdr.org/files/1140_sdarticle.pdf – 3 autores
     “The potential for developing synergies between climate change mitigation and adaptation has become a recent focus of both climate research and policy … analysis needs to focus on the optimal use and expected effectiveness of financial instruments, taking into account the mutual effects between these instruments on the one hand, and national and international sectoral investments and official development assistance on the other.”
310. Bahna et al (2008) – A stochastic control model for optimal timing of climate policies – Automatica 44:1545-1558 doi:10.1016/j.automatica.2008.03.004 – GERAD and MQG, HEC Montréal
     “The optimal policy is characterized using the dynamic programming solution to a piecewise deterministic optimal control problem … The most striking characteristic of stochastic optimal control appears to be its ability to follow intermediary investment paths before revelation of the true climate sensitivity; all the while a precautionary principle prevails for emissions.”
311. David Tàbara (2009) – Integrated Climate Governance (ICG) and sustainable development – Conference on ‘Sustainable Development. A Challenge for European Research’ – Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, Autonomous University of Barcelona – http://ec.europa.eu/research/sd/conference/2009/papers/21/david_tabara_-_icg_.pdf
     “The intensity and scale of persistent problems increases when no institutional and social learning occurs. The choice of one-dimensional measures for problems and policies which are inextricably interlinked together -such as those related to water scarcity and pollution, energy, land-use management, or biodiversity/ecosystems functions conservation- often result in the accumulation of negative side effects and the worsening of the initial conditions of the systems of reference in which such problems originally emerged (figure 1)1.”
312. Transforming the World in an Era of global Change – 3rd Nobel Laureate Symposium on Global Sustainability – 19/05/2011 – Stockholm Resilience Centre – http://globalsymposium2011.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/resilience_summaryXlow2.pdf
     “Key Messages: Policy makers around the world need to adopt a new systems thinking that pays much more attention to the negative side-effects of quick fixes and recognises the numerous possibilities in investing in sustainable use of ecosystems and their services.”
313. Jack Harich (2010) – Change resistance as the crux of the environmental sustainability problem – System Dynamics Review 26:35–72 doi:10.1002/sdr.431 – 1164 DeLeon Court, Clarkston, GA 30021, U.S.A. – http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/sdr.431/pdf
     “Why, despite over 30 years of prodigious effort, has the human system failed to solve the environmental sustainability problem? Decomposing the problem into two sequential subproblems, (1) how to overcome change resistance and (2) how to achieve proper coupling, opens up a fresh line of attack. A simulation model shows that in problems of this type the social forces favoring resistance will adapt to the forces favoring change.”
314. Peter A. Corning (2002) – ‘Devolution’ as an opportunity to test the ‘synergism hypothesis’ and a cybernetic theory of political systems – Systems Research and Behavioral Science 19:3-26 doi:10.1002/sres.421 – Institute for the Study of Complex Systems –
     “[D]evolution provides an opportunity for testing the Synergism Hypothesis and the theory that functional synergies are the very cause of the differential selection and survival of complex systems and their cybernetic subsystems.”
315. Zygmunt Bauman (2001) – En busca de la política – Fondo de Cultura Económica USA – ISBN-13: 978-9505573639 – 218 Págs.
     “Si se nos pregunta si somos libres diríamos que sí, pero si se nos pregunta si creemos ser capaces de cambiar del mundo que nos rodea, ya sea individualmente o en grupos, diríamos que poco o muy poca cosa. La contradicción entre estos dos hechos salta a la vista a cualquiera familiarizado con el pensamiento lógico.”
316. John Bechhoefer (2005) – Feedback for physicists: A tutorial essay on control – Reviews of Modern Physics 77:783-836 – Department of Physics, Simon Fraser University, – http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.124.7043&rep=rep1&type=pdf  “Feedback and control theory are important ideas that should form part of the education of a physicist but rarely do. … [they] are such important concepts that it is odd that they usually find no formal place in the education of physicists … Introductory engineering textbooks … are long (800 pages is typical) … their examples are understandably geared more to the engineers than to the physicist.”
317. Tesi Becerra
318. Thomas S. Fiddaman (1997) – Feedback Complexity in Integrated Climate-Economy Models – Submitted to the Alfred P. Sloan School of Management in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Thesis Supervisor John D. Sterman – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – http://www.metasd.com/papers/Fiddaman%20Dissertation%20Climate%20FREE.PDF
     “In reality, a number of long delays impose important constraints on the energy-economy system.”
319. Donnella Meadows, Jørgen Randers, Dennis Meadows (2004) – Los Límites del crecimiento: 30 años después – Galaxia Gutenberg – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – ISBN: 8481096016 – 514 Págs.
     “Una lección que se desprende de las seis simulaciones anteriores es que, en un mundo complejo y finito, si se elimina o eleva un límite, después aparecerá otro límite. Especialmente si el crecimiento es exponencial, el siguiente límite aparecerá con una prontitud sorprendente. Existen capas de límites. World3 sólo contiene algunas de ellas.” (p. 353)
320. W. Phillips (1957) – Stabilisation policy and the time-forms of lagged responses – The Economic Journal 67:265–77 doi:10.1017/CBO9780511521980.019 – London School of Economics – http://ebooks.cambridge.org/chapter.jsf?bid=CBO9780511521980&cid=CBO9780511521980A027
     “A study, using frequency-response analysis and electronic simulators, of the properties of models in which the lags are given more realistic time-forms has shown that the problem of stabilisation is more complex than appeared to be the case when attention was confined to the simpler lag forms used in my earlier article.”
321. Ragnar Frisch (1933) – Propagation Problems and Impulse Problems in Dynamic Economics – En: Economic essays in honour of Gustav Cassel – University of Oslo – http://www.sv.uio.no/econ/om/tall-og-fakta/nobelprisvinnere/ragnar-frisch/published-scientific-work/PPIP%5B1%5D.pdf
     “If a cyclical variation is analysed from the point of view of a free oscillation, we have to distinguish between two fundamental problems: first, the propagation problem; second, the impulse problem. ”
322. T. Newlyn (1950) – The Phillips/Newlyn Hydraulic Model – Yorkshire Bulletin of Economic and Social Research 2:111-127 doi:10.1111/j.1467-8586.1950.tb00370.x – The University, Leeds
323. W. Phillips (1954) – Stabilisation policy in a closed economy – The Economic Journal 64:290-323 – London School of Economics – http://xmlservices.unisi.it/depfid/joomla/iscrizione/materiali/16888/Phillips%20EJ%201954.pdf
     “if any stabilisation policy is to be successful it must be made up of a suitable combination of proportional, integral and derivative elements … If the system itself has a considerable tendency to oscillate […], the integral element in the policy should be made very weak or avoided entirely, unless it can be accompanied by sufficient derivative correction to offset the destabilising effects […].”
324. Dennis L. Meadows et al (1974) – Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World – Productivity Press Inc. – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – ISBN-13: 978-0262131421 – 637 Págs.
325. John D. Sterman and Linda Booth Sweeney (2002) – Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding of Global Warming – System Dynamics Review 18(2) – Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology – http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/cloudy_skies1.pdf
     “In his widely cited DICE model, Nordhaus (1992a, 1992b) violates the law of conservation of mass by assuming a significant fraction of carbon emissions simply disappear (Nordhaus assumed these emissions flow into a limitless sink outside the model boundary) ”
326. Robert Costanza et al (2007) – Integrated global models – En: Costanza, R., L. J. Graumlich, and W. Steffen (eds.). 2007- Sustainability or Collapse: An Integrated History and future Of People on Earth. Dahlem Workshop Report 96. MIT Press – Gund Institute of Ecological Economics, Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, The University of Vermont – http://www.pdx.edu/sites/www.pdx.edu.sustainability/files/Costanza%20et%20al.%20Dahlem%20book%202007.pdf
     “’The main result of aggregation theory is that aggregation is generally possible only when the underlying micro relations are linear’ (Nordhaus 1973, p. 1160). This, combined with the simple basic structure of DICE, means that there are no real possibilities for “surprises” in DICE like the kind we have come to expect in the real world, and that can emerge from some of the other models reviewed here. Yet, there is no discussion of the possibly huge impacts of aggregation error other than Nordhaus’s contention that the level of aggregation used was necessary in order that ‘the theoretical model is transparent and the optimization model is empirically tractable.’ Good goals, but hardly justification for a model intended to be used to set realistic global policies on greenhouse warming. ”
327. Stephen H. Schneider (1997) – Integrated assessment modeling of global climate change: Transparent rational tool for policy making or opaque screen hiding value-laden assumptions? – Environmental Modeling and Assessment 2:229-249 doi:10.1023/A:1019090117643 – Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University
     “The basic rationale for what I am calling by analogy ‘ergodic economics’, is that process-based simulation models, no matter how complex are, nonetheless, still very “dumb” relative to real natural/social systems … the reliability of the hedonic method rests on three quite fundamental assumptions that need to be explicit in the minds of potential users of the results before they let this method provide policy advice on the viability of adaptation, for instance.”
328. Michael J. Radzicki (2011) – System Dynamics and Its Contribution to Economics and Economic Modeling – Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics 2011:727-737 doi:10.1007/978-1-4419-7701-4_39 – Worcester Polytechnic Institute – http://ebooks.narotama.ac.id/files/Complex%20Systems%20in%20Finance%20and%20Econometrics/Chapter%2039%20%20System%20Dynamics%20and%20Its%20Contribution%20to%20Economics%20and%20Economic%20Modeling.pdf
     “The simple two sector Keynesian cross model presented in Fig. 4 is an example of a well known economic model that can be improved after it has been translated into a system dynamics format. More specifically, in this example the flow of investment spending in the model does not accumulate anywhere. This violates good system dynamics modeling practice and can be fixed. Figure 5 presents the improved version of the Keynesian Cross model, which now more closely adheres to the system dynamics paradigm.”
329. Paul P. Christensen (1987) – Classical roots for a modern materials-energy analysis – Ecological Modelling 38:75–89 doi:10.1016/0304-3800(87)90045-7 – Department of Economics, Hofstra University
     “The new technology generates a larger surplus which is reinvested. As long as access to low-entropy energy and material can be sustained, the system can grow at an exponential rate. The constraint of limited resources is in turn continually pushed back by technological change and the exploitation and depletion of new resources. This dynamic feature of production systems is consistent with the emphasis of Post-Keynesian on distribution and accumulation but it is entirely missed by the efficiency emphasis of neoclassical theory.”
330. Alfred S. Eichner and Jan A. Kregel (1975) – An Essay on Post-Keynesian Theory: A New Paradigm in Economics – Journal of Economic Literature 8:1293-1314 – State University of New York at Purchase and Conservation of Human Resources Project, Columbia University; University of Southampton – https://www.scribd.com/doc/43515845/An-Essay-on-Post-Keynesian-Theory-A-New-Paradigm-in-Economics
     “Economics…is largely an outgrowth of the eighteenth-century mechanistic view of the universe…over the last several decades, however, quite a different philosophical framework has emerged … This is the systems … approach. The advantage which it offers … is that it can incorporate within its analytical structure (a) purposeful activity, (b) cumulative processes, and (c) the interaction of subsystems, both as part of a larger systems dynamic and in response to feedback from the environment … Under the systems approach, economics is no longer the study of how scarce resources are allocated … It is instead the study of how an economic system…is able to expand its output over time (p. 171-172).”
331. Michael J. Radzicki (2007) – Institutional economics, post keynesian economics, and system dynamics: Three strands of a heterodox economics braid – International Confederation of Associations for Pluralism in Economics (ICAPE) Conference on the “Future of Heterodox Economics” – Associate Professor of Economics, Department of Social Science & Policy Studies, Worcester Polytechnic Institute – https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Michael_Radzicki/publication/237138677_Institutional_Economics_Post_Keynesian_Economics_and_System_Dynamics_Three_Strands_of_a_Heterodox_Economics_Braid/links/02e7e53331eeea388c000000?origin=publication_detail
     “This suggests that post Keynesian economics can be profitably used to devise policies aimed at keeping chronically demand deficient capitalist systems at full employment, while institutional economics can be effectively used to devise policies aimed at addressing the technological, structural, and sectoral changes required when capitalist systems actually reach their full employment levels.3 In addition, institutional economics can be used to add value to post Keynesian efforts to model and improve macroeconomic reality through its insights into the dynamic implications of relative economic power that it has accumulated via its “pattern modeling” or “look and see”/case study methodology, and through its instrumental or goal-seeking approach to policy formulation.”
332. Barry Richmond (1985) – Conversing with a classic thinker: An illustration from economics. Users Guide to STELLA – High Performance Systems, Inc, Lyme, New Hampshire, pp 75–94
333. John R. Hicks (1950) – A contribution to the theory of the trade cycle – Oxford University Press – Fellow of Nuffied College – ASIN: B002PDKUKU – 201 Págs.
334. Michael J. Radzicki (2011) – System Dynamics and Its Contribution to Economics and Economic Modeling – Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics 2011:727-737 doi:10.1007/978-1-4419-7701-4_39 – Worcester Polytechnic Institute – http://ebooks.narotama.ac.id/files/Complex%20Systems%20in%20Finance%20and%20Econometrics/Chapter%2039%20%20System%20Dynamics%20and%20Its%20Contribution%20to%20Economics%20and%20Economic%20Modeling.pdf
     “Translating existing static and written economic models and theories into a system dynamics format is a more formidable task. Written models and theories are often dynamic, yet are described without mathematics. Static models and theories are often presented with mathematics, but lack equations that describe the dynamics of any adjustment processes they may undergo. As such, system dynamicists must devise equations that capture the dynamics being described by the written word or that reveal the adjustment processes that take place when a static system moves from one equilibrium point to another. ”
335. Fritz Söllner (1997) – A reexamination of the role of thermodynamics for environmental economics – Ecological Economics 22:175-201 doi:10.1016/S0921-8009(97)00078-5 – University of Bayreuth
     “Evidently, the neoclassical paradigm and its value concept have to be given up. But the alternative of the energy theory of value must be rejected because its determinism cannot be reconciled with the richness of human behaviour. As thermodynamic analogies offer no solution either, there is a dilemma between the necessity and the apparent impossibility of adequately integrating thermodynamic concepts.”
336. Jay W. Forrester (1980) – Information sources for modeling the national economy – Journal of the American Statistical Association 75:555–567 doi:10.1080/01621459.1980.10477508 – Massachusetts Institute of Technology
     “The daily and weekly business press contains information from which a model can bridge from microstructure to macrobehavior. The System Dynamics National Model draws on all classes of information for its structure and policies. The National Model, without exogenous time series inputs, generates 3- to 7-year business cycles, 15- to 25-year capital cycles, 45- to 60-year long waves, and the processes of inflation, unemployment, and stagflation. Such a simulation model, based on a diversity of information sources, can shed new light on economic dynamics.”
337. John D. Sterman (1985) – A behavioral model of the economic long wave – Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 6:17-53 doi:10.1016/0167-2681(85)90023-X – Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
     “This paper presents a simple model of the economic long wave. The model is based on the System Dynamics National Model … The structure of the model is shown to be consistent with the principles of bounded rationality.”
338. Jan A.J. Stolwijk (1980) – Comment on ‘information sources for modeling the national economy’ by Jay W Forrester – Journal of the American Statistical Association 75:569–572 – Department of Epidemiology and Public Health + Institution for Social and Policy Studies, Yale University
339. Zellner (1980) – Comment on ‘information sources for modeling the national economy’ by Jay W Forrester – Journal of the American Statistical Association 75:567–569
340. Henry Blackaby and Richard Blackaby (2008) – God in the Marketplace: 45 Questions Fortune 500 Executives Ask About Faith, Life, and Business – B&H Books – ISBN-13: 978-0805446883 – 288 Págs.
     “Blackaby believes that just as Jesus had businessmen among His original disciples, so may God be calling out businesspeople today in preparation for a worldwide spiritual revival. However, while those in the marketplace may have excellent educations and access to world-class leadership seminars, they often feel inadequate in matters of spiritual influence. God in the Marketplace will help them better understand what the Bible says about integrating their Christian faith with their work lives and provide biblical answers to the common yet difficult questions that are often raised for Christians at work.”
341. Paul Harvey – Fix the Economy GOD’$ WAY: Dave Ramsey’s Great Christian Recovery – RD Magazine, 25/07/2011 – http://www.religiondispatches.org/archive/atheologies/4905/fix_the_economy_god%E2%80%99$_way%3A_dave_ramsey%E2%80%99s_great_christian_recovery_/
     “What if a whole country started handling money God’s ways,” Ramsey asked his audience rhetorically. God’s ways would not include, for example, Social Security, since God would not want to invest for the long-term at such a modest rate of return (hence his advice to “opt out” of the Social Security system when you legally can do so). God’s ways don’t include progressive taxation, since God desires us to emulate the habits of the wealthy. And God’s ways do not countenance government engaging in the “theft” of economic resources (taxation) that we have worked for and are rightfully ours. God’s ways involve no government schemes towards the common good, for God commands individuals to help themselves that they might then help others privately and voluntarily. God’s plan, in short, is the libertarian plan mixed with Christian self-restraint; for capitalism without morality is anarchy.”
342. Peter Montgomery – Jesus Hates Taxes: Biblical Capitalism Created Fertile Anti-Union Soil – RD Magazine, 14/03/2011 – http://www.religiondispatches.org/archive/politics/4366/jesus_hates_taxes%3A_biblical_capitalism_created_fertile_anti-union_soil –
     “Pseudo-historian David Barton, a frequent guest of broadcaster Glenn Beck, is using his newly enlarged audience to promote American exceptionalism (America was created by its divinely-inspired founders as a country of, by, and for Christians) and Tea Party-on-steroids economics (Jesus and the Bible oppose progressive taxes, capital gains taxes, estate taxes, and minimum wage laws).”
343. Gary Becker (1962) – Irrational Behaviour and Economic Theory – Journal of Political Economy LXX:1:1-13 – Carnegie Mellon University – http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/econ/Becker,%2520Irrational%2520Behavior.pdf “The purpose of this paper is not to contribute still another defense of economic rationality. Rather it is to show how the important theorems of modern economics result from a general principle which not only includes rational behavior and survivor arguments as special cases, but also much irrational behavior.”
344. Dhananjay K. Gode and Shyam Sunder (1993) – Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality – Journal of Political Economy CI::119-37 – Carnegie Mellon University – http://cadia.ru.is/wiki/_media/public:i-700-abms-07-1:gode_and_sunder_1993_jpe_allocative_efficiency.pdf
     “We report market experiments in which human traders are replaced by ‘zero-intelligence’ programs that submit random bids and offers. Imposing a budget constraint (ie, not permitting traders to sell below their costs or buy above their values) is sufficient to raise the allocative efficiency of these auctions close to 100 percent.”
345. Christian Erik Kampmann andJohn D. Sterman (2014) – Do markets mitigate misperceptions of feedback? – System Dynamics Review 30:123–160 doi:10.1002/sdr.1515 – System Dynamics Group, MIT Sloan School of Management
     “We develop experimental markets to explore whether different price institutions improve performance in dynamic decision tasks. We find: (i) … and (ii) markets improve performance, though it remains significantly below optimal.”
346. Robert M. Solow (1956) – A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth – The Quarterly Journal of Economics 70:65–94 doi:10.2307/1884513 – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – http://faculty.lebow.drexel.edu/LainczC/cal38/Growth/Solow_1956.pdf
     “All theory depends on assumptions which are not quite true. That is what makes it theory. The art of successful theorizing is to make the inevitable simplifying assumptions in such a way that the final results are not very sensitive.”
347. David I. Stern (2004) – The rise and fall of the environmental Kuznets curve – World Development 32:1419–1439 doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2004.03.004 – Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute – http://steadystate.org/wp-content/uploads/Stern_KuznetsCurve.pdf
     “Recent evidence shows however, that developing countries are addressing environmental issues, sometimes adopting developed country standards with a short time lag and sometimes performing better than some wealthy countries, and that the EKC results have a very flimsy statistical foundation.”
348. Wang et al (2013) – Estimating the environmental Kuznets curve for ecological footprint at the global level: A spatial econometric approach – Ecological Indicators 43:15-21 doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2013.03.021 – Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Environmental Processes and Ecological Remediation, Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences – 4 autores
     “The results do not show evidence of inverted U-shape Environmental Kuznets Curve. The domestic ecological footprint of consumption (or production) was obviously influenced by the ecological footprint of consumption (or production), income and biocapacity in neighborhood countries. We also found that the consumption footprint is more sensitive to domestic income, while production footprint is more sensitive to domestic biocapacity, which is often unnoticed in EKC hypothesis analyses that focus exclusively on the consumption-based or production-based indictors.”
349. Marina Fischer-Kowalski et al (2011) – Decoupling Natural Resource Use and Environmental Impacts from Economic Growth – United Nations Environment Programme – International Resource Panel – Working Group on Decoupling – http://www.unep.org/resourcepanel/decoupling/files/pdf/Decoupling_Report_English.pdf – 12 autores
     “Decoupling will lead to absolute reductions in resource use only when the growth rate of resource productivity exceeds the growth rate of the economy. This latter case is reflected in the ‘environmental Kuznets curve’, where the environmental impact of production and consumption decreases as prosperity rises beyond a certain point. ”
350. Robert M. Solow (1974) – The Economics of Resources or the Resources of Economics – The American Economic Review 74:1-14 – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – http://nordhaus.econ.yale.edu/documents/Solow_Resources.pdf
     “…the world can, in effect, get along without natural resources, so exhaustion is just an event, not a catastrophe… at some finite cost, production can be freed of dependence on exhaustible resources altogether.”
351. Ernst F. Schumacher (1973) – Small is Beautiful: Economics as if People Mattered – Sphere Books – Oxford University – ISBN-13: 978-0060916305 – 352 Págs. –
     “If the economist … remains unaware of the fact that there are boundaries to applicability of the economic calculus, he is likely to fall into a similar kind of error as that of certain medieval theologians who tried to settle questions of physics by means of biblical quotations. Every science is beneficial within its proper limits, but becomes evil and destructive as soon as it transgresses them. (p. 42)”
352. John Foster (2004) – Why is Economics not a Complex Systems Science? – Discussion Paper No. 336 – School of Economics, The University of Queensland – http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/macrocas.foster.pdf
     “It is argued that all parts of the economy are inhabited by complex adaptive systems operating in complicated historical contexts and that this should be acknowledged at the core of economic analysis. It is explained how economics changes in fundamental ways when such a perspective is adopted, even if the presumption that people will try to optimize subject to constraints is retained.”
353. David Colander et al (2004) – The changing face of mainstream economics – Review of Political Economy 16:485-499 doi:10.1080/0953825042000256702 – Middlebury College – http://cat2.middlebury.edu/econ/repec/mdl/ancoec/0327.pdf
     “This article argues that economics is currently undergoing a fundamental shift in its method, away from neoclassical economics and into something new. Although that something new has not been fully developed, it is beginning to take form and is centered on dynamics, recursive methods and complexity theory. The foundation of this change is coming from economists who are doing cutting edge work and influencing mainstream economics. These economists are defining and laying the theoretical groundwork for the fundamental shift that is occurring in the economics profession.”
354. Jesús Ramos-Martin (2003) – Empiricism In Ecological Economics: A Perspective From Complex Systems Theory – Ecological Economics 46:387-398 doi:10.1016/S0921-8009(03)00191-5 – Departament d’Economia I d’Història Econòmica, Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
     “Economies are open complex adaptive systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium, and neo-classical environmental economics seems not to be the best way to describe the behaviour of such systems. Standard econometric analysis (i.e. time series) takes a deterministic and predictive approach, which encourages the search for predictive policy to ‘correct’ environmental problems. Rather, it seems that, because of the characteristics of economic systems, an ex-post analysis is more appropriate, which describes the emergence of such systems’ properties, and which sees policy as a social steering mechanism. With this background, some of the recent empirical work published in the field of ecological economics that follows the approach defended here is presented.”
355. Laurence Arnold – Jay Levy, Part of ‘Dynasty’ That Forecast 2008 Crash, Dies at 90 – Bloomberg, 09/10/2012 – http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-08/jay-levy-part-of-dynasty-that-forecast-2008-crash-dies-at-90.html
     “’It’s a simple equation based on common sense’,” Levy told the New York Times for a 1988 article. ‘We all know that large profits persuade businesses to expand and that skimpy profits lead business to retrench. Yet almost all other economists overlook profits in forecasting, while we believe that by focusing on total business profits you get the most accurate forecast possible, since profits are what motivate most of the production in a private-enterprise economy.’.”
356. David A. Levy et al (1997) – Where Profits Come From: Answering the Critical Question That Few Ever Ask – Levy Forecast – http://www.levyforecast.com/assets/Profits.pdf
     “Yet conventional macroeconomics, the study of the economy as a whole, rarely considers the role of total profits. When most business cycle analysts address the economy’s overall performance, they focus on gross domestic product (GDP) and largely ignore aggregate profits. This is like assessing a firm’s health by looking at its sales but not at its bottom line. In fact, any comprehensive analysis of business cycle dynamics must consider aggregate profits. For this reason, where profits come from and what determines their magnitude are critical questions. The view of the economy that focuses on the profit creation process is the profits perspective.”
357. Bernard Guerrien (2004) – Is There Someting To Expect From Game Theory? – En: Edward Fullbrook (ed.), A Guide to What’s Wrong with Economics, Anthem Press, London and New York, 2004 – Université Paris 1 (Panthéon-Sorbonne) – http://bernardguerrien.com/Sometingtoexpectfromgametheory.pdf
     “If the answer that you are given is of the kind: theory always simplifies, it tries to explain ‘stylised facts’, to understand what rational choices can be in different kinds of situations (catching some important aspects of real life), then ask: ‘OK, but then, can you tell me what are the predictions of game theory, its proposed ‘solutions’?r … If it doesn’t come, or if it is confused, then close your eyes and your ears, and refuse all the figures and maths studying “properties” of Nash equilibria, and so on.”
358. Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium – Wikipedia , 30/12/2011 – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamic_stochastic_general_equilibrium
     “The European Central Bank (ECB) has developed a DSGE model, often called the Smets–Wouters model,[7] which it uses to analyze the economy of the Eurozone as a whole (in other words, the model does not analyze individual European countries separately) … Willem Buiter of the London School of Economics has argued that DSGE models rely excessively on an assumption of complete markets, and are unable to describe the highly nonlinear dynamics of economic fluctuations, making training in ‘state-of-the-art’ macroeconomic modeling “a privately and socially costly waste of time and resources.”
359. Olivier Blanchard (2014) – Where Danger Lurks – Finance & Development – IMF’s Economic Counsellor and head of its Research Department – http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2014/09/pdf/blanchard.pdf
     “But this answer skirts a harder question: How should we modify our benchmark models—the so-called dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models that we use, for example, at the IMF to think about alternative scenarios and to quantify the effects of policy decisions? The easy and uncontroversial part of the answer is that the DSGE models should be expanded to better recognize the role of the financial system—and this is happening. But should these models be able to describe how the economy behaves in the dark corners? ”
360. Donald Saari (1995) – Mathematical complexity of simple economics – Notices of the American Mathematical Society 42:222-230 – Department of Mathematics, Northwestern University – http://cema.cufe.edu.cn/admin/data/uploadfile/200907/20090720082740710.pdf
     “Sonnenschein provided an answer, Mantel [M] improved it, and Debreu [De1] proved the version of the SMD theorem … ensures there exist endowments and continuous, strictly convex preferences for the a n agents so that, at least on the trimmed price simplex, the aggregate excess demand function is the chosen vector field. It now is trivial to dismiss the Smith story simply by choosing a vector field of the kind illustrated in Figure 2a with a lone, unstable equilibrium.”
361. Mark Buchanan – Arrow-Debreu Derangement Syndrome – The Physics of Finance, 11/08/2014 – http://physicsoffinance.blogspot.se/2014/08/arrow-debreu-derangement-syndrome.html
     “The attention, I suspect, must come from some prior fascination with the idea of competitive equilibrium, and a desire to see the world through that lens, a desire that is more powerful than the desire to understand the real world itself. This fascination really does hold a kind of deranging power over economic theorists, so powerful that they lose the ability to think in even minimally logical terms; they fail to distinguish necessary from sufficient conditions, and manage to overlook the issue of the stability of equilibria. ”
362. Mark Buchanan – Arrow-Debreu Derangement Syndrome – The Physics of Finance, 11/08/2014 – http://physicsoffinance.blogspot.se/2014/08/arrow-debreu-derangement-syndrome.html
     “If the demon tried to tell you that these theorems were at the very core of today’s theoretical approach to (much of) economics, you’d think he or she was joking. If the demon insisted, you’d suspect you were dealing with an insane demon; and if you discovered the demon was right, you suspect the economics profession of being deranged. At least I would…”
363. Geoff Davies (2013) – Sack the Economists and Disband Their Departments – BWM Books – ISBN-13: 978-0992360368 – 252 Págs. – http://sacktheeconomists.com/
     “Mainstream economics has multiple fundamental flaws that cause great harm to people’s lives, to societies and to the planet. This book concisely and simply explains the flaws, and uses modern knowledge and systems ideas to show how market economies can be more sensibly managed to deliver a healthy and more equitable world.”
364. Steve Keen (2001) – Debunking Economics, The Naked Emperor of the Social Sciences – Pluto Press – University of Western Sydney – ISBN-13: 978-1856499927 – 352 Págs.
365. John F. Muth (1961) – Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements – Econometrica 29:6 – Carnegie Institute of Technology – http://www.fep.up.pt/docentes/pcosme/S-E-1/se1_trab_0910/se1.pdf
     “In order to explain fairly simply how expectations are formed, we advance the hypothesis that they are essentially the same as the predictions of the relevant economic theory.”
366. Brian Arthur (1999) – Complexity and the Economy – Science 284:107-109 doi:10.1126/science.284.5411.107 – Citibank Professor, Santa Fe Institute
     “This “rational expectations” approach is valid. But it assumes that agents can somehow deduce in advance what model will work, and that everyone “knows” that everyone knows to use this model (the common knowledge assumption.) What happens when forecasting models are not obvious and must be formed individually by agents who are not privy to the expectations of others? … Deductively there is an infinite regress. No “correct” expectational model can be assumed to be common knowledge, and from the agents’ viewpoint, the problem is ill-defined.”
367. John Jos. Miller (2005) – A Gift of Freedom: How the John M. Olin Foundation Changed America – Encounter Books – Writer for ‘National Review’ and contributing editor of ‘Philanthropy’ – ISBN-13: 978-1594031175 – 200 Págs.
     “Philanthropic foundations played a key role in obscuring the connection between the CIA and its funding recipients … “All available evidence points to the conclusion that the Vernon Fund is a creation of the CIA”, said the Post … At the time, [Kristol] did not know about the CIA’s covert support of [the British magazine] Encounter.” (p. 26,27,49)
368. Richard A. Posner (1977) – Economic Analysis of Law – Little, Brown and Company – ISBN-13: 978-0316714389 – 666 Págs.
     “Economics turns out to be a powerful tool of normative analysis of law and legal institutions – a source of criticism and reform.”
369. John L.R. Proops (1983) – Organisation and dissipation in economic systems – Journal of Social and Biological Structures 6:353-366 doi:10.1016/S0140-1750(83)90145-8 – Department of Economics, University of Keele
     “It is argued that if a physical viewpoint is taken, economies can be considered as self-organizing dissipative systems. Measures of organization and dissipation are proposed and empirical analysis indicates that organization and energy dissipation increase together for economic systems, and there is weaker evidence that energy ‘efficiency’ also increases with organization.”
370. Arto Annila and Stanley Salthe (2009) – Economies Evolve by Energy Dispersal – Entropy 11:606-633 doi:10.3390/e11040606 – Department of Biosciences + Institute of Biotechnology + Department of Physics, University of Helsinki; Biological Sciences, Binghamton University
     “It is not surprising that a statistical description yields statistical laws and regularities that are characteristic of diverse economic systems, but it is intriguing that the same theory also provides insight into the decision making by individual agents.”
371. François Roddier – Thermodynamique de l’évolution : Un essai de thermo-bio-sociologie – Éditions Parole – ISBN-13: 978-2917141328 – 100 Págs. – http://www.editions-parole.net/?wpsc-product=thermodynamique-de-levolution-un-essai-de-thermo-bio-sociologie
     “Ce livre n’est pas facile à lire. Pourtant, il est génial : il nous donne l’intelligence de comprendre une myriade de choses dont le sens nous échappait. Nous comprenons même de façon intuitive ce que nous ne comprenons pas. C’est jubilatoire.”
372. Inge Røpke (2004) – The early history of modern ecological economics – Ecological Economics 50:293-314 doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2004.02.012 – Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, Technical University of Denmark – http://www.uvm.edu:8889/~gundiee/publications/Ropke_2004.pdf
     “Whereas classical thermodynamics focused on equilibria in ‘isolated’ systems, Prigogine and others studied systems that are closed with regard to matter, but receive and give off energy. Such systems can be far from equilibrium, the processes taking place can be irreversible, and new structures can emerge— dissipative structures that are dependent upon continuous supply and the giving off of energy. The processes can be analysed by using the mathematics” related to non-linear dynamics that was integrated with systems theory in the 1960s.”
373. Charles A.S. Hall and John W. Day, Jr. (2009) – Revisiting the Limits to Growth After Peak Oil – American Scientist – College of Environmental Science and Forestry of the State University of New York at Syracuse; professor emeritus in the Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences of Louisiana State University – http://www.esf.edu/efb/hall/2009-05Hall0327.pdf
     “For those few scientists who still cared about resource-scarcity issues, there was not any specific place to apply for grants at the National Science Foundation or even the Department of Energy (except for studies to improve energy efficiency), so most of our best energy analysts worked on these issues on the weekend, after retirement or pro bono. With very few exceptions graduate training in energy analysis or limits to growth withered.”
374. Ugo Bardi (2011) – The Limits to Growth Revisited – Springer – Dipartimento di Chimica, Università di Firenze; ASPO – Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, Italian section – ISBN 978-1-4419-9416-5 – 119 Págs.
     “One of the consequences of the eclipse of “The Limits to Growth” in the 1990s was to slow down the development of studies on world modeling intended as including both the economy and the ecosystem as endogenous factors. Certainly, nearly all who examined this issue found that public funding to support their work essentially impossible to obtain. Today, an examination of the field (Fiddaman 2010a, b), shows that several such models have been developed or are being developed. However, the field does not seem to have reached the level of activity that one would expect for such an important issue.”
375. Mark Buchanan – This Economy Does Not Compute – The New York Times, 01/10/2008 – http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/01/opinion/01buchanan.html

“That’s not really surprising, of course. But the model also shows something that is not at all obvious. The instability doesn’t grow in the market gradually, but arrives suddenly. Beyond a certain threshold the virtual market abruptly loses its stability in a “phase transition” akin to the way ice abruptly melts into liquid water. Beyond this point, collective financial meltdown becomes effectively certain. This is the kind of possibility that equilibrium thinking cannot even entertain.”

376. Donnella Meadows, Jørgen Randers, Dennis Meadows (2004) – Los Límites del crecimiento: 30 años después – Galaxia Gutenberg – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – ISBN: 8481096016 – 514 Págs.
     “Pero los límites del crecimiento no limitan el número de personas, automóviles, casa o fábricas, al menos no directamente. Lo que limitan es el caudal productivo, es decir, los flujos continuos de material y energía que se precisan para mantener funcionando a la población, los automóviles, las casas o las fábricas.” (p. 53-54)
377. Ergodicidad – Wikipedia, 20/05/2013 – http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergodicidad
     “La ergodicidad es una propiedad muy importante de algunos sistemas mecánicos que permite justificar ciertos resultados de la mecánica estadística. Un sistema es ergódico si el único conjunto invariante de medida no nula de la hipersuperficie de energía constante del espacio de las fases es toda la hipersuperficie de energía constante. Los sistemas ergódicos tienen el interés de que en ellos el promedio temporal de ciertas magnitudes pueden obtenerse como promedios sobre el espacio de estados lo cual simplifica las predicciones sobre los mismos ”
378. David Fisk (2011) – Thermodynamics on Main Street: When entropy really counts in economics – Ecological Economics 70:1931–1936 doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.06.012 – Imperial College London
     “The implications of thermodynamics for economic theory have been a source of debate for 40 years. Adopting the framing used in modern engineering rather than physics suggests that the market place has already recognised most of these thermodynamic truths as self-evident rather than challenging basic concepts. The exception is the relatively small market for heat where the idea of thermodynamic grade, conveniently represented by the exergy or available work content of a heat source, exposes inconsistencies especially in monopoly supply and economic instruments. Earlier commentators were not wrong in the thrust of their criticisms of economic theory but may have been overly elaborate in their attack.”
379. Samuel Alexander (2014) – A Critique of Techno-Optimism: Efficiency without Sufficiency is Lost – Melbourne Sustainability Institute Working Paper – Post Carbon Pathways project – http://www.sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/files/mssi/PostCarbonPathways_WP1_Alexander_Critique-of-Techno-Optimism_2014.pdf
     “The central problem is that in a growth-orientated economy, efficiency gains are almost always reinvested into increasing production and consumption, not reducing them … even if there were an EKC, the ‘turning point’ in the curve would be occurring much too late in the process of development to validate anything like the conventional development path.”
380. Jay Wright Forrester (1969) – Urban Dynamics – MIT Press – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – ISBN-13: 978-0262060264 – 285 Págs.
381. Sicco Mansholt – Lettre à Franco Maria Malfati, président de la Commission européenne – 09/02/1972 – Commissioner for Agriculture – http://ecorev.org/spip.php?article803
     “Le rapport du M.I.T. sera publié prochainement … Les réflexions que je vous soumets sont fondées sur les conclusions du rapport et portent sur le thème suivant: Que pouvons-nous faire en tant qu’”Europe” et que devons-nous faire pour éviter que la machine ne se “grippe”? Les problèmes sont si fondamentaux, si complexes, et si étroitement liés que l’on peut se demander: Y a-t-il vraiment quelque chose à faire? L’Europe peut-elle intervenir? N’est-ce pas là une tâche qui concerne le monde entier?”
382. Timothée Duverger – Souvenirs, Mansholt et les limites de la croissance – Biosphère, 08/03/2014 – http://biosphere.blog.lemonde.fr/2014/03/08/souvenirs-mansholt-et-les-limites-de-la-croissance/
     “Sicco Mansholt … revendique sa conversion: ‘J’ai compris qu’il était impossible de s’en tirer par des adaptations : c’est l’ensemble de notre système qu’il faut revoir, sa philosophie qu’il faut radicalement changer.’ Puis il va au bout de sa pensée: ‘est-il possible de maintenir notre taux de croissance sans modifier profondément notre société ? En étudiant lucidement le problème, on voit bien que la réponse est non. Alors, il ne s’agit même plus de croissance zéro mais d’une croissance en dessous de zéro. ”
383. Jay W. Forrester (1989) – The Beginning of System Dynamics – Banquet Talk at the international meeting of the System Dynamics Society Stuttgart Germany – http://web.mit.edu/sysdyn/sd-intro/D-4165-1.pdf
     “And that the most damaging policy was to build low-cost housing. At that time, building low-cost housing was believed to be essential to reviving the inner cities. The conclusions of our work were not easily accepted. I recall one full professor of social science in our fine institution at MIT coming to me and saying, ‘I don’t care whether you’re right or wrong, the results are unacceptable.’ So much for academic objectivity! Others, probably believing the same thing, put it more cautiously as, ‘It doesn’t make any difference whether you’re right or wrong, urban officials and the residents of the inner city will never accept those ideas’.”
384. David Michaels (2008) – Doubt Is Their Product – Oxford University Press – American Association for the Advancement of Science’s Scientific Freedom and Responsibility Award – ISBN-13: 978-0195300673 – 384 Págs.
     “Skewed studies produced for the most mercenary of purposes are now accepted as part of the game … Conduct that was once considered unacceptable and that should be considered unacceptable is no longer stigmatized or even acknowledged as being corrupt … Polluters and manufacturers of dangerous products also fund think tanks and other front groups that are well known for their antagonism toward regulation and devotion to ‘free enterprise’ and ‘free markets’.” (p. 55)
385. Ugo Bardi (2011) – Los límites del crecimiento retomados – Los Libros de la Catarata – Universidad de Florencia – ISBN-13: 978-8483198711 – 232 Págs.
     “A pesar de la cualificación y de la experiencia de los autores, algunos comentarios de Cole y Curnow pusieron de relieve lo difícil que era… para personas no formadas en la dinámica de sistemas entender el propósito y la estructura del modelo dinámico.” (p. 105)
386. S.D. Cole et al (1973) – Models of doom: A Critique of the Limits to Growth – Universe Publishing – Sussex Group – ISBN-13: 978-0876639054 – 244 Págs.
     “Amazon: Claiming that the Sussex critics have applied ‘micro reasoning to macro problems,’ the autores of The Limits to Growth, in ‘A Response to Sussex,’ describe and analyze five major areas of disagreement between themselves and the Sussex autores.”
387. Mauricio Schoijet (1999) – Limits to Growth and the Rise of Catastrophism – Environmental History 4:515-530 doi:10.2307/3985399 Departamento El Hombre y su Ambiente, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana de Xochimilco
     “A group from the University of Sussex … argued that FM started from Ricardian assumptions, and not surprisingly resulted in Ricardian conclusions that they could have received without copmputers … the essential question not asked by the Sussex researchers is whether Ricardo was right. ”
388. William D. Nordhaus (1992) – Lethal Model 2: The Limits to Growth Revisited – Brookings Papers on Economic Activity – Yale University – http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/projects/bpea/1992 2/1992b_bpea_nordhaus_stavins_weitzman.pdf
     “In the sections that follow, I will discuss some of the major concerns about economic growth from both theoretical and empirical points of view. I will use the limits-to-growth debate as a reference point to understand the earlier debate about the limits to and perils of growth, and to provide some perspective about the newer debate about environmental threats.”
389. Graham M. Turner (2014) – Is Global Collapse Imminent? An Updated Comparison of The Limits to Growth with Historical Data – MSSI Research Papers nº 4 – Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, University of Melbourne – http://www.sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/files/mssi/MSSI-ResearchPaper-4_Turner_2014.pdf
     “The US economist William Nordhaus made technically erroneous judgments (in 1992) by focusing on isolated equations in World3 without considering the influence that occurs through the feedbacks in the rest of the model.”
390. Jay W. Forrester et al (1974) – The Debate on World Dynamics: A Response to Nordhaus – Policy Sciences 5:169-190 doi:10.1007/BF00148039 – Massachusetts – 3 autores
     “However, a careful examination of his analysis shows that each point made by Nordhaus rests on a misunderstanding of World Dynamics, a misuse of empirical data, or an inability to analyze properly the dynamic behavior of the model by static equilibrium methods.”
391. Ugo Bardi (2011) – The Limits to Growth Revisited – Springer – Dipartimento di Chimica, Università di Firenze; ASPO – Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, Italian section – ISBN 978-1-4419-9416-5 – 119 Págs.
     “But this is not Forrester’s assumption. Nordhaus had simply taken one of the equations from Forrester’s model and had plotted it keeping constant all parameters except one (the “non food consumption” that he equates to GNP). But Forrester’s model was never meant to work in this way. This point deserves to be explained in more detail.”
392. William D. Nordhaus (1973) – Word Dynamics: Measurements without Data – The Economic Journal 332:1156-1183 – Yale University – http://aida.wss.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/worlddynamics.pdf
     “In the spirit of Malthus, World Dynamics predicts an end to the economic progress that the West has experienced since the Industrial Revolution. The predictions are impressive to laymen and scientists alike because they appear to be derived from sophisticated models and extensive sensitivity analysis. ”
393. Jay W. Forrester et al (1974) – The Debate on World Dynamics: A Response to Nordhaus – Policy Sciences 5:169-190 doi:10.1007/BF00148039 – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – 3 autores
     “Nordhaus incorrectly compares a single dimensional relationship in world dynamics … with time series data. He fails to account for the presence of other variables influencing the time series. As a result, he erroneously asserts that the model is inconsistent with the data. In fact, the data Nordhaus present support the validity of the World Dynamics model assumptions.”
394. Ugo Bardi (2011) – The Limits to Growth Revisited – Springer – Dipartimento di Chimica, Università di Firenze; ASPO – Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, Italian section – ISBN 978-1-4419-9416-5 – 119 Págs.
     “On this issue, it is surprising that the editors of the “Economic Journal,” who published Nordhaus’s paper, did not ask Forrester to reply; as it is common policy, and even courtesy, in cases such as this one.”
395. Ugo Bardi (2011) – Los límites del crecimiento retomados – Los Libros de la Catarata – Departmento de Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad de Florencia – ISBN-13: 978-8483198711 – 232 Págs.
     “Parece claro, a partir de esta discusión, que Nordhaus, en su crítica al libro de Forrester, había omitido algunos puntos básicos de los modelos y de los propósitos del modelado del mundo según la dinámica de sistemas. Desafortunadamente, sin embargo, el artículo de Nordhaus en 1973 dejó una gran impronta en el subsiguiente debate, debido en parte a la reputación de Nordhaus y en parte al hecho de que la respuesta de Forrester [ref] no fue ampliamente conocida.” (p. 118)
396. William D. Nordhaus, Hendrik Houthakker and Robert Solow (1973) – The Allocation of Energy Resources – Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 3:529-576 – Yale University – http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/projects/bpea/1973%203/1973c_bpea_nordhaus_houthakker_solow.pdf
     “But we should not be haunted by the specter of the affluent society grinding to a halt for lack of energy resources.”
397. William D. Nordhaus (1992) – Lethal Model 2: The Limits to Growth Revisited – Brookings Papers on Economic Activity – Yale University – http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/projects/bpea/1992%202/1992b_bpea_nordhaus_stavins_weitzman.pdf
     “The dynamic behavior of the enormously complicated LTG was not fully understood (or even understandable) by anyone, either authors or critics.” (p. 15)
398. Ugo Bardi (2011) – The Limits to Growth Revisited – Springer – Dipartimento di Chimica, Università di Firenze; ASPO – Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, Italian section – ISBN 978-1-4419-9416-5 – 119 Págs.
     “As for the first category, we can take as an example the accusation of “lack of humility,” made against Forrester. The gist of this accusation is that carrying world simulations all the way to the end of the twenty-first century is much too ambitious to make sense.”
399. Paul Krugman (2008) – Limits to Growth and Related Stuff – The New York Times, 22/04/2008 – http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/22/limits-to-growth-and-related-stuff/comment-page-1/
     “The essential story there was one of hard-science arrogance: Forrester, an eminent professor of engineering, decided to try his hand at economics, and basically said, “I’m going to do economics with equations!”
400. Paul Krugman – Slow Steaming and the Supposed Limits to Growth – New York Times, 07/10/2014 – http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/10/07/slow-steaming-and-the-supposed-limits-to-growth/
     “A few days ago Mark Buchanan at Bloomberg published a piece titled “Economists are blind to the limits of growth” making the standard hard-science argument. And I do mean standard; not only does he make the usual blithe claims about what economists never think about; even his title is almost exactly the same as the classic (in the sense of classically foolish) Jay Forrester book that my old mentor, Bill Nordhaus, demolished so effectively forty years ago.”
401. Paul Krugman – Slow Steaming and the Supposed Limits to Growth – New York Times, 07/10/2014 – http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/10/07/slow-steaming-and-the-supposed-limits-to-growth/
     “So what happens when you switch to slow steaming? Any one ship will carry less freight over the course of a year, because it can do fewer swings of the pendulum (although the number of trips won’t fall as much as the reduction in speed, because the time spent loading and unloading doesn’t change.) But you can still carry as much freight as before, simply by using more ships — that is, by supplying more labor and capital. If you do that, output — the number of tons shipped — hasn’t changed; but fuel consumption has fallen. And of course by using still more ships, you can combine higher output with less fuel consumption. ”
402. Ugo Bardi – Paul Krugman and The Tortoise: Why the Limits to Growth Are Real – Common Dreams, 07/11/2014 – http://www.commondreams.org/views/2014/11/07/paul-krugman-and-tortoise-why-limits-growth-are-real
     “So, Krugman’s argument may to be indeed a paradox in the sense that the attempt to increase the GDP by saving energy may well backfire; creating the opposite effect … switching from a limited mineral resource (fossil fuels) to other limited mineral resources (metals and others) merely amounts to shifting the problem to one sector of the economy to another. Energy saving is a good thing, but we don’t have to take it as the miracle that keeps GDP growing forever.”
403. Richard Heinberg – Paul Krugman and the Limits of Hubris – Post Carbon Institute, 10/10/2014 – http://www.postcarbon.org/paul-krugman-and-the-limits-of-hubris/
     “When we look at many (not all) efficiency gains this way—that is, from a systems perspective—much of the advantage tends to disappear.”
404. Richard Heinberg (2014) – Paul Krugman y los límites de la arrogancia – Última Llamada, 01/11/2014 – http://ultimallamadamanifiesto.wordpress.com/2014/11/01/paul-krugman-vs-richard-heinberg-la-desmesura-sentando-catedra/
     “Pero el Sr. Krugman no completa este razonamiento. Si está queriendo decir que no hay límites al crecimiento porque se puede hacer un uso más eficiente de la energía, entonces lógicamente también debe sostener que la eficiencia energética puede mejorarse indefinidamente, al menos hasta el punto de que no haga falta energía para mover la economía (digo “al menos” porque, supuestamente, incluso entonces sería necesario seguir creciendo para probar que no existen límites). Y eso, como cualquier físico sabe, es pura fantasía.”
405. Ronald Bailey – Doom – Forbes, 16/10/1989 – Science editor
     “’Limits to Growth’ predicted that at 1972 rates of growth the world would run out of gold by 1981, mercury by 1985, tin by 1987, zinc by 1990, petroleum by 1992, copper, lead and natural gas by 1993.”
406. Graham M. Turner (2008) – A comparison of The Limits to Growth with 30 years of reality – Global Environmental Change 18:397- 411 doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.05.001 – CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems – http://graduateinstitute.ch/files/live/sites/iheid/files/sites/political_science/users/elena.gadjanova/public/Issues%20in%20Env%20Politics%202010/Turner%202008.pdf
     “Some critiques, such as that in Lomborg (2001) and McCabe (1998), specifically identify a table (number 4) of non-renewable natural resources and inappropriately select data (from column 5) that fits their criticism while ignoring other data (column 6) that illustrate extended resource lifetimes due to expanded reserves.”
407. Bjørn Lomborg (2012) – Environmental Alarmism, Then and Now – National Center for Policy Analysis, 12/07/2012 – http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_ID=22124
     “This alarmism, however, was clearly unfounded. For starters, much of the predictions of the club’s tome have failed to come to pass … Before 2012, they concluded, the world would exhaust supplies of aluminum, copper, gold, lead, mercury, natural gas, oil, silver, tin, tungsten and zinc — 12 of the 19 resources they examined.”
408. Bjorn Lomborg – Environmental Alarmism, Then and Now: The Club of Rome’s Problem — and Ours – Foreign Affairs, 01/07/2012 – http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137681/bjorn-lomborg/environmental-alarmism-then-and-now
     “Assuming exponentially increasing demand, The Limits to Growth calculated how soon after 1970 various resources would be exhausted. Their conclusion was that before 2012, the world would run out of aluminum, copper, gold, lead, mercury, molybdenum, natural gas, oil, silver, tin, tungsten, and zinc—12of the 19 substances they looked at. They were simply and spectacularly wrong.”
409. Ronald Bailey – Doom – Forbes, 16/10/1989 – Science editor
     “Limits to Growth” predicted that at 1972 rates of growth the world would run out of gold by 1981, mercury by 1985, tin by 1987, zinc by 1990, petroleum by 1992, copper, lead and natural gas by 1993.”
410. Bjorn Lomborg and Olivier Rubin (2002) – The dustbin of history: limits to growth’ – Foreign Policy 133:42-44 – http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2002/11/01/the_dustbin_of_history_limits_to_growth
     “According to Darwinism, species that adapt to their environment thrive; those that fail to evolve face extinction. The same is true for ideas.”
411. George J. W. Goodman (1987) – Debt, the Grim Reaper – The New York Times, 12/04/1987 – http://www.nytimes.com/1987/04/12/books/debt-the-grim-reaper.html
     “Ten years ago the Club of Rome – and a number of other economic prognosticators – predicted shortages of everything. Oil would go up to $200 a barrel and the planet would starve.”
412. Donnella Meadows, Jørgen Randers, Dennis Meadows (2004) – Los Límites del crecimiento: 30 años después – Galaxia Gutenberg – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – ISBN: 8481096016 – 514 Págs.
     “En 1972, el Club de Roma publicó Los Límites del Crecimiento, que ponía en tela de juicio la sostenibilidad del crecimiento de la economía y la población. Los Límites del Crecimiento calculaba que ahora mismo estaríamos asistiendo a un declive de la producción de alimentos, de la población, de la disponibilidad de energía y de la esperanza de vida. Ninguno de estos fenómenos han empezado siquiera a producirse, ni existe ninguna perspectiva inmediata de que vayan a hacerlo. Así que el club de Roma se equivocó. ExxonMobil” (p. 327)
413. Juan Rosell Lastortras (2007) – ¿Y después del petróleo qué? – Deusto – ISBN: 978-84-234-2588-4 – 414 Págs.
     “El prestigioso Club de Roma, formado por científicos, políticos e investigadores, a principios de la década de 1970 cometió el atrevimiento de pronosticar el final del petróleo hacia 1992.”
414. Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway (2010) – Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming – Bloomsbury New York, 27/10/2010 – Professor of History Science Studies Program University of California; National Aeronautics and Space Administration – http://climatecontroversies.ulb.ac.be/wp-content/uploads/slides/oreskes.pdf
     “In 1984, Singer wrote an essay for the Cornucopian book ‘The Resourceful Earth’, edited by Julian L. Simon and Herman Kahn … At the time of the book, Simon was a fellow of the Heritage Foundation … Singer’s position in his chapter ‘World demand for oil’ revealed a full-fledged Cornucopianism …” (p. 300n)
415. Michelle Goldberg (2006) – Kingdom Coming: The Rise of Christian Nationalism – W. W. Norton & Company – ISBN-13: 978-0393329766 – 253 Págs.
     “Phillips discovered Rushdoony through Frank Wakton, the former head of the Heritage Foundation, who gave him a Rushdoony tract arguing that socialized medicine is unbiblical. He and Rushdoony later became friends, and Phillips embraced Reconstructionism … For Phillips, the fight over judges is ultimately a fight over the right to impose biblical law.” (p. 165-167)
416. Julian L. Simon (1995) – The State of Humanity: Steadily Improving – Cato Institute, 09/1995 – Professor of Economics and Business Administration, University of Illinois + Cato Institute – http://www.cato.org/policy-report/septemberoctober-1995/state-humanity-steadily-improving
     “Technology exists now to produce in virtually inexhaustible quantities just about all the products made by nature… We have in our hands now — actually, in our libraries — the technology to feed, clothe, and supply energy to an ever-growing population for the next 7 billion years … Even if no new knowledge were ever gained after those advances, we would be able to go on increasing our population forever, while improving our standard of living and our control over our environment.”
417. Albert A. Barlett (1996) – The exponential function XI: The new flat earth society – The Physics Teacher 34:342-343 – University of Colorado – http://www.euroistruzione.it/images/Interregionale/RS2 – The New Flat Earth Society.pdf “The number given in Eq. (5) [1% increasing population for 7 million years, as (Simon 1995) suggests] is something like 30 kilo-orders of magnitude larger than the number of atoms estimated to be in the known universe! This of course assumes that the universe, like the Earth, is spherical, which could hardly be correct if the Earth is flat and is of infinite lateral extent. A related question comes to mind: If world population growth continues at a rate of 1% per year, how long would it take for the population to grow until the num- ber of people was equal to this estimate of the number of atoms in the known universe? … 17.000 years.”
418. Gerald O. Barney (1980) – Global 2000 Report to the President of the United States: The Summary Report ‐ With Environment Projections and the Government’s Global Model v. 1: Entering the 21st Century – Pergamon Press – http://www.geraldbarney.com/Global_2000_Report/G2000-Eng-Pergamon/G000-PergamonPreface.pdf
     “The Global Report is not a prediction of doom. It is, however, a projection of world conditions that could develop by the end of this century if very real problems are ignored.”
419. E. Evenson and D. Gollin (2003) – Assessing the Impact of the Green Revolution, 1960 to 2000 – Science 300:758-762 doi:10.1126/science.1078710 – 02/05/2003 – Department of Economics, Yale University – 2 autores
     “But if the past offers guidance for the future, a strong public sector role will continue to be needed. In most crops and most regions of the developing world, private sector agricultural research is not likely to generate large impacts on production or social welfare.”
420. Katherine A. Kiel et al (2009) – Luck or skill? An examination of the Ehrlich–Simon bet – Ecological Economics 69:1365–1367 doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.03.007 – Department of Economics, College of the Holy Cross – http://college.holycross.edu/RePEc/hcx/Kiel-Matheson_EhrlichSimon.pdf
     “Contrary to the popular perception, however, an examination of the price history of the identical bundle of goods from 1900-2007 shows that Ehrlich and not Simon would have won a majority of the bets over the past century and would have done so by a wide margin.”
421. Chip Berlet and Matthew N. Lyons (2000) – Right-Wing Populism in America: Too Close for Comfort – The Public Eye Magazine – http://www.publiceye.org/larouche/synthesis.html
     “Unlike some neonazis, the LaRouchites vilified the environmental movement and nature romanticism while praising high-technology projects such as nuclear power … Their attacks on the Club of Rome, an ecology and population control group, echoed a 1974 article in the rightist American Mercury entitled “The Curious Club of Rome,” which asked whether the group was “merely a bunch of boring pedants and doom-sayers, or is it a sinister cabal aiming for world control?”
422. Milton Friedman (1953) – Essays in Positive Economics Part I – The Methodology of Positive Economics – University of Chicago Press – University of Chicago – http://dieoff.org/_Economics/TheMethodologyOfPositiveEconomics.htm
     “In short, positive economics is, or can be, an “objective” science, in precisely the same sense as any of the physical sciences … Viewed as a body of substantive hypotheses, theory is to be judged by its predictive power for the class of phenomena which it is intended to ‘explain.’  Only factual evidence can show whether it is ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ or, better, tentatively ‘accepted’ as valid or ‘rejected.’  As I shall argue at greater length below, the only relevant test of the validity of a hypothesis is comparison of its predictions with experience.”
423. Ugo Bardi (2011) – Los límites del crecimiento retomados – Los Libros de la Catarata – Universidad de Florencia – ISBN-13: 978-8483198711 – 232 Págs.
     “El premio Nobel Milton Friedman usó el término ‘estúpidas proyecciones’ en una entrevista publicada por Carla Ravaioli en 1995 en su libro Economists and the Environment (p. 33) [ref].” (p. 172-173)
424. Plenty of gloom – The Economist, 20/12/1997 – http://www.economist.com/node/455855
     “Forecasters of scarcity and doom are not only invariably wrong; they think that being wrong proves them right … Greenhouse warming was originally going to be uncontrolled. Then it was going to be 2.5–4 degrees in a century. Then it became 1.5–3 degrees (according to the United Nations).”
425. Amílcar O. Herrera (1977) – Catástrofe o Nueva Sociedad? Modelo Mundial Latinoamericano – Centro Internacional de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo, 1977 – Fundación Bariloche – http://www.idrc.ca/EN/Resources/Publications/openebooks/144-2/index.html
426. Ugo Bardi (2011) – Los límites del crecimiento retomados – Los Libros de la Catarata – Universidad de Florencia – ISBN-13: 978-8483198711 – 232 Págs.
     “Entre estos estudios, por ejemplo, en 1977, Amílcar Herrera, de la Fundación Bariloche de Argentina, utilizó la dinámica de sistemas para estudiar el futuro de la economía Latinoamericana [ref]. Este trabajo pretendía refutar las predicciones de colapso del estudio de LDC, pero a pesar de algunos supuestos de entrada muy optimistas no fue posible desarrollar escenarios convincentes de este tipo”
427. Robert Golub and Joe Townsend (1977) – Malthus, Multinationals and the Club of Rome – Social Studies of Science 7:201-222 – Science Policy Research Unit; Department of Physics, University of Sussex
     “We argue that it is the second-rank MNCs [multinational corporations], whose domestic governments are too weak to provide adequate support, who were most sensitive to the threats posed by these instabilities; and that it was the convergence of these fears with those of the ‘neo-Malthusians’ which led to the founding of the Club of Rome, the publication of Limits of Growth, and the almost universal acceptance of its thesis by the mass media.”
428. Mauricio Schoijet (1999) – Limits to Growth and the Rise of Catastrophism – Environmental History 4:515-530 doi:10.2307/3985399 Departamento El Hombre y su Ambiente, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana de Xochimilco
     “The accusations against FM that they represented in some way the interests of the rich … was a form of demagoguery produced by the propaganda apparatuses of some of the most polluting and dangerous insudtries. ”
429. Ugo Bardi – A corollary to Godwin’s law: the “law of genocidal intentions” – The frog that jumped out, 26/03/2014 – http://thefrogthatjumpedout.blogspot.it/2014/03/a-corollary-to-godwins-law-law-of.html
     “The sponsors of the study, the Club of Rome were later accused of being an evil organization dedicated to the extermination of most of the world’s population. They were even accused to have created the AIDS virus specifically for this purpose.”
430. James Delingpole – Climate Change’: there just aren’t enough bullets – The Telegraph, 22/12/2010 – James Delingpole is a writer, journalist and broadcaster who is right about everything – http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100069327/climate-change-there-just-arent-enough-bullets/
     “Always remember this: the Warmist faith so fervently held and promulgated by the Met Office is exactly the same faith so passionately, unswervingly followed by David Cameron, Chris Huhne, Greg Barker, the Coalition’s energy spokesman in the Lords Lord Marland, and all but five members of the last parliament. And also by … Truly there just aren’t enough bullets! ”
431. Michael E. Mann (2012) – The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines – Columbia University Press – Penn State Earth System Science Center – ISBN-13: 978-0231152549 – 384 Págs.
     “Marc Morano’s comment in March 2010 that climate scientists ‘desserve to be publicly flogged’ seemed to set the tone [n]. That was just a few years after Fox’s Glenn Beck had followed a litany of bogus allegations about the IPCC with the suggestion that climate scientists commit suicide [n.ref]. Earlier, right-wing provocateur Andrew Breitbart had ‘twitted’: ‘Capital punishment for Dr. James Hansen. Climategate is high treason,’ [n.ref] The use of such vitriol and invective might be viewed as an effort to stoke the fires of irrationality, hate, and violence among sympathizers in the general population.” (p. 225)
432. Ugo Bardi – Cassandra’s curse: how “The Limits to Growth” was demonized – The Oil Drum Europe – 09/03/2014 – http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3551
     “The criticism could also become aggressive and I can cite at least one internet page where you can read that the autores of the LTG book should be killed, cut to pieces, and their organs sent to organ banks.”
433. Mauricio Schoijet (1999) – Limits to Growth and the Rise of Catastrophism – Environmental History 4:515-530 doi:10.2307/3985399 Departamento El Hombre y su Ambiente, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana de Xochimilco
     “The Soviet autores E. Modrzhinskaia and V. Kosolapov published books on the subject. The formerled a team of the Academy of Sciences. All obstacles to material progress, she argued, were purely social. She minimized in a systematic way the difficulties of new technologies and suggested short terms for their practical application. Some Western Marxists shared similar positions.”
434. Ugo Bardi – Cassandra’s curse: how “The Limits to Growth” was demonized – The Oil Drum Europe, 09/03/2014 – http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3551
     “In 1997, the Italian economist Giorgio Nebbia, noted that the reaction against the LTG study had arrived from at least four different fronts … And this by Nebbia is a clearly incomplete list; forgetting religious fundamentalists, the political right, the believers in infinite growth, politicians seeking for easy solutions to all problems and many others.”
435. Curtis A. Moore (2008) – The Bloodless Coup: Corporations and the Rich Buy Their Way to Control – Basel Action Network – Former counsel to the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works from 1978 to 1989 – http://curtismoore.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/the-bloodless-coup.pdf
     “In the summer of 1971, a relatively little known Richmond, Virginia lawyer wrote a memorandum that would alter history. It set in motion a series of events that would culminate in a tectonic shift in American policies and attitudes. In the near term, these events would enable the Republican Party to place itself in a position of political dominance and to exercise that power on behalf of its benefactors, the wealthy and, most especially, the corporations that they own and control.”
436. William E. Simon (1978) – A Time for Truth – McGraw-Hill New York – ISBN: 9780070573789 – 248 Págs.
     “The only party with a philosophical heritage which might permit it to be the Liberty Party in the United States is the Republican Party….The only thing that can save the Republican Party, in fact, is a counterintelligensia. Without such a reservoir of antiauthoritarian scholarship on which to draw, it is destined to remain the Stupid Party and to die. It may even deserve to die.”
437. Curtis A. Moore (2008) – The Bloodless Coup: Corporations and the Rich Buy Their Way to Control – Basel Action Network – Former counsel to the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works from 1978 to 1989 – http://curtismoore.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/the-bloodless-coup.pdf
     “In the summer of 1971, a relatively little known Richmond, Virginia lawyer wrote a memorandum that would alter history. It set in motion a series of events that would culminate in a tectonic shift in American policies and attitudes.”
438. David Vogel (1989) – Fluctuating Fortunes: The Political Power of Business in America – Beard Books – ISBN-13: 978-1587981692 – 352 Págs.
     “’It took business about seven years to rediscover how to win in Washington.’ Once they realized how the political scene had changed, corporations began to adopt the strategies that public-interest activists had used so effectively against them—grassroots organizing and coalition building, telephone and letter writing campaigns, using the media, research reports and testifying at hearings, “to maximize political influence.”
439. Aaron Day – Support the moral foundations of freedom – The Atlas Society, visitado en 07/01/2013, texto actualmente no disponible – CEO
     “The Atlas Society’s primary focus remains promoting the moral foundations of freedom. In 2012, we had a record year for every key operating metric. More importantly, we have formed partnerships with Students for Liberty, Young Americans for Liberty, and The Leadership Institute that will allow us to effectively spread our positive message to the next generation. These groups represent tens of thousands of liberty-minded students and The Atlas Society is poised to provide the moral foundation for these groups and others.”
440. Christian E. Weller and Laura Singleton (2006) – Peddling reform: the role of think tanks in shaping the neoliberal policy agenda for the World Bank and International Monetary Fund – En: Neoliberal Hegemony: a global critique – Dieter Plehwe Bernhard Walpen and Gisela Neunhöffer (2006) – Senior economist at the Center for American Progress + Research associate at the Economic Policy Institute; University of WISCONSIN+ Economic Policy Institute
     “One of the reasons the neoliberal network has been so successful is that it understands government policy is based upon, and has subsequently developed, ‘a conveyer belt of thinkers, academics, and activists [ref] to promote their agenda. Thus, foundations give money to a variety of sources to promote its neoliberal philosophies … [to those] who form the next generation of conservative researchers.”
441. Jean M. Twenge et al (2012) – Generational Differences in Young Adults’ Life Goals, Concern for Others, and Civic Orientation, 1966–2009 – Journal of Personality and Social Psychology doi10.1037/a0027408 – 3 autores
     “The results generally support the ‘Generation Me’ view of generational differences rather than the “Generation We” or no change views.”
442. Rachel Carson (1962) – La Primavera Silenciosa –
     “En la mitología griega, la hechicera Medea, encolerizada por verse suplantada por una rival en el afecto de su marido Jasón, obsequió a la nueva novia con una túnica que poseía propiedades mágicas. El que se la pusiera sufría en el acto una muerte violenta. Esta muerte por medios indirectos encuentra ahora su contrapartida en lo que se conoce por ‘insecticidas sistemáticos’.”
443. Juan de Ortega – Ultimátum a la Tierra (IV): Comentarios a las respuestas – Politikon, 23/07/2014 – http://politikon.es/2014/07/23/ultimatum-la-tierra-iv-comentarios-las-respuestas/
444. Mauricio Schoijet (1999) – Limits to Growth and the Rise of Catastrophism – Environmental History 4:515-530 doi:10.2307/3985399 – Departamento El Hombre y su Ambiente, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana de Xochimilco
     “S. Fred Singer, who claimed that there were unlimited energy supplies and that large-scale desalination of sea water was possible, led the charge.”
445. Bruno Estrada – Los límites del decrecimiento – El Diario, 07/11/2014 – Director de Estudios de la Fundación 1º de mayo – http://www.eldiario.es/zonacritica/limites-decrecimiento_6_322027825.html
     “Sin embargo, la segunda ley de la termodinámica no puede considerarse un corset rígido sobre el crecimiento económico, ya que la condición para que se cumpla dicha ley es que no tiene que haber fuentes externas de energía. En la tierra tenemos un flujo constantemente renovado de energía solar directa que la actividad económica podría usarlo, con la tecnología adecuada, sin agotarlo ni destruirlo.”
446. Pedro A. Prieto – Crecer o no crecer, esta es la cuestión – Última Llamada, 12/11/2014 – http://ultimallamadamanifiesto.wordpress.com/2014/11/12/pedro-prieto-crecer-o-no-crecer-esta-es-la-cuestion/
     “Por tanto, los límites al crecimiento de nuestra especie y sus formas de vida actuales, no creo que sean una tesis, ni siquiera una ideología; son más bien una constatación matemática de un límite simple.”
447. Marga Mediavilla – El sentido común de los límites del crecimiento – Última Llamada – 20/11/2014 – http://ultimallamadamanifiesto.wordpress.com/2014/11/20/marga-mediavilla-el-sentido-comun-de-los-limites-del-crecimiento/
     “Desde el punto de vista material, la Tierra es un sistema cerrado, ya que los elementos contenidos en la corteza terrestre apenas se renuevan. Además, sólo en unos determinados lugares se encuentran concentrados (minas) y, debido a esta segunda ley, tienden a dispersarse.”
448. Bruno Estrada – Los límites del decrecimiento – El Diario, 07/11/2014 – Director de Estudios de la Fundación 1º de mayo – http://www.eldiario.es/zonacritica/limites-decrecimiento_6_322027825.html
     “Serge Latouche … [N]o ofrece ni un solo dato de costes de generación actualizados, ni estimación de evolución futura de la tecnología de captación de energía solar pero asegura inapelablemente que “es acertado considerar a la biosfera como un sistema casi cerrado y afirmar que el crecimiento infinito es incompatible con un planeta finito”. Estos son los límites del decrecimiento: considerar a la biosfera como un sistema casi cerrado… La ideología, una vez más se impone a un análisis certero de la realidad.”
449. Jan Tinbergen (1976) – Reshaping International Order: A Report to the Club of Rome – New York: E.P. Dutton – Professor Emeritus, University of Rotterdam – ISBN-13: 978-0525043409 – http://www.clubofrome.org/?p=1174
     “Unlike the two earlier reports to the Club of Rome, this one emphasizes development, distribution and improved welfare that will require a good deal of economic growth.”
450. Ugo Bardi (2011) – The Limits to Growth Revisited – Springer – Dipartimento di Chimica, Università di Firenze; ASPO – Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, Italian section – ISBN 978-1-4419-9416-5 – 119 Págs.
     “Another study sponsored by the Club of Rome was performed by the Dutch economist and Nobel Prize winner Jan Tinbergen, whose work was titled, “RIO, Reshaping the International Order” (1977). However, this study emphasized economic growth rather than limits and, eventually, the Club of Rome withdrew its support of it.”
451. Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker, Amory B. Lovins y L. Hunter Lovins (1997) – Factor 4 : duplicar el bienestar con la mitad de los recursos naturales : informe al club de Roma – Círculo de lectores – ISBN: 8422664054 – 429 Págs.
452. Ronald Bailey (1993) – Eco-Scam: The False Prophets of the Ecological Apocalypse – St. Martin’s Press New York (citat a Peter Jaques 2006) – ISBN-13: 978-0312109714 – 228 Págs.
     “A cadre of professional ‘apocalypse abusers’ frightens the public with lurid scenarios of a devastated earth, overrun by starving hordes of humanity, raped of its precious non-renewable resources, poisoned by pesticides, pollution, and genetically engineered plagues, and baked by greenhouse warming. The new millenarians no longer expect a wrathful God to end the world in a rain of fire or overwhelming deluge (ref).”
453. Graham Readfearn – The Millions Behind Bjorn Lomborg’s Copenhagen Consensus Center US Think Tank – Desmogblog, 24/06/2014 – http://www.desmogblog.com/2014/06/25/millions-behind-bjorn-lomborg-copenhagen-consensus-center
     “Documents filed with the Internal Revenue Service show that by the end of 2011, some $2 million in donations had already hit CCC’s US bank account. Since registering as a US-based non-profit organisation in 2008, tax records show the Copenhagen Consensus Center has attracted $4.3 million in donations with almost half that coming in 2012, the most recent year where public records are available. Lomborg’s compensation for his CCC work that year was $775,000, according to the tax records. ”
454. Axel Leijonhufvud (2011) – Nature of an economy – Center for Economic Policy Analysis – UCLA and University of Trento – http://www.cepr.org/sites/default/files/policy_insights/PolicyInsight53.pdf
     “Accepting that the future cannot be known with certainty, even as a probability distribution, means recognising that we are dealing with an open system. And then the usefulness of many tools of the trade comes into doubt.”
455. Ugo Bardi (2014) – Mind Sized World Models – Sustainability 5:896-911 doi:10.3390/su5030896 – Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università di Firenze
     “The World3 model was built around five main stocks: (1) population, (2) non-renewable (mineral) resources, (3) renewable (agricultural) resources, (4) capital resources, and (5) pollution. ”
456. Joseph A. Tainter (1996) – Complexity, Problem Solving, and Sustainable Societies – En: Getting Down To Earth: Practical Applications of Ecological Economics, Island Press, 1996; ISBN 1-55963-503-7 – Rocky Mountain Research Station, United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service – http://dieoff.org/page134.htm
     “We have the the opportunity to become the first people in history to understand how a society’s problem-solving abilities change. To know that this is possible yet not to act upon it would be a great failure of the practical application of ecological economics.”
457. Jørgen Randers (2012) – The real message of the Limits to Growth: a plea for forward-looking global policy – Gaia-Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society 21:102-105 – Professor of climate strategy at the BI Norwegian Business School – http://brage.bibsys.no/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11250/93630/Randers_Gaia_2012.pdf
     “LtG’s unfortunate choice of words led to decades of unnecessary public controversy, because most readers interpreted the word “growth” as identical to economic growth or growth in GDP (gross domestic product), and argued against LtG’s message on this mistaken basis.”
458. Mathis Wackernagel and William E. Rees (1997) – Perceptual and structural barriers to investing in natural capital: economics from an ecological footprint perspective – Ecological Economics 20:3–24 doi:10.1016/S0921-8009(96)00077-8 – Universidad Anáhuac de Xalapa; School of Community and Regional Planning, University of British Columbia
     “This paper argues that perceptual distortions and prevailing economic rationality, far from encouraging investment in natural capital, actually accelerate the depletion of natural capital stocks.”
459. Williams E. Rees et al (1996) – Our Ecological Footprint: Reducing Human Impact on the Earth – New Society Publishers – ISBN-13: 978-0865713123 – 160 Págs.
460. Óscar Carpintero (2005) – El metabolismo de la economía española. Recursos naturales y huella ecológica (1955-2000) – Fundación César Manrique – https://es.scribd.com/doc/51906647/Carpintero-metabolismo-Espana
     “Se puede decir que fue el físico austriaco Leopold Pfaundler quien escribió uno de los primeros textos bien fundamentados sobre la capacidad de sustentación de la Tierra, en el que se interrogaba sobre la población máxima que podría vivir dentro de un territorio acotado.”
461. Jeroen C.J.M van den Bergh and Harmen Verbruggen (1999) – Spatial sustainability, trade and indicators: an evaluation of the ‘ecological footprint’ – Ecological Economics 129:61–72 doi:10.1016/S0921-8009(99)00032-4 – Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit –
     “Its concept and calculation procedure are criticised on a number of points, and it is concluded that the Ecological Footprint is not the comprehensive and transparent planning tool as is often assumed. “
462. Dennis Meadows – Club of Rome conference Bucharest 2012 – De(s)varia materia – 02/10/2012 – http://casdeiro.info/textos/index.php/2013/11/22/15-15-en-quince-anos-solo-nos-quedara-el-15-del-petroleo/
463. Jørgen Randers (2012) – 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years – Chelsea Green Publishing – Professor of Climate Strategy, BI Norwegian Business School; Sustainability Council, The Dow Chemical Company – ISBN-13: 978-1603584210 – 416 Págs. – http://www.2052.info/
     “I basically believe that we will see the same rate of technological and societal change over the next forty years as we have seen over the last forty years. That is because the drivers will be the same and the organization of global society is unlikely to change discontinuously. ” (p. 61)
464. Karl J. Åström and P.R. Kumar (2014) – Control: A perspective – Automatica 50:3–43 doi:10.1016/j.automatica.2013.10.012 – Department of Automatic Control, Lund University; Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering – http://www.smp.uq.edu.au/people/YoniNazarathy/Control4406_2014/resources/AstromKumarControlPerspective2014.pdf
     “Forrester’s original model consisting of four differential equations was expanded to about 1000. The book predicted that growth was limited by natural resources. It was controversial because of many unvalidated assumptions; however, more than 12 million copies were sold, boosted by the 1973 oil crisis. Its central contention though is currently of great topical importance with respect to global warming as well as other environmental and ecological matters. ”
465. Donnella Meadows, Jørgen Randers, Dennis Meadows (2004) – Los Límites del crecimiento: 30 años después – Galaxia Gutenberg – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – ISBN: 8481096016 – 514 Págs.
     “El progreso tecnológico en el modelo reducirá gradualmente la cantidad de recursos necesaria por unidad de producto industrial si todos los demás factores se mantienen constantes. Pero el modelo no permite que la industria fabrique bienes materiales a partir de la nada… Este modelo no se basa sólo en la tecnología o en el mercado; plantea que habrá interacciones graduales y efectivas entre ambos.” (p. 244)
466. Donnella Meadows, Jørgen Randers, Dennis Meadows (2004) – Los Límites del crecimiento: 30 años después – Galaxia Gutenberg – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – ISBN: 8481096016 – 514 Págs.
     “Para muchos economistas, la tecnología es un único exponente en alguna variante de la función de producción de Cobb-Douglas: funciona automáticamente, sin desfases, sin coste, carente de límites y sólo produce resultados deseables. ¡No es de extrañar que los economistas estén tan extasiados con su potencial para resolver los problemas humanos!”
467. Donnella Meadows, Jørgen Randers, Dennis Meadows (2004) – Los Límites del crecimiento: 30 años después – Galaxia Gutenberg – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – ISBN: 8481096016 – 514 Págs.
     “Una entidad física que crece sólo se desacelerará y después se detendrá acomodándose suavemente a sus límites (crecimiento en forma de S) si recibe señales precisas y oportunas que le indiquen dónde se halla con respecto a sus límites, siempre y cuando responda con rapidez y precisión a tales señales (p. 260) … Si una sociedad obtiene sus señales de la mera disponibilidad de existencias más que de su tasa de reposición, sin duda se extralimitará (p. 286) … El problema se agrava si la base del recurso es erosionable y se destruye durante la extralimitación (p. 35).”
468. Donnella Meadows, Jørgen Randers, Dennis Meadows (2004) – Los Límites del crecimiento: 30 años después – Galaxia Gutenberg – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – ISBN: 8481096016 – 514 Págs.
     “El resultado de la extralimitación y el colapso es un medio ambiente deteriorado para siempre y un nivel de vida material mucho más bajo del que habría sido posible si nunca hubiera sometido al medio ambiente a tensiones excesivas … A escala mundial, la extralimitación y el colapso podrían comportar la quiebra de los grandes ciclos de sostenimiento de la naturaleza que regulan el clima, purifican el aire, regeneran la biomasa, preserva la biodiversidad y convierten los residuos en nutrientes.” (p. 270,275)
469. Donnella Meadows, Jørgen Randers, Dennis Meadows (2004) – Los Límites del crecimiento: 30 años después – Galaxia Gutenberg – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – ISBN: 8481096016 – 514 Págs.
     “World3 contiene apenas unos pocos límites relacionados con las fuentes y sumideros del planeta. (El ‘mundo real’ comprende muchos más.) … En el ‘mundo real’ hay muchas otras clases de límites, incluidos los de gestión empresarial y de tipo social. Algunos de ellos están implícitos en las cifras de World3, pues los coeficientes de nuestro modelo proceden de la historia ‘real’ de los últimos cien años.” (p. 250-251)
470. U Thant (1969) – En: Donella H. Meadows et al (1972) – The Limits to Growth. A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project for the Predicament of Mankind – Abstract established by Eduard Pestel – Purdue University – Massachussetts Institute of Technology – http://web.ics.purdue.edu/~wggray/Teaching/His300/Illustrations/Limits-to-Growth.pdf
     “If such a global partnership Is not forged within the next decade, then I very much fear that the problems I have mentioned will have reached such staggering proportions that they will be beyond our capacity to control.”
471. Donnella Meadows, Jørgen Randers, Dennis Meadows (2004) – Los Límites del crecimiento: 30 años después – Galaxia Gutenberg – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – ISBN: 8481096016 – 514 Págs.
     “Pase lo que pase en el futuro, sabemos que las principales dimensiones de lo que ocurrirá se harán visibles en los próximos dos decenios. La economía mundial ya ha rebasado tanto los niveles sostenibles que la fantasía de un globo infinito tiene los días contados. Sabemos que el ajuste será una tarea ingente, que comportará una revolución tan profunda como la revolución agrícola o industrial.”
472. Naomi Klein (2014) – This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The Climate – Penguin Random House – ISBN 978-0-307-40199-1 – 566 Págs. – https://pdf.yt/d/Skb-ch_k7psDm90Q
     “And though some of the book’s projections have not held up over time – the authors underestimated, for instance, the capacity of profit incentives and innovative technologies to unlock new reserves of finite resources – Limits was right about the most important limit of all.” (p. 196)
473. Lester R. Brown (2009) – Plan B 4.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization – W.W. Norton & Company New York – Págs. – http://www.earth-policy.org/index.php?/book_bytes/2009/pb4ch01_ss4
     “In a 2002 study published by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, a team of scientists concluded that humanity’s collective demands first surpassed the earth’s regenerative capacity around 1980. As of 2009 global demands on natural systems exceed their sustainable yield capacity by nearly 30 percent. This means we are meeting current demands in part by consuming the earth’s natural assets, setting the stage for an eventual Ponzi-type collapse when these assets are depleted.”
474. Mathis Wackernagel et al (2002) – Tracking the ecological overshoot of the human economy – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 99:9266-9271 doi:10.1073/pnas.142033699 – Redefining Progress – 11 autores
     “Sustainability requires living within the regenerative capacity of the biosphere. In an attempt to measure the extent to which humanity satisfies this requirement, we use existing data to translate human demand on the environment into the area required for the production of food and other goods, together with the absorption of wastes … According to this preliminary and exploratory assessment, humanity’s load corresponded to 70% of the capacity of the global biosphere in 1961, and grew to 120% in 1999.”
475. Zhu Guangyao (2012) – China Ecological Footprint – World Wide Fund – China Ecological Civilization Research and Promotion Association – http://awsassets.panda.org/downloads/china_ecological_footprint_report_2012_small.pdf
     “Just as it is possible to withdraw money from a bank account more quickly than the interest that accrues, biocapacity can be reused more quickly than it regenerates. Eventually the resources – our natural capital, will be depleted just like running down reserves in a bank account.”
476. Madhusree Mukerjee (2012) – Apocalypse Soon: Has Civilization Passed the Environmental Point of No Return? – Scientific American, 23/05/2012 – http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/apocalypse-soon-has-civilization-passed-the-environmental-point-of-no-return/
     “Whereas in 1972 humans were using 85 percent of the regenerative capacity of the biosphere to support economic activities such as growing food, producing goods and assimilating pollutants, the figure is now at 150 percent—and growing.”
477. Mattew R. Simmons (2000) – Revisiting “The Limits of Growth”: Could the Club of Rome have been correct, after all? – Great Change, 01/11/2000 – http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/172.pdf
     “The members of the ‘Club or Rome’ were also not a mysterious, sinister, anonymous group of doomsayers. Rather, they were a group of 30 thoughtful, public spirited-intellects from ten different countries. The group included scientists, economists, educators, and industrialists. They met at the instigation of Dr. Aurelia Peccei, an Italian industrialist affiliated with Fiat and Olivetti.”
478. Graham M. Turner (2008) – A comparison of The Limits to Growth with 30 years of reality – Global Environmental Change 18:397- 411 doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.05.001 – CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems – http://graduateinstitute.ch/files/live/sites/iheid/files/sites/political_science/users/elena.gadjanova/public/Issues%20in%20Env%20Politics%202010/Turner%202008.pdf
     “The analysis shows that 30 years of historical data compares favourably with key features of a ‘business as usual’ scenario, which result in collapse of the global system midway through the 21st Century.”
479. P. van Vuuren and A. Fabe (2009) – Growing within Limits. A Report to the Global Assembly 2009 of the Club of Rome – Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) – http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/500201001.pdf
     “Since the publication of ‘The Limits to Growth’ for the Club of Rome in 1972, it has become increasingly clear that the current trends in the consumption of fossil fuel and other resources, use of land, and pressure on the Earth’s capacity to deal with pollution lead to serious environmental risks … These studies also show that should historic trends continue in the coming decades, then the world will run into an increasing range of environmental and social tensions (Figure S.1).”
480. Graham M. Turner (2008) – A comparison of The Limits to Growth with 30 years of reality – Global Environmental Change 18:397- 411 doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.05.001 – CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems – http://graduateinstitute.ch/files/live/sites/iheid/files/sites/political_science/users/elena.gadjanova/public/Issues%20in%20Env%20Politics%202010/Turner%202008.pdf
     “The levels of pollution calculated in the LtG scenarios near mid-century are broadly in keeping with respective scenarios of the IPCC and associated environmental impacts, though the LtG pollution levels are 1–2 decades in advance of the respective IPCC scenarios. More recent research … would bring the potential future CO2 levels into close agreement with the relevant LtG scenarios” (560ppm and ‘‘standard run’’, and 460ppm and ‘‘comprehensive technology’’).
481. David J. Murphy and Charles A. S. Hall (2012) – Energy return on investment, peak oil, and the end of economic growth – Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1219:52–72 doi:10.1111/j.1749-6632.2010.05940.x – College of Environmental Science and Forestry, State University of New York
     “From this we conclude that the economic growth of the past 40 years is unlikely to continue in the long term unless there is some remarkable change in how we manage our economy.”
482. Irene Scher and Jonathan G. Koomey (2011) – Is accurate forecasting of economic systems possible? – Climatic Change 104:473-479 doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9945-z – Yale University School of Forestry and Environmental Studies; Stanford University
     “Believers in an unbreakable link between energy use and GDP assigned the immutability of physical law to this historical relationship (just like Garrett does) but found their belief shattered by events.”
483. Danny Cullenward et al (2011) – Psychohistory revisited: fundamental issues in forecasting climate futures – Climatic Change 104:457-472 doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9995-2 – Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources (E-IPER), Stanford University – 5 autores
     “First, we suggest that there are compelling reasons to believe that the relationship between energy consumption and GDP is not primarily governed by thermodynamics…This view is supported by the fact that the global E/GDP ratio has been declining over the last 40 years.”
484. Timothy J. Garrett (2009) – Are there basic physical constraints on future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide? – Climatic Change 104:437-455 doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9717-9 – Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah – http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10584-009-9717-9
     “Specifically, the human system grows through a self-perpetuating feedback loop in which the consumption rate of primary energy resources stays tied to the historical accumulation of global economic production … through a time-independent factor of 9.7 ± 0.3 mW per inflation-adjusted 1990 US dollar … Viewed from this perspective, civilization evolves in a spontaneous feedback loop maintained only by energy consumption and incorporation of environmental matter.”
485. Lewis Mumford (1967) – El mito de la máquina – Pepitas de calabaza – ISBN-13: 978-8493767129 – 556 Págs.
     “En el mito sumerio del diluvio, el rey Ziusudra (homólogo de Noé) es recompensado por los dioses An y Enlil, no con un arco iris simbólico, sino concediéndole ‘vida eterna, como un dios’. El deseo de una vida ilimitada formaba parte de aquella general anulación de límites que había propiciado la concentración de poder por medio de la megamáquina. La debilidad humana y, por encima de todo, la debilidad que representa la mortalidad, se vio impugnada y desafiada… esta afirmación del poder absoluto era una confesión de inmadurez psicológica.” (p. 335)
486. Julian L. Simon and Herman Kahn (Eds.) (1984) – The Resourceful Earth: A Response to Global 2000 – Blackwell Publishing – The Heartland Institute – ISBN-13: 978-0631134671 – 596 Págs.
487. Horace Herring and Steve Sorrell (Eds.) (2008) – Energy Efficiency and Sustainable Consumption: The Rebound Effect – Palgrave Macmillan – Open University, UK; Sussex Energy Group at SPRU, Sussex University – ISBN-13: 978-0230525344 – 272 Págs.
488. Samuel Alexander (2014) – A Critique of Techno-Optimism: Efficiency without Sufficiency is Lost – Melbourne Sustainability Institute Working Paper – Post Carbon Pathways project – http://www.sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/files/mssi/PostCarbonPathways_WP1_Alexander_Critique-of-Techno-Optimism_2014.pdf
     “Direct rebounds are estimated to range generally in the vicinity of 10-30% (Sorrell, 2009: 33), meaning that typically 10-30% of the expected environmental benefits of efficiency gains are lost to increased consumption of the same resource. In some circumstances, direct rebounds can be 75% or higher (Chakravarty et al, 2013). Indirect rebounds are somewhat harder to measure, but are generally thought to be higher than direct rebounds, and estimates of macro-economic rebound range from 15%-350% (Dimitropoulos, 2007). The huge range here again points to differences in methodological assumptions.”
489. Frank Ackerman and Lisa Heinzerling (2004) – Priceless: on knowing the price of everything and the value of nothing – The New Press New York – Global Development and Environment Institute, Tufts University – ISBN 1-56584-850-0 – 277 Págs.
     “Pareto optimality could also be viewed as the most that can be said about society’s preferences without doing anything as distateful as asking the masses … As one of them said: … The student who wrote these words was Benito Mussolini … In the first year after he seized power, Mussolini made his beloved professor Pareto an honorary member of the Italian Senate.”
490. Jay Hanson – Economic Theory for Scientists and Engineers – Die Off, 28/10/2011 – http://dieoff.org/#economic_theory_for_scientists_and_engineers
     “When I use the term “market system,” it is not just the price mechanism but the entire system of regulation, qualification, credentials, reputations and clearing that surrounds that mechanism and makes it operate in a social context. When economists claim the market is “efficient,” they actually mean “the efficient distribution of benefits” — NOT “the efficient use of materials.” An “efficient” market is a “Pareto optimal” market:”
491. Mikael Höök (2014) – Depletion rate analysis of fields and regions: A methodological foundation – Fuel 121:95-108 doi:10.1016/j.fuel.2013.12.024 – Uppsala University, Global Energy Systems, Department of Earth Sciences
     “Confusion seems to surround the depletion rate methodology even though it is a simple concept once properly understood. This paper has hopefully helped to bring clarity and consistency while also establishing a rigorous mathematical framework. … The data presented in this study displays what kind of depletion rates one can find in practice and may expect from the future. Claims that future production will behave radically different (i.e. significantly higher depletion rates or levels, low decline rates, etc.) carries the burden of proof.”
492. Richard A. Kerr (2011) – Peak Oil Production May Already Be Here – Science 331:1510-1511 doi:10.1126/science.331.6024.1510 – Editor in Chief
     “Perhaps the most sobering outcome of a non-OPEC plateau might be reminding everyone that even planet-scale resources have their limits. And that when you are consuming them at close to 1000 gallons a second, the limits can catch you unaware. The next 5 years, assuming oil prices remain on the high side, should show who the realists are. ”
493. Mikael Höök et al (2009) – Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production – Energy Policy 37: 2262–2272 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.02.020 – Uppsala University, Global Energy Systems, Department of Physics and Astronomy – http://www.postpeakliving.com/files/shared/Hook-GOF_decline_Article.pdf – 3 autores “The most important contributors to the world’s total oil production are the giant oil fields. Using a comprehensive database of giant oil field production, the average decline rates of the world’s giant oil fields are estimated … Our conclusion is that the world faces an increasing oil supply challenge, as the decline in existing production is not only high now but will be increasing in the future.”
494. Chris Nelder and Gregor Macdonald – There Will Be Oil, But At What Price? – Harvard Business Review Blogs, 04/10/2011 – http://blogs.hbr.org/2011/10/there-will-be-oil-but-can-you/
     “As Shell, Chevron, Total, the IEA, and a host of other serious observers have openly declared since 2005, the age of cheap and easy oil has ended. The “oil” that’s left is progressively expensive, difficult, risky, marginal, and fraught with secondary effects like increasing carbon emissions, demand for water, and competition with food.”
495. No dispongo de este informe de pago, pero fue mencionado en el congreso de Barbastro
496. Mikael Höök et al (2009) – Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production – Energy Policy 37: 2262–2272 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.02.020 – Uppsala University, Global Energy Systems, Department of Physics and Astronomy – http://www.postpeakliving.com/files/shared/Hook-GOF_decline_Article.pdf – 3 autores
     “A recent analysis by Cambridge Energy Research Associates estimated that the weighted decline of production from all existing world oil fields was roughly 4.5% in 2006 (CERA, 2007), which is in line with the 4–6% range estimated by ExxonMobil (2004). However, Andrew Gould, CEO of Schlumberger, stated that an accurate average decline rate is hard to estimate, but an overall figure of 8% is not an unreasonable assumption (Schlumberger, 2005).”
497. Wang Jianliang et al (2013) – Chinese coal supply and future production outlooks – Energy 60:204-214 doi:10.1016/j.energy.2013.07.031 – Uppsala University, Global Energy Systems, Department of Earth Sciences + China University of Petroleum (Beijing), School of Business Administration – http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:649510/FULLTEXT01.pdf – 4 autores
     “In the end, it appears likely that Chinese coal production will reach a maximum before 2040, with expected peak year in 2024.”
498. Andrew Grant and Paul Spedding (2014) – Oil Sands: Fact Sheets – The Carbon Tracker Initiative – Carbon Tracker Initiative; Energy Transition Advisors – http://www.carbontracker.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Oil-Sands-FactSheets-Designed.pdf
     “The analysis still indicates that nine out of every ten barrels of potential oil sands production from discovery stage projects require over $95/bbl to provide a 15% IRR, a level we regard as necessary to reflect the risks associated with oil developments, (see accompanying note on methodology).”
499. David Hughes (2013) – Drill Baby Drill: Can Unconventional Fuels Usher in a New Era of Energy Abundance? – CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform – ISBN-13: 978-1482555233 – 178 Págs
500. David Hughes (2014) – Drilling Deeper: A Reality Check on U.S. Government Forecasts for a Lasting Tight Oil & Shale Gas Boom – Post Carbon Institute, 27/10/2014 – https://www.scribd.com/document_downloads/244062986?extension=pdf&from=embed&source=embed
     “This report finds that tight oil production from major plays will peak before 2020. Barring major new discoveries on the scale of the Bakken or Eagle Ford, production will be far below the EIA’s forecast by 2040.”
501. David Hughes (2013) – A reality check on the shale revolution – Nature 494:307–308 doi:10.1038/494307a – Post Carbon Institute
     “Much of the oil and gas produced comes from relatively small sweet spots within the fields. Overall well quality will decline as sweet spots become saturated with wells, requiring an ever-increasing number of wells to sustain production. Production will ultimately be limited by available drilling locations, and when they run out, production will fall at rates of 30–50% per year. This is projected to occur within 5 years for the Bakken and Eagle Ford tight-oil plays.”
502. Richard Heinberg and David Fridley (2010) – The end of cheap coal – Nature 468:367-369 doi:10.1038/468367a – Post-Carbon Institute
     “We believe that it is unlikely that world energy supplies can continue to meet projected demand beyond 2020. Therefore, new limits on energy consumption will be essential in all sectors of society — including agriculture, transportation and manufacturing — and will be imposed by energy prices and shortages if they are not achieved through planning and policy.”
503. Antonio Turiel – El ocaso del petróleo: Edición de 2014 – The Oil Crash, 18/12/2014 – http://crashoil.blogspot.com.es/2014/12/el-ocaso-del-petroleo-edicion-de-2014.html
     “Dos son las razones por la que el escenario de 2014 es sensiblemente peor al escenario de 2012, a pesar de que en las gráficas anteriores el de 2014 parecía ligeramente mejor al de 2012. La primera es que en 2012 asumíamos una tasa de declive anual para los campos actualmente en producción del 5%; sin embargo, ahora sabemos que esta tasa es del 6% y con tendencia a seguir empeorando con el tiempo (las grandes compañías multinacionales reportan una tasa de declive medio del 8% anual para sus campos maduros). La otra razón es que en el WEO 2014 se le asigna una evolución muy extraña al petróleo de los campos aún por desarrollar, que explota con toda su intensidad hacia el final del período.”
504. Óscar Carpintero (2007) – Pautas de consumo, desmaterialización y nueva economía: entre la realidad y el deseo – Centre de Cultura Contemporània de Barcelona – http://www.cccb.org/rcs_gene/carpintero.pdf
     “En nuestro país, hemos pasado de requerir 2.307 m2/hab. en 1955 a exigir 3.078 m2/hab. en 1995, es decir, un crecimiento del 33%.”
505. Graham Turner and Cathy Alexander – Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we’re nearing collapse – The Guardian, 02/09/2014 – http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/limits-to-growth-was-right-new-research-shows-were-nearing-collapse
506. Mikael Höök et al (2009) – The evolution of giant oil field production behaviour – Natural Resources Research 18:39-56 doi:10.1007/s11053-009-9087-z – Global Energy Systems, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala University – 4 autores
     “The giant oil fields of the world are only a small fraction of the total number of fields, but their importance is huge. Over 50% of the world’s oil production came from giants by 2005 and more than half of the world’s ultimate reserves are found in giants.”
507. Jessica Lambert et al (2012) – EROI of Global Energy Resources: Preliminary Status and Trends – Robotics Caucus – State University of New York, College of Environmental Science and Forestry – http://www.roboticscaucus.org/ENERGYPOLICYCMTEMTGS/Nov2012AGENDA/documents/DFID_Report1_2012_11_04-2.pdf – 5 autores
     “We believe that most published EROI values, including those we derive here, appear higher (i.e. more favorable) than they might be had better and/or more complete information been available at the time of publication. ”
508. David Murphy (2010) – New Perspectives on the Energy Return on (Energy) Investment (EROI) of Corn Ethanol: Part 2 of 2 – The Oil Drum – College of Environmental Science and Forestry, State University of New York – http://netenergy.theoildrum.com/pdf/theoildrum_6761.pdf
     “Our results indicate that the EROI of corn ethanol is statistically inseparable from one energy unit returned per energy unit invested, and it is likely that much of our ethanol production is acting as an energy sink, requiring more energy for production than that contained in the ethanol product. This conclusion was confirmed in our spatial analysis, where the average EROIRG was 0.06 lower than the average calculated from the literature.”
509. Carey W. King and Charles A.S. Hall (2011) – Relating Financial and Energy Return on Investment – Sustainability 3:1810-1832 doi:10.3390/su3101810 – Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin; Programs in Environmental and Forest Biology, Environmental Science and Environmental Studies, State University of New York-College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse
     “Our analyses show that EROI and the price of energy are inherently inversely related such that as EROI decreases for depleting fossil fuel production, the corresponding energy prices increase dramatically. Using energy and financial data for the oil and gas production sector, we demonstrate that the equations sufficiently describe the fundamental trends between profit, price, and EROI.”
510. Jean Laherrère – Comments on BP Statistical Review 2012 – The Oil Drum, 13/08/2014 – Exdirector de exploración de Total
     “These should be reported separately, as it is done in Canada and as it was in BP’s 2011 report and before; using different definitions for oil supply and oil consumption; using a different definition for oil reserves by including oilsands in the “total world” item, when it was not in previous years editions.”
511. Donnella Meadows, Jørgen Randers, Dennis Meadows (2004) – Los Límites del crecimiento: 30 años después – Galaxia Gutenberg – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – ISBN: 8481096016 – 514 Págs.
     “A medida que se consumen los recursos, se supone que se deteriora la calidad de las reservas remanentes; además se supone que los yacimientos se descubren a mayor profundidad y se explotan cada vez más lejos de los lugares de uso. Esto significa que se precisará más capital y energía para extraer, refinar y transportar una tonelada de cobre o un barril de petróleo del subsuelo (p. 244)… A medida que los recursos no renovables resultan más difíciles de obtener … el capital se destina a producir más. Debido a ello, queda menos producto industrial para invertir en el mantenimiento de la elevada producción agrícola y del ulterior crecimiento industrial. Finalmente, alrededor de 2020, la inversión en capital industrial ya no contrarresta la amortización [física]. (p. 274,275)”
512. Carlos de Castro et al (2009) – The role of non conventional oil in the attenuation of peak oil – Energy Policy 37:1825–1833 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.01.022 – Applied Physics, Campus Miguel Delibes, University of Valladolid – 3 autores
     “The results show that, even under some hypotheses that we consider optimistic, the attenuation of the peak oil decline requires more than 10% of sustained growth of non conventional oil production over at least the next two decades.”
513. Joshua M. Pearce (2008) – Thermodynamic limitations to nuclear energy deployment as a greenhouse gas mitigation technology – International Journal on Nuclear Governance Economy and Ecology 2:113-130 doi:10.1504/IJNGEE.2008.017358 – Clarion University of Pennsylvania – http://me.queensu.ca/People/Pearce/files/as15.pdf
     “To both replace fossil-fuel-energy use and meet the future energy demands, nuclear energy production would have to increase by 10.5% per year from 2010 to 2050. This large growth rate creates a cannibalistic effect, where nuclear energy must be used to supply the energy for future nuclear power plants … The results of this study demand modesty in claims of ‘emission-free nuclear energy’ as a panacea for global climate destabilization.”
514. Marcel Coderch i Collel (2010) – Are we Ready for a Second Nuclear Era? – Advances in Energy Studies, 20/10/2010 – Comisión del Mercado de las Telecomunicaciones, Gobierno de España – http://www.societalmetabolism.org/aes2010/Proceeds/DIGITAL%20PROCEEDINGS_files/PAPERS/Invited_Marcel_Coderch_Abstract.pdf
     “In 1981, the Institute for Energy Analysis, a division of the Oak Ridge Associated Universities, obtained a grant from the Mellon Foundation to investigate technical approaches that might restore the confidence in nuclear power that had been shattered by the TMI accident … they suggest that the so called Nuclear Renaissance is unlikely to succeed, because most of the problems then identified are still waiting for real, not paper solutions, as Weinberg liked to say.”
515. Refrigeració nuclears
516. Antonio Turiel – World Energy Outlook 2014: ¿Peak everything? – The Oil Crash, 21/11/2014 – Institut de Ciències del Mar, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas – http://crashoil.blogspot.com.es/2014/11/world-energy-outlook-2014-peak.html
     “Pero lo que resulta ya chocante hasta el extremo es el abierto reconocimiento de que con las minas de uranio existentes y con el uranio almacenado de décadas anteriores (reservas secundarias, en la jerga del sector), asumiendo además que todas las minas actualmente proyectadas se van a ejecutar a tiempo, va a faltar uranio a partir de 2020 y hacia 2040 no se podrá cubrir todo la demanda sino algo menos del 60% (faltarían unas 45.000 toneladas de uranio natural equivalente sobre unas 105.000 que se demandarían). Esto es, ni más ni menos, que el pico del uranio. ”
517. David Fleming (2007) – The Lean Guide to Nuclear Energy: A Life-Cycle in Trouble – The Lean Economy Connection – http://www.theleaneconomyconnection.net/nuclear/Nuclear.pdf
     “1. The world’s endowment of uranium ore is now so depleted that the nuclear industry will never, from its own resources, be able to generate the energy it needs to clear up its own backlog of waste … Shortages of uranium – and the lack of realistic alternatives – leading to interruptions in supply, can be expected to start in the middle years of the decade 2010-2019, and to deepen thereafter. ”
518. Michael Dittmar (2013) – The end of cheap uranium – Science of The Total Environment 461-462:792–798 doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.04.035 – Institute of Particle Physics, ETH Zurich
     “Using this model for all larger existing and planned uranium mines up to 2030, a global uranium mining peak of at most 58 ± 4 ktons around the year 2015 is obtained. Thereafter we predict that uranium mine production will decline to at most 54 ± 5 ktons by 2025 and, with the decline steepening, to at most 41 ± 5 ktons around 2030. This amount will not be sufficient to fuel the existing and planned nuclear power plants during the next 10–20 years.”
519. M. Miller et al (2011) – Jet stream wind power as a renewable energy resource: little power, big impacts – Earth System Dynamics Discussions 2:435-465 doi:10.5194/esdd-2-435-2011 – Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry – 3 autores
     “We conclude that jet stream wind power does not have the potential to become a significant source of renewable energy.”
520. Peter Viebahn et al (2014) – Critical Resources and Material Flows during the Transformation of the German Energy Supply System – Wuppertal Institute – http://wupperinst.org/uploads/tx_wupperinst/KRESSE_Endbericht_Summary.pdf – 10 autores
     “In this connection, the availability of rare earth elements, such as indium, gallium, lanthanum and neodymium, and other raw materials that play a significant role, such as nickel and vanadium, is of particular interest.”
521. Carlos de Castro Carranza – La tecnología y el tecno-optimismo ¿nos hace estúpidos? – Grupo de Energía y Dinámica de Sistemas, 15/12/2014 – http://www.eis.uva.es/energiasostenible/?p=2655
     “A la vuelta de vacaciones leí un artículo de Jacobson sobre que podíamos obtener unos 72 TW eléctricos de los continentes y quizás otros 8 o 10 de zonas costeras. Eso suponía interactuar con unos 200 TW. Mi buena memoria para los números físicos acudió rauda: todos los vientos del mundo en toda la atmósfera disipan 1000 TW. Imposible captar y transformar 100 TW en electricidad con aparatitos de 100 metros de altura en una atmósfera de 10.000 m. Simple y directo.”
522. Carlos de Castro et al (2011) – Global wind power potential: Physical and technological limits – Energy Policy 39:6677-6682 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.06.027 – Applied Physics, Campus Miguel Delibes, University of Valladolid – 4 autores
     “The results give roughly 1 TW for the top limit of the future electrical potential of wind energy. This value is much lower than previous estimates and even lower than economic and realizable potentials published for the mid-century.”
523. Carlos de Castro et al (2012) – Global solar electric power potential: technical and ecological limits – Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 28:824-835 – Applied Physics, Campus Miguel Delibes, University of Valladolid – http://www.eis.uva.es/energiasostenible/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/solar-energy-draft.pdf – 4 authors
     “Although some uncertainties cannot be avoided, our estimations for the global potential of solar electrical power are 1,75-4,5 TWe, which implies a hard techno-ecological of solar power potential, much lesser than other assessments.”
524. Carlos de Castro Carranza – Sueños tecnológicos contra la pared de la realidad: el caso de la energía solar eléctrica – Grupo de Energía y Dinámica de Sistemas, 23/12/2013 – http://www.eis.uva.es/energiasostenible/?p=1897
     “Global solar electric potential: A review of their technical and sustainable limits. Nuestro primer intento de publicarla fue en Energy Policy (donde publicamos los límites del viento) pero topamos con revisores pro-fotovoltaica duros de convencer y uno de ellos incluso hizo trampas, cegado por su sueño de un mundo 100% renovable ya para el 2030. Tres años después el caso es que hemos publicado el trabajo en una revista de mayor impacto y prestigio, sencillamente porque tuvimos más suerte con los revisores.”
525. Carlos de Castro et al (2014) – A top-down approach to assess physical and ecological limits of biofuels – Energy 64:506–512 doi:10.1016/j.energy.2013.10.049 – Department of Applied Physics, Campus Miguel Delibes, University of Valladolid – 5 autores
     “We conclude that when the set of estimated parameters has been analysed, there exist reasonable doubts concerning the use of biofuels on a regional and global scale, so they should not, in principle, be promoted as a renewable energy source, nor is it desirable on such a scale.”
526. Carlos de Castro Carranza – Sesgos cognitivos y la fe en un mundo de energía renovable, transporte comunitario, agricultura ecológica y demás tecno-optimismos – Grupo de Energía y Dinámica de Sistemas, 19/10/2014 – Universidad de Valladolid – http://www.eis.uva.es/energiasostenible/?p=2288
     “Quizás prefiera seguir a la mayoría o a la autoridad de las decenas de autores que con su entusiasmo olvidaron el primer principio de la termodinámica.”
527. Marta Victoria y Rodrigo Moretón (2014) – Siete gráficos para ponerse al día en fotovoltaica – La Marea, 22/12/2014 – Observatorio Crítico de la Energía; colaboradores del Círculo de Economía, Energía y Ecología de Podemos – http://www.lamarea.com/2014/12/22/siete-graficos-para-ponerse-al-dia-en-fotovoltaica/
     “A la vista de los datos anteriores, no queda duda de que el futuro es fotovoltaico. Aunque a algunos esto les dé mucho miedo. Se puede afirmar con bastante seguridad que en la próxima década un porcentaje significativo de energía fotovoltaica cubrirá la demanda eléctrica en los países desarrollados. La tecnología ya está lista.”
528. Pedro Prieto – Fotovoltaica: pros y contras. Dos perspectivas desde el ecologismo – Crisis Energética, 31/12/2014 – http://www.crisisenergetica.org/article.php?story=20141231193246174
     “Es decir, lo que se desprende de este enfoque es que una civilización en un estadio con TRE de 3 a 6 podría vivir perfectamente en ese nivel de consumo energético, pero no dispondría de la complejidad técnica o tecnológica para producir sistemas complejos como el fotovoltaico. Por el contrario, la sociedad que sí puede fabricarlos, necesita en su complejidad disponer de una fuente energética de una TRE que la fotovoltaica precisamente no le puede ofrecer, por mucha mejora tecnológica de la oblea o del módulo FV que se pueda dar. Esta es la paradoja que puede estar detrás de este frenazo en las instalaciones mundiales, mucho antes de que siquiera hayan alcanzado un estatus de reemplazo serio de las energías fósiles.”
529. Ted Trainer (2012) – Can Australia run on renewable energy? The negative case – Energy Policy 50:306–314 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.07.024 – Faculty of Arts, University of New South Wales
     “The current discussion of climate change and energy problems is generally based on the assumption that technical solutions are possible and that the task is essentially to determine the most effective ways. This view relies heavily on the expectation that renewable energy sources can be substituted for fossil fuels. Australia is more favourably situated regarding renewable sources than almost any other country. This discussion attempts to estimate the investment cost that would be involved in deriving Australia’s total energy supply from renewable sources. When provision is made for intermittency and plant redundancy it is concluded that the total investment cost is likely to be unaffordable.”
530. Ted Trainer (2012) – Can the world run on renewable energy? A revised negative case – Humanomics 29:88-104 – Conjoint Lecturer, Social Sciences, University of New South Wales – http://parracan.net/images/stories/documents/tt_canw.pdf
     “The current discussion of climate change and energy problems is generally based on the assumption that technical solutions are possible and that the task is essentially to determine the most effective ways. This view relies heavily on the expectation that renewable energy sources can be substituted for fossil fuels. This discussion improves on an earlier attempt to estimate the investment cost that would be involved in deriving total world energy supply from renewable sources. It is concluded that the investment cost would be unaffordable.”
531. Ted Trainer (2013) – 100% Renewable supply? Comments on the reply by Jacobson and Delucchi to the critique by Trainer – Energy Policy doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.10.007 – Social Sciences, University of New South Wales – http://socialsciences.arts.unsw.edu.au/tsw/JandDreplytoreply.htm
     “I recently criticised the claim by Jacobson and Delucchi that renewable energy sources could meet world energy demand. Jacobson and Delucchi replied defending their position. This is a response to the main points made in that reply … It is argued that Jacobson and Delucchi do not provide satisfactory analyses of these issues and that they do not show that energy supply can be 100% renewable. This discussion is intended to clarify some of the core issues in the debate about the limits of renewable energy.”
532. Lawrence M. Lidsky (1983) – The Trouble With Fusion – Technology Review – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – http://www.askmar.com/Robert%20Bussard/The%20Trouble%20With%20Fusion.pdf
     “Long touted as an inexhaustible energy source for the next century, fusion as it is now being developed will almost certainly be too expensive and unreliable for commercial use.”
533. Alicia Valero Delgado (2014) – Gaia versus Thanatia. El crepúsculo de los recursos de la Tierra – II Congreso Internacional – Más allá del pico del petróleo: el futuro de la energía, Barbastro (Huesca), 10/10/2014 – Directora del Área de Ecología Industrial, Centro de Investigación de Recursos y Consumos Energéticos, Zaragoza – http://www.congresopicodepetroleo.unedbarbastro.es/ADJUNTO/presentacionesCongreso/2014/dia10/AliciaValeroPresentacion.pdf
534. Mihaljo Mesarovic and Eduard Pestel (1974) – Mankind at the Turning Point: The Second Report to The Club of Rome – New York: E.P. Dutton – ISBN-13: 978-0525039457 – 210 Págs. – http://www.clubofrome.org/?p=1168
535. Iñigo Capellán-Pérez et al (2012) – World Limits Model (WoLiM) 1.0 – Model Documentation – Grupo de Energía y Dinámica de Sistemas – Escuela de Ingenierías Industriales, Universidad de Valladolid – http://www.eis.uva.es/energiasostenible/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/WoLiM_1.0-Model-Documentation_July-2014.pdf – 4 authors
     “This model is a E3 simulation system dynamic model that focus on energy resource constraints and its implications for human socioeconomic systems at world aggregated level. In this version, it aims to describe the relationship Economy-Energy-Environment focusing on biophysical limits and deployment potential of renewable and non-renewable energies, as well as on anthropogenic Climate Change.”
536. Iñigo Capellán Pérez, Margarita Mediavilla, Carlos de Castro, Oscar Carpintero, Luis Javier Miguel (2014) – Fossil fuel depletion and socio-economic scenarios: An integrated approach – Energy doi:10.1016/j.energy.2014.09.063 – Low Carbon Programme, Instituto de Economía Pública, University of Basque Country – http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Inigo_Capellan-Perez/publication/267862897_Fossil_fuel_depletion_and_socio-economic_scenarios_An_integrated_approach/links/545b4f030cf2f1dbcbc7f9b4.pdf
     “The results show that demand-driven evolution, as performed in the past, might be unfeasible: strong energy-supply scarcity is found in the next two decades, especially in the transportation sector before 2020. Electricity generation is unable to fulfill its demand in 2025-2040, and a large expansion of electric renewable energies move us close to their limits. In order to find achievable scenarios, we are obliged to set hypotheses which are hardly used in GEA scenarios, such as zero or negative economic growth.”
537. Jorge L. Sarmiento, Corinne Le Quéré and Stephen W. Pacala (1995) – Limiting future atmospheric carbon dioxide – Global Biogeochemical Cycles 9:121-137 – Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University – http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/jls9501.pdf – 3 autores
     “We estimate anthropogenic carbon emission required to stabilize future atmospheric CO2 at various levels ranging from 350 ppm to 750 ppm … the uptake by these two sinks decreases substantially at higher atmospheric CO2 levels.”
538. IPCC Working Group I (2013) – 5th Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis – Summary for Policymakers – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf
     “The RF of the total aerosol effect in the atmosphere, which includes cloud adjustments due to aerosols, is –0.9 [–1.9 to −0.1] W m−2 (medium confidence), and results from a negative forcing from most aerosols and a positive contribution from black carbon absorption of solar radiation. There is high confidence that aerosols and their interactions with clouds have offset a substantial portion of global mean forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases. They continue to contribute the largest uncertainty to the total RF estimate. {7.5, 8.3, 8.5}”
539. Iñigo Capellán-Pérez et al (2012) – World Limits Model (WoLiM) 1.0 – Model Documentation – Grupo de Energía y Dinámica de Sistemas – http://www.eis.uva.es/energiasostenible/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/WoLiM_1.0-Model-Documentation_July-2014.pdf
     “The reason for the simplification in this model version is the lack of consensus on the literature about the influence of energy scarcity on the future economic growth. Although some authors analyze this relationship (e.g. (Hirsch, 2008)), there is neither enough historical data at a global level to identify a tendency nor a well-developed and widely accepted theory on this topic.”
540. Iñigo Capellán‐Pérez et al (2014) – Agotamiento de los combustibles fósiles y escenarios socio‐económicos: un enfoque integrado – Grupo de Energía y Dinámica de Sistemas, 18/09/2014 – Low Carbon Programme. Instituto de Economía Pública, University of Basque Country – http://www.eis.uva.es/energiasostenible/?page_id=2216 – 5 autores
     “Los resultados obtenidos con el modelo WoLiM muestran que el sistema socio‐económico mundial no va a ser capaz de seguir ninguno de los escenarios que hemos propuesto (que imitan visiones de futuro habituales en las agencias internacionales) … Recalcamos de nuevo que la exclusión de algunos aspectos que no se han podido tener en cuenta en el modelo sólo puede empeorar los resultados (ver Apéndice A).”
541. World Energy Outlook – International Energy Agency, 12/11/2014
     “El sistema energético mundial corre el peligro de no colmar las esperanzas y expectativas puestas en él.”
542. Iñigo Capellán‐Pérez et al (2014) – Agotamiento de los combustibles fósiles y escenarios socio‐económicos: un enfoque integrado – Grupo de Energía y Dinámica de Sistemas – Low Carbon Programme, Instituto de Economía Pública, University of Basque Country – http://www.eis.uva.es/energiasostenible/?page_id=2216 – 5 autores
     “Los resultados muestran que una transición energética dirigida por la demanda y el mercado, como las realizadas en el pasado, no parece posible: si las tendencias de demanda continúan se prevé una fuerte escasez antes de 2020, especialmente para el sector del transporte, mientras la generación de electricidad es incapaz de cubrir la demanda a partir de 2025‐2050. Para poder encontrar escenarios que sean compatibles con las restricciones derivadas de los picos de los combustibles fósiles es preciso aplicar hipótesis que raramente son contempladas por las instituciones internacionales o los estudios de GEA como crecimientos económicos cero o negativos. ”
543. Iñigo Capellán-Pérez et al (2012) – World Limits Model (WoLiM) 1.0 – Model Documentation – Grupo de Energía y Dinámica de Sistemas – Escuela de Ingenierías Industriales, Universidad de Valladolid – http://www.eis.uva.es/energiasostenible/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/WoLiM_1.0-Model-Documentation_July-2014.pdf – 4 autores
     “The omission of restrictions and feedbacks when solving a system can only lead to optimistic results … However, since in all scenarios the peak of all fossil fuels occurs in the range of 15-20 years, the introduction of the competition would only tend to slightly delay the first “scarcity points” while hastening the last ones. In brief, for each scenario, the scarcity points for both fuels and sectors would tend to converge in time, thus, not affecting the main conclusions of the modeling exercise. However, from a societal point of view, the transition might be less challenging if the “scarcity points” are more spread in time.”
544. Iñigo Capellán-Pérez et al (2012) – World Limits Model (WoLiM) 1.0 – Model Documentation – Grupo de Energía y Dinámica de Sistemas – Escuela de Ingenierías Industriales, Universidad de Valladolid – http://www.eis.uva.es/energiasostenible/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/WoLiM_1.0-Model-Documentation_July-2014.pdf – 4 autores
     “Although in previous work the feedback energy-economy has been implemented (de Castro, 2009; de Castro et al., 2009), the reason for this simplification in this model version is the lack of consensus on the literature about the influence of energy scarcity on the economic growth.”
545. Carlos de Castro Carranza (2009) – Escenarios de energía-economía mundiales con modelos de dinámica de sistemas – Tesis doctoral – Departamento de Ingeniería de Sistemas y Automática – Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales, Universidad de Valladolid – http://www.eis.uva.es/energiasostenible/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Tesis-Carlos-de-Castro.pdf
546. Dale et al (2012) – Global energy modelling – A biophysical approach (GEMBA) Part 2: Methodology – Ecological Economics 73:158–167 doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.10.028 – Advanced Energy and Material Systems (AEMS) Lab, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, University of Canterbury, New Zealand – 3 autores
     “The methodology proposes a new and important contribution to the field of biophysical economics; a lifetime evolving function for the dynamics of the energy return on investment (EROI) … The main finding of the model is that growth of the renewable energy sector may impact investment in other areas of the economy and thereby stymie economic growth.”
547. Willem P. Nel and Christopher J. Cooper (2008) – Implications of fossil fuel constraints on economic growth and global warming – Energy Policy 37:166-180 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.08.013 – Department of Geography, Environmental Management and Energy Studies, Institute for Energy Studies, University of Johannesburg – 2 autores
     “Energy is commonly treated as a limitless exogenous input to economic planning with the result that energy demand is well defined, but disconnected from the physical and logistical realities of supply.”
548. Peter Turchin (2010) – Political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade – Nature 364:608 doi:10.1038/463608a – Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut – http://cliodynamics.info/PDF/Nature2020letter.pdf
     “Quantitative historical analysis reveals that complex human societies are affected by recurrent – and predictable – waves of political instability … Very long ‘secular cycles’ interact with shorter-term processes. In the United States, 50-year instability spikes occurred around 1870, 1920 and 1970, so another could be due around 2020. We are also entering a dip in the so-called Kondratiev wave, which traces 40-60-year economic-growth cycles. This could mean that future recessions will be severe. In addition, the next decade will be severe.”
549. Safa Motesharrei et al (2014) – Human and nature dynamics (HANDY): Modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies – Ecological Economics 101:90–102 doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.02.014 – School of Public Policy and Department of Mathematics, University of Maryland
     “It is important to note that in both of these scenarios, the Elites – due to their wealth – do not suffer the detrimental effects of the environmental collapse until much later than the Commoners … In sum, the results of our experiments, discussed in Section 6, indicate that either one of the two features apparent in historical societal collapses – over-exploitation of natural resources and strong economic stratification – can independently result in a complete collapse. Given economic stratification, collapse is very difficult to avoid and requires major policy changes, including major reductions in inequality and population growth rates.”
550. Safa Motesharrei et al (2014) – Human and nature dynamics (HANDY): Modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies – Ecological Economics 101:90–102 doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.02.014 – School of Public Policy and Department of Mathematics, University of Maryland + National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) – http://ac.els-cdn.com/S0921800914000615/1-s2.0-S0921800914000615-main.pdf
     “While some members of society might raise the alarm that the system is moving towards an impending collapse and therefore advocate structural changes to society in order to avoid it, Elites and their supporters, who opposed making these changes, could point to the long sustainable trajectory ‘so far’ in support of doing nothing.”
551. Peter Turchin (2010) – Political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade – Nature 364:608 doi:10.1038/463608a – Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut – http://cliodynamics.info/PDF/Nature2020letter.pdf
     “Quantitative historical analysis reveals that complex human societies are affected by recurrent – and predictable – waves of political instability … Very long ‘secular cycles’ interact with shorter-term processes. In the United States, 50-year instability spikes occurred around 1870, 1920 and 1970, so another could be due around 2020. We are also entering a dip in the so-called Kondratiev wave, which traces 40-60-year economic-growth cycles. This could mean that future recessions will be severe. In addition, the next decade will be severe.”
552. Elinor Ostrom (1990) – Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action (Political Economy of Institutions and Decisions) – Cambridge University Press – Distinguished Professor and Arthur F. Bentley Professor of Political Science and Co-Director of the Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis, Indiana University + Research Professor and the Founding Director of the Center for the Study of Institutional Diversity, Arizona State University – ISBN-13: 978-0521405997 – 298 Págs.
553. Garrett Hardin (1968) – The Tragedy of the Commons – Science 162:1243-1248 doi:10.1126/science.162.3859.1243 – Professor Emeritus of Human Ecology in the Department of Biological Sciences at the University of California, Santa Barbara – http://www.cs.wright.edu/~swang/cs409/Hardin.pdf
     “Analysis of the pollution problem as a function of population density uncovers a not generally recognized principle of morality, namely: the morality of an act is a function of the state of the system at the time it is performed.”
554. Joseph A. Tainter (1988) – The Collapse of Complex Societies – Cambridge University Press – Rocky Mountain Research Station, United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service – ISBN: 0-521-34092 6 – 262 Págs.
     “Entropy poses an ultimate limit: someday in the unimaginably distant future, all processes requiring energy will have ceased. But even on a scale of decades and centuries, human enterprises and institutions face obstacles to sustainability. Diminishing returns are a familiar phenomenon … Tainter, an archaeologist, finds that diminishing returns on aggregate investments in the many facets of social complexity— from agricultural production and mineral extraction to public administration and scientific research—may help explain why civilizations collapse, and may pose the gravest threat to the sustainability of cherished institutions.”
555. Joseph A. Tainter (2011) – Energy, complexity, and sustainability: A historical perspective – Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions 1:89–95 doi:10.1016/j.eist.2010.12.001 – Department of Environment and Society, Utah State University
     “Problems are inevitable, requiring increasing complexity, and conservation is therefore insufficient to produce sustainability. Future sustainability will require continued high levels of energy consumption to address converging problems.”
556. Joseph A. Tainter (2004) – Problem Solving: Complexity, History, Sustainability – Population & Environment 22:3-41 doi:10.1023/A:1006632214612 – Rocky Mountain Research Station, United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service – http://www.fraw.org.uk/files/economics/tainter_2000.pdf
     “Sustainability or collapse follow from the success or failure of problem-solving institutions … Historical case studies illustrate different outcomes to long-term development of complexity in problem solving. These cases clarify future options for contemporary societies: collapse, simplification, or increasing complexity based on increasing energy subsidies.”
557. Joseph A. Tainter (2010) – The Energy−Complexity Spiral – Advances in Energy Studies 2010 – Department of Environment and Society, Utah State University – http://www.societalmetabolism.org/aes2010/Proceeds/DIGITAL%20PROCEEDINGS_files/PAPERS/Invited_Joe_Tainter_Presentation.pdf
     “Conclusions: 1. To assume that we can voluntarily consume less energy is to assume that the future will present no challenges. 2. Most likely, future challenges will require greater complexity in problem solving and more energy. 3. We will learn this century whether non-fossil-fuel energies can provide sufficient energy to solve societal problems, and flexibility to increase energy rapidly when needed. 4. Because of the connection of energy to problem solving, we will not stop using fossil fuels until we are forced to. ”
558. Ugo Bardi – Tainter’s law: where is the physics? – Cassandra’s legacy, 27/03/2011 – http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.it/2011/03/tainters-law-where-is-physics.html
     “The idea of decreasing returns to complexity looks consistent and reasonable. But, why do societies behave in this way? Tainter does not provide a real explanation; on this point, he seems to follow the tradition of historians to describe rather than interpret. But, if you happen to have a more physics-oriented point of view, then describing what happens is not enough. You want to know what are the inner mechanisms that make civilisations evolve towards higher complexity. What is the physics of collapse? ”
559. David Korowicz (2010) – Tipping Point: Near-Term Systemic Implications of a Peak in Global Oil Production An Outline Review – The Oil Drum, 15/03/2010 – Feasta & The Risk/Resilience Network – http://www.theoildrum.com/files/Tipping%20Point.pdf
     “It will no doubt be a difficult time, and horrific for some. We are likely to see a major increase in mortality. But it will also be a time when many people will find a liberation in new social and personal roles; in the new friends and connections they make; in the skills and pastimes acquired; in their ability to contribute to other’s welfare; in their freedom from the subtle corrosion of positional consumption; and in the pleasures gained from contributing to the most crucial of shared endeavours. ”
560. Garrett Hardin (1998) – Extensions of “The Tragedy of the Commons” – Science 280:682-683 doi:10.1126/science.280.5364.682 – Professor Emeritus of Human Ecology in the Department of Biological Sciences at the University of California, Santa Barbara – http://www.garretthardinsociety.org/articles/art_extension_tragedy_commons.html
     “Either socialism or the privatism of free enterprise. Either one may work, either one may fail: ‘The devil is in the details.’ But with an unmanaged commons, you can forget about the devil: As overuse of resources reduces carrying capacity, ruin is inevitable.”
561. Mikael Höök (2014) – Depletion of conventional hydrocarbons: recent perspectives on oil, gas and coal – II Congreso Internacional – Más allá del pico del petróleo: el futuro de la energía, Barbastro (Huesca), 09/10/2014 – Associate Professor of the Uppsala University, Sweden , Secretary of ASPO International – http://www.congresopicodepetroleo.unedbarbastro.es/ADJUNTO/presentacionesCongreso/2014/dia9/MikaelHookPresentacion.pdf
562. Collin J. Campbell (2012) – Recognition of peak oil – Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment 1:114–117 doi:10.1002/wene.7
     “The evidence suggests that the peak of regular conventional oil was passed in 2005 and that the peak of all categories followed in 2008, while the peak of gas is not expected until 2020 (Figure 2). The resources of tar sands and other nonconventional categories are huge but the extraction is slow and costly, delivering a low, if not negative, net energy yield … In other words, we come to the end of the first half of the age of oil. It was a remarkable chapter in history that saw the rapid expansion of industry, transport, trade, and agriculture, allowing the population to expand sixfold in parallel … A failure to adapt means fewer people. ”
563. Juan Rosell Lastortras (2007) – ¿Y después del petróleo qué? – Deusto – ISBN: 978-84-234-2588-4 – 414 Págs. – “Pero ahora estamos llegando al tope de producción posible … la bomba de relojería contra nuestra actual sociedad devoradora de energía se ha puesto en marcha” (p. 116)
564. Juan Rosell Lastortras (2007) – ¿Y después del petróleo qué? – Deusto – ISBN: 978-84-234-2588-4 – 414 Págs.
     “En definitiva, muchas y diferentes teorías con argumentos bastante sólidos, especialmente los optimistas, que creen en las tecnologías del futuro.”
565. Juan Rosell Lastortras (2007) – ¿Y después del petróleo qué? – Deusto – ISBN: 978-84-234-2588-4 – 414 Págs.
     “El crecimiento mundial se ha multiplicado por catorce desde 1970, mientras que el consumo petrolífero o energético en el mismo número de años sólo se ha multiplicado por algo menos de dos.”
566. Juan Rosell Lastortras (2007) – ¿Y después del petróleo qué? – Deusto – ISBN: 978-84-234-2588-4 – 414 Págs.
     “En el debate energético, el cambio climático es un tema tan trascendente para la Tierra y sus habitantes que, si alguien pretende politizarlo, ensuciarlo o manejarlo hacia sus intereses partidistas o electorales, es obligación de la sociedad sacar a la luz pública datos, números e información, así como poner sin miramientos en el banquillo de los acusados a quienes sólo aportan malestar, gritos, bronca y provocaciones de todo tipo. Es el momento de las soluciones y no de las buenas intenciones … El enigma – problema o situación – del cambio climático es un tema para tomarse muy en serio en clave de presente y todavía más de futuro … Quizá debamos hablar de impuestos ecológicos que sustituyan buena parte de los impuestos sobre las ventas, las personas o las sociedades.” (p. 208,261)
567. Juan Rosell Lastortras (2007) – ¿Y después del petróleo qué? – Deusto – ISBN: 978-84-234-2588-4 – 414 Págs.
     “Una solución intermedia, probablemente la más racional aunque seguro que no es la mejor, pues la mejor sería una solución extrema acertada, podría ser asegurar el riesgo, es decir, poner mecanismos que neutralizaran los puntos de peligro más evidentes o más probabilísticos.”
568. Peter Vajk (1976) – The impact of space colonization on world dynamics – Technological Forecasting and Social Change 9:361–399 doi:10.1016/0040-1625(76)90019-6 – Science Applications, Inc.
     “The Forrester world dynamics model (as extended to a two-sector model by D. R. Tuerpe) has been used to investigate the impact of space colonization on the predicament of mankind in general and on the plight of the underdeveloped nations in particular.”
569. Sjell Aleklett – IMF and resource scarcity – Aleklett’s Energy Mix, 28/01/2013 – http://aleklett.wordpress.com/2013/01/28/imf-and-resource-scarcity/
     “During the past week the future of the world economy has been discussed in Davos, Switzerland. Below, I think it is appropriate to quote Christine Lagarde, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In her speech of 23 January she presented the following viewpoint: … increasing vulnerability from resource scarcity and climate change, with the potential for major social and economic disruption. This is the real wild card in the pack.”
570. Klaus Schwab – Global Risks 2011 Sixth Edition An initiative of the Risk Response Network – World Economic Forum – http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalRisks_Report_2011.pdf
     “At the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2011 in Davos-Klosters, the Forum will go beyond its current global risk work in launching the Risk Response Network (RRN). The RRN will build on the understanding embodied in Global Risks 2011, Sixth Edition to provide a platform for our Partners and constituents to collaborate in multistakeholder efforts to shape a more secure, innovative and resilient future.”
571. Jørgen Randers (2012) – 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years – The Club of Rome – Professor of Climate Strategy, BI Norwegian Business School; Sustainability Council, The Dow Chemical Company – ISBN-13: 978-1603584210 – 416 Págs. – http://www.2052.info/
     “In the current globalized world of money and trade, it is more likely that the decline will take the form of reduced purchasing power, not increased mortality … so what overshoots and collapses is ‘well-being’, not population or GDP.” (p. 305)
572. Jørgen Randers (2012) – 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years – Chelsea Green Publishing – Professor of Climate Strategy, BI Norwegian Business School; Sustainability Council, The Dow Chemical Company – ISBN-13: 978-1603584210 – 416 Págs. – http://www.2052.info/
     “My forecast does say that global warming may trigger self-reinforcing climate change in the second half of the twenty-firts century, which would certainly qualify as a collpse. ” (p. 301)
573. Jorgen Randers (2012) – Systematic short-termism: Climate, capitalism and democracy – Climate Code Red – http://www.climatecodered.org/2012/11/systematic-short-termism-climate.html
     “I am a climate pessimist. I believe (regrettably) that humanity will not meet the climate challenge with sufficient strength to save our grandchildren from living in a climate-damaged world. Humanity (regrettably) will not make what sacrifice is necessary today in order to ensure a better life for our ancestors forty years hence. The reason is that we are narrowly focused on maximum well-being in the short term.”
574. Kees Jan van Groenigen et al (2014) – Faster Decomposition Under Increased Atmospheric CO2 Limits Soil Carbon Storage – Science 344:508-509 doi:10.1126/science.1249534 – Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University + Department of Botany, School of Natural Sciences, Trinity College Dublin – 5 autores
     “Earth system models project that rising atmospheric CO2 will promote carbon uptake by the terrestrial biosphere (plants). The resulting increase in carbon stocks in plant biomass and soil organic matter would slow the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations.”
575. Ying Sun et al (2014) – Impact of mesophyll diffusion on estimated global land CO2 fertilization – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1418075111 – Department of Geological Sciences, University of Texas at Austin – 6 autores
     “In C3 plants, CO2 concentrations drop considerably along mesophyll diffusion pathways from substomatal cavities to chloroplasts where CO2 assimilation occurs.”
576. Dolores García (2009) – A new world model including energy and climate change data – En: First International Workshop Mission Earth, Modeling and Simulation for a Sustainable Future, 26/01/2009 – Independent researcher based in Brighton, UK – http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5145
     “In the “business as usual” scenario the pattern was one of collapse of human population, food production and industrial output, in a way similar to what happens in the World3 business as usual scenario. The decline is gradual, starting somewhere around 2030 … A remarkable result of the model in the business as usual scenario is that carbon emissions don’t go very high, peaking at 510ppm.”
577. Gail Tverberg (2013) – Why I Don’t Believe Randers’ Limits to Growth Forecast to 2052 – Our Finite World, 25/09/2013 – http://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/09/25/why-i-dont-believe-randers-limits-to-growth-forecast-to-2052/
     “A strong case can be made that a shortage of one energy product will have cascading effects throughout the economy, which is closer to what the original Limits to Growth model assumed. We often talk about Liebig’s Law of the Minimum being a problem. This law says that if a particular process is missing some essential ingredient, it won’t happen. Thus, if delivery trucks don’t have oil, the effects will cascade throughout the system, causing what will look like a major recession.”
578. Peter Turchin and Sergey A. Nefedov (2009) – Secular Cycles – Princeton University Press – ISBN-13: 978-0691136967 – 362 Págs.
     “”Our models, and the demographic-structural theory in particular, have matured to the point where they can be used to make quantitative and testable predictions.”
579. Zygmunt Bauman (2006) – Miedo líquido – Paidós – ISBN: 978 84 493 1984 6 – 231 Págs.
     “Los mercados, es bien sabido, actúan en un sentido muy distinto al de las intenciones del Estado social: el mercado prospera cuando se dan condiciones de inseguridad; saca buen provecho de los temores humanos y de la sensación de desamparo.”
580. Marion King Hubbert (1956) – Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels – American Petroleum Institute – General Geology
581. Ugo Bardi and Alessandro Lavacchi (2012) – A Simple Interpretation of Hubbert’s Model of Resource Exploitation – Energies 2:646-661 doi:10.3390/en20300646 – Dipartimento di Chimica, Università di Firenze; ASPO – Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, Italian section – http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/2/3/646/
     “Despite its widespread use, Hubbert’s model is sometimes criticized for being arbitrary and its underlying assumptions are rarely examined … We show that this model can reproduce several historical cases, even for resources other than crude oil, and provide a useful tool for understanding the general mechanisms of resource exploitation and the future of energy production in the world’s economy.”
582. Ugo Bardi and Leigh Yaxley (2005) – How general is the Hubbert curve? The case of fisheries – Association for the study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) + Dipartimento di Chimica, Università di Firenze; Society of Petroleum Engineers – https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Leigh_Yaxley/publication/228515234_How_general_is_the_Hubbert_curve_The_case_of_fisheries/links/0046351b732a372079000000?origin=publication_detail
     “The Hubbert model of crude oil production can describe several regional cases, but it is not yet generally accepted as being of validi for all cases, especially for the worldwide case of oil extraction. The present paper shows that the model is of general validity to describe cases in which a resource is depleted faster than it can be replaced, as in the case of biological resources. In some cases, historical fishery data appear to be relevant for understanding the present price trends of crude oil.”
583. Ugo Bardi (2005) – The mineral economy: a model for the shape of oil production curves – Energy Policy 33:53-61 doi:10.1016/S0301-4215(03)00197-6 – Dipartimento di Chimica, Università di Firenze – authors
     “Considering worldwide oil production, the simulations indicate that the after-peak downward slope might turn out to be considerably more steep than the upward slope, something that could have unpleasant effects on the economy.”
584. Ugo Bardi (2014) – Mind Sized World Models – Sustainability 5:896-911 doi:10.3390/su5030896 – Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università di Firenze
     “It is this asymmetry leading to a rapid collapse after a slow growth, that prompted the author to name the model after the Roman philosopher Lucius Annaeus Seneca who, in his – Letter to Lucilius, stated that – increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid. ”
585. Cartas a Lucilio
586. John Michael Greer – Dark Age America: The End of the Old Order – The Archidruid Report – http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.it/2014/09/dark-age-america-end-of-old-order.html
     “The process that drives the collapse of civilizations has a surprisingly simple basis: the mismatch between the maintenance costs of capital and the resources that are available to meet those costs. Capital here is meant in the broadest sense of the word, and includes everything in which a civilization invests its wealth: buildings, roads, imperial expansion, urban infrastructure, information resources, trained personnel, or what have you.”
587. Liebig’s law of the minimum – Wikipedia, 31/07/2014 – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liebig’s_law_of_the_minimum
     “Liebig’s law of the minimum, often simply called Liebig’s law or the law of the minimum, is a principle developed in agricultural science by Carl Sprengel (1828) and later popularized byJustus von Liebig. It states that growth is controlled not by the total amount of resources available, but by the scarcest resource (limiting factor).”
588. Marten Scheffer et al (2001) – Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems – Nature 413:91-596 doi:10.1038/35098000 – Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University – http://bio.classes.ucsc.edu/bioe107/Scheffer 2001 Nature.pdf – 5 authors
     “Studies show that a loss of resilience usually paves the way for a switch to an alternative state. This suggests that strategies for sustainable management of such ecosystems should focus on maintaining resilience … Ecosystem state shifts can cause large losses of ecological and economic resources, and restoring a desired state may require drastic and expensive intervention (ref). Thus, neglect of the possibility of shifts to alternative stable states in ecosystems may have heavy costs to society. Because of hysteresis in their response and the invisibility of resilience itself, these systems typically lack early-warning signals of massive change. Therefore attention tends to focus on precipitating events rather than on the underlying loss of resilience.”
589. Sergey V. Buldyrev et al (2010) – Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks – Nature 464:1025-1028 doi:10.1038/nature08932 – Department of Physics, Yeshiva University – http://polymer.bu.edu/hes/articles/bppsh10.pdf – 5 authors
     “Surprisingly, a broader degree distribution increases the vulnerability of interdependent networks to random failure, which is opposite to how a single network behaves. Our findings highlight the need to consider interdependent network properties in designing robust networks.”
590. Gail Tverberg (2014) – Limits to Growth–At our doorstep, but not recognized – Our Finite World, 06/02/2014 – http://ourfiniteworld.com/2014/02/06/limits-to-growth-at-our-doorstep-but-not-recognized/
     “I have noticed comments in the literature indicating that the Limits to Growth study has been superseded by more recent analyses. For example, the article Entropy and Economics by Avery, when talking about the Limits to Growth study says, ‘Today, the more accurate Hubbert Peak model is used instead to predict rate of use of a scarce resource as a function of time.’ There is no reason to believe that the Hubbert Peak model is more accurate! The original study used actual resource flows to predict when we might expect a problem with investment capital. Hubbert Peak models overlook financial limits, such as lack of debt availability, so overstate likely future oil flows. Because of this, they are not appropriate for forecasts after the world peak is hit.”
591. Jørgen Randers (2012) – 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years – Chelsea Green Publishing – Professor of Climate Strategy, BI Norwegian Business School; Sustainability Council, The Dow Chemical Company – ISBN-13: 978-1603584210 – 416 Págs. – http://www.2052.info/
     “This is best done by identifying and removing unsustainabilities one at a time. ” (p. 308)
592. Asociación Touda – Dennis Meadows: «No hay nada que podamos hacer» – Asociación Touda, 30/04/2013 – http://www.asociacion-touda.org/2013/04/30/dennis-meadows-no-hay-nada-que-podamos-hacer/
     “Nuestro sistema económico y financiero no es sólo una actividad. Es una herramienta que hemos desarrollado que refleja nuestros objetivos y valores … Cualquier persona que se endeuda está diciendo: no me importa lo que suceda… Los valores dominantes implican que el resultado seguirá igual. Estos valores se reflejan en el cambio climático de manera gigantesca. Pero ¿a quién le importa?”
593. Carlos de Castro Carranza – ¿Lograremos evitar el colapso ecológico-social? – Grupo de Energía y Dinámica de Sistemas, 21/09/2014 – http://www.eis.uva.es/energiasostenible/?p=2224
     “La respuesta simple y directa a la pregunta es No. Y una razón es porque todo sistema que crece exponencialmente se enfrenta antes o después con algún tipo de límite natural (sea una reacción nuclear en cadena, el crecimiento de población bacteriana en una placa petri o el uso de energía, producción industrial, uso de agua o población humana).”
594. Anthony D. Barnosky et al (2012) – Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere – Nature 486:52–58 doi:10.1038/nature11018 – Department of Integrative Biology, University of California – http://web.stanford.edu/group/hadlylab/_pdfs/Barnoskyetal2012.pdf – 22 authors
     “Comparison of the present extent of planetary change with that characterizing past global-scale state shifts, and the enormous global forcings we continue to exert, suggests that another global-scale state shift is highly plausible within decades to centuries, if it has not already been initiated.”
595. Donnella Meadows, Jørgen Randers, Dennis Meadows (2004) – Los Límites del crecimiento: 30 años después – Galaxia Gutenberg – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – ISBN: 8481096016 – 514 Págs.
     “El colapso llegará de forma muy repentina, sorprendiendo a todos.”
596. Andrew Nikiforuk – A Big Summer Story You Missed: Soaring Oil Debt – The Tyee, 29/08/2014 – http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2014/08/29/Soaring-Oil-Debt-Summer/
     “Last July the government agency, which has collected mundane statistics on energy matters for decades, quietly revealed that 127 of the world’s largest oil and gas companies are running out of cash … Overburdened by debt, these firms are selling assets.”
597. As cash flow flattens, major energy companies increase debt, sell assets – US Energy Information Administration, 29/07/2014 – http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=17311
     “Based on data compiled from quarterly reports, for the year ending March 31, 2014, cash from operations for 127 major oil and natural gas companies totaled $568 billion, and major uses of cash totaled $677 billion, a difference of almost $110 billion … The gap between cash from operations and major uses of cash has widened in recent years from a low of $18 billion in 2010 to $100 billion to $120 billion during the past three years.”
598. Asjylyn Loder – Shale Drillers Feast on Junk Debt to Stay on Treadmill – Bloomberg, 30/04/2014 – http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-30/shale-drillers-feast-on-junk-debt-to-say-on-treadmill.html
     “The spending never stops, said Virendra Chauhan, an oil analyst with Energy Aspects in London. Since output from shale wells drops sharply in the first year, producers have to keep drilling more and more wells to maintain production. That means selling off assets and borrowing more money. “The whole boom in shale is really a treadmill of capital spending and debt,” Chauhan said.”
599. James Stafford – The Real Cause Of Low Oil Prices: Interview With Arthur Berman – Oil Price, 04/01/2015 – Editor – http://oilprice.com/Interviews/The-Real-Cause-Of-Low-Oil-Prices-Interview-With-Arthur-Berman.html
     “Continental Resources is the biggest player in the Bakken. Their free cash flow—cash from operating activities minus capital expenditures—was -$1.1 billion in the third- quarter of 2014. That means that they spent more than $1 billion more than they made. Their debt was 120% of equity. That means that if they sold everything they own, they couldn’t pay off all their debt. That was at $93 oil prices. And they say that they will be fine at $60 oil prices? Are you kidding?”
600. World Energy Outlook 2013 – International Energy Agency, 12/11/2013 –http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2013/LondonNovember12.pdf
     “Fossil-fuel subsidies increased to $544 billion in 2012.”
601. Richard B. Lee (1969) – !Kung bushmen subsistence: an input–output analysis – En: A. Vayda (Ed.), Environment and Cultural Behavior; Ecological Studies in Cultural Anthropology, Published for American Museum of Natural History [by] Natural History Press, Garden City, N.Y. (1969), pp. 47–79
602. Charles A. S. Hall et al (2009) – What is the Minimum EROI that a Sustainable Society Must Have? – Energies 2:25-47 doi:10.3390/en20100025 – Program in Environmental Science, State University of New York – College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse – http://www.howtoboilafrog.com/docs/eroi.pdf – 3 authors
     “Any fuel with an EROI less than the mean for society (about 10 to one) may in fact be subsidized by the general petroleum economy. For instance, fuels such as corn-based ethanol that have marginally positive EROIs (1.3: 1) will be subsidized by a factor of about two times more than the energy value of the fuel itself by the agricultural, transportation and infrastructure support undertaken by the main economy, which is two thirds based on oil and gas. These may be more important points than the exact math for the fuel itself, although all are important.”
603. Jessica G. Lambert et al (2014) – Energy, EROI and quality of life – Energy Policy 64:153–167 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.001 – Next Generation Energy Initiative, Inc. – 5 autores
     “Our results suggest that energy indices are highly correlated with a higher standard of living. We also find a saturation point at which increases in per capita energy availability (greater than 150 GJ) or EROI (above 20:1) are not associated with further improvement to society.”
604. Pedro Prieto – Fotovoltaica: pros y contras. Dos perspectivas desde el ecologismo – Crisis Energética, 31/12/2014 – http://www.crisisenergetica.org/article.php?story=20141231193246174
     “Efectivamente, todos los fabricantes ofrecen 25 años de garantía de potencia con un cierto decaimiento que cifran adecuadamente en un 20% en los 25 años considerados o garantizados. Bien. Esa es la garantía de potencia. Pero también se firma en los contratos una garantía de material. Esta garantía la ofrecen algunos fabricantes como máximo en 10 años. Ahora la mayoría lo ha recortado a 5 años.”
605. Carlos de Castro Carranza – Una crítica al concepto de la TRE (Tasa de Retorno Energético) – Grupo de Energía y Dinámica de Sistemas, 02/01/2012 – http://www.eis.uva.es/energiasostenible/?p=373
     “Cuando Charles Hall (uno de los creadores del concepto) dice que la TRE del petróleo ha bajado de 100 a 10 en el último siglo, en realidad nunca ha sido 100. Al comienzo de la explotación del petróleo, sólo una pequeña parte de su contenido energético se aprovechaba como tal y los procesos de refinado eran poco eficientes, con lo que la energía útil que terminaba en la sociedad era muy inferior a lo que se consigue ahora. En la actualidad mis cálculos gruesos arrojan que la TRE del petróleo es de alrededor de 3 o 4.”
606. Carlos de Castro Carranza – Una crítica al concepto de la TRE (Tasa de Retorno Energético) – Grupo de Energía y Dinámica de Sistemas, 02/01/2012 –http://www.eis.uva.es/energiasostenible/?p=373
     “El quiz está precisamente en otra ventaja de las energías no renovables, pues son capaces de sostener (mientras duren) una sociedad tecnológica con TREs tan bajas como se quiera siempre que superen el valor 1. La razón con un ejemplo … En cualquier caso se desmonta la idea de que necesitemos TREs grandes desde el punto de vista físico.”
607. Al Gore – The Turning Point: New Hope for the Climate – The New York Times, 18/06/2014 – http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-turning-point-new-hope-for-the-climate-20140618
     “What’s more, Germany’s two largest coal-burning utilities have lost 56 percent of their value over the past four years, and the losses have continued into the first half of 2014. And it’s not just Germany. Last year, the top 20 utilities throughout Europe reported losing half of their value since 2008. According to the Swiss bank UBS, nine out of 10 European coal and gas plants are now losing money.”
608. ¿Por qué los Rockefeller abandonan el negocio petrolero? – BBC Mundo, 23/09/2014 – http://www.bbc.co.uk/mundo/noticias/2014/09/140922_rockefeller_cambio_energia_limpia_jgc.shtml
     “Los herederos de la familia Rockefeller, que lograron su vasta fortuna con el petróleo, venderán sus inversiones en combustibles fósiles para reinvertirlas en energía limpia … El Fondo se une con esta iniciativa a una coalición de filántropos comprometidos con desprenderse de más de US$50.000 millones en activos de combustibles fósiles.”
609. Jeremy Grantham (2011) – Time to Wake Up: Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices Are Over Forever – Climate Progress, 02/05/2011 – Chief Investment Strategist, GMO Capital + Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/05/02/207994/grantham-must-read-time-to-wake-up-days-of-abundant-resources-and-falling-prices-are-over-forever/
     “Statistically, most commodities are now so far away from their former downward trend that it makes it very probable that the old trend has changed – that there is in fact a Paradigm Shift – perhaps the most important economic event since the Industrial Revolution.”
610. Rob Wile (2014) – Is Fracking Safe? – Business Insider, 06/02/2014 – http://www.businessinsider.com/grantham-against-shale-2014-2
     “Jeremy Grantham, whose GMO LLC investment firm manages $117 billion in assets, says the Great American Shale Boom is a dangerous waste of time and money. Grantham, who started his career as an economist at Shell, recently contemplated attending an anti-Keystone Pipeline demonstration in front of the White House. ”
611. Jeremy Grantham (2012) – Be persuasive. Be brave. Be arrested (if necessary) – Nature 491:303 doi:10.1038/491303a – Co-founder and chief investment strategist at GMO, and co-chair of the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment – http://www.nature.com/news/be-persuasive-be-brave-be-arrested-if-necessary-1.11796
     “It is crucial that scientists take more career risks and sound a more realistic, more desperate, note on the global-warming problem. Younger scientists are obsessed by thoughts of tenure, so it is probably up to older, senior and retired scientists to do the heavy lifting. Be arrested if necessary. This is not only the crisis of your lives — it is also the crisis of our species’ existence. I implore you to be brave.”
612. Chris Giles – Geneva Report warns record debt and slow growth point to crisis – Financial Times, 28/09/2014 – http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4df99d28-4590-11e4-ab10-00144feabdc0.html
     “The warning, before the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting in Washington next week, comes amid growing concern that a weakening global recovery is coinciding with the possibility that the US Federal Reserve will begin to raise interest rates within a year.”
613. Isabel M. Gaspar – Las petroleras sufren una ‘fuga’ de 24.000 millones en tres semanas – El Economista, 18/11/2014 – http://www.eleconomista.es/interstitial/volver/213525982/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/6252197/11/14/Las-petroleras-sufren-una-fuga-de-24000-millones-en-tres-semanas-.html
     “Una situación que está poniendo contra las cuerdas las previsiones de beneficio de las petroleras para el año que viene, ya que en apenas tres semanas el recorte de las treinta grandes del sector se ha incrementado ya en unos 24.200 millones de dólares.”
614. Margarita Mediavilla et al (2012) – La transición hacia energías renovables: límites físicos y temporales – Grupo de Energía y Dinámica de Sistemas – Escuela de Ingenierías Industriales, Universidad de Valladolid – http://www.eis.uva.es/energiasostenible/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/modelo_marco_es5_alblog.pdf – 6 autores
     “Debido a esto, los patrones de consumo, producción y crecimiento económico de las décadas anteriores no van a poder mantenerse y, si … podemos encontrarnos con recesiones económicas continuadas.”
615. Juan Laborda – Colapso mundial inminente – Radio Gramsci, 23/09/2014 – http://www.ivoox.com/colapso-mundial-inminente-audios-mp3_rf_3522256_1.html
     “Hoy hablamos con Juan Laborda, uno de los mejores economistas españoles, quien nos anticipa que en el periodo de 6 meses se puede producir un colapso de la economía mundial de consecuencias mucho peores a las que estamos viviendo desde que estallara la crisis financiera en 2008. Nos cuenta por qué no hay recuperación ni se la espera.”
616. Medvédev: “Se están desmantelando los sistemas financieros y comerciales del mundo” – RT en español, 19/09/2014 – http://actualidad.rt.com/economia/view/140737-medvedev-desmantelamiento-sistemas-financieros-comercio-foro
     “Una cosa está clara en este momento: el desmantelamiento de la estabilidad de los sistemas financieros y comerciales mundiales … aseguró Medvédev en el marco de una reunión plenaria del Foro Internacional de Inversiones.”
617. David Korowicz (2012) – Trade-Off Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: a study in global systemic collapse – Metis Risk Consulting / The Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability – http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Trade-Off1.pdf
     “This study considers the relationship between a global systemic banking, monetary and solvency crisis and its implications for the real-time flow of goods and services in the globalised economy. It outlines how contagion in the financial system could set off semi-autonomous contagion in supply chains globally, even where buyers and sellers are linked by solvency, sound money and bank intermediation … These crucial issues have not been recognised by policy-makers nor are they reflected in economic thinking or modelling.”
618. Laura N. Vandenberg et al (2014) – Hormones and endocrine-disrupting chemicals: low-dose effects and non-monotonic dose responses – Endocrine Reviews 33:378–455 doi:10.1210/er.2011-1050 – Center for Regenerative and Developmental Biology and Department of Biology (L.N.V.), Tufts University – http://insideclimatenews.org/sites/default/files/assets/2012-03/Endocrine Reviews article.pdf – 12 autores
     “We illustrate that non-monotonic response sand low-dose effects are remarkably common in studies of natural hormones and EDCs. Whether low doses of EDCs influence certain human disorders is no longer conjecture, because epidemiological studies show that environmental exposures to EDCs are associated with human diseases and disabilities.”
619. Stephen D. Williamson (2013) – Scarce Collateral, the Term Premium, and Quantitative Easing – Washington University in St. Louis, Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond – http://www.artsci.wustl.edu/~swilliam/papers/qe2.pdf
     “Purchases of long-maturity government debt by the central bank are always a good idea, but for unconventional reasons.”
620. Rolf U. Halden (2014) – Epistemology of contaminants of emerging concern and literature meta-analysis – Journal of Hazardous Materials doi:10.1016/j.jhazmat.2014.08.074 – Center for Environmental Security, The Biodesign Institute, Security and Defense Systems Initiative, Arizona State University + Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University
     “CECs emerge from obscurity to height of concern over a period of 14.1 ± 3.6 years. It typically takes 14.5 ± 4.5 years for a CEC to descend from the peak of concern to a new, lower baseline level. ”
621. Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne H. Ehrlich (2013) – Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided? – Proceedings of the Royal society B: Biological Sciences doi: 10.1098/rspb.2012.2845 – Department of Biology, Stanford University
     “Another possible threat to the continuation of civilization is global toxification … Should a global threat materialize, however, no planned mitigating responses (analogous to the ecologically and politically risky ‘geoengineering’ projects often proposed to ameliorate climate disruption [80]) are waiting in the wings ready for deployment.”
622. Tyler Durden (2014) – If The Oil Plunge Continues, “Now May Be A Time To Panic” For US Shale Companies – Zero Hedge, 14/10/2014 – http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-14/if-oil-plunge-continues-now-may-be-time-panic-us-shale-companies
     “Over the past 5 years, the shale industry, fabricated or real reserves notwithstanding, has been a significant boon to the US economy for four main reasons: it has been the target of billions in fixed investment and CapEx spending, it has resulted in tens of thousands of high-paying jobs, its output has been a major tailwind for the US trade deficit, and has generally been a significant contributor to GDP (not to mention various Buffett-controlled or otherwise railway corporations).”
623. Brad Plumer – How falling oil prices are squeezing Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia – Vox, 14/10/2014 – http://www.vox.com/2014/10/14/6975977/which-countries-suffer-most-when-oil-prices-plummet
     “Now the plunge in global oil prices is putting even further strain on the nation’s economy. Oil revenues account for roughly 45 percent of Russia’s budget, and the government’s spending plans for 2015 had assumed that prices would stay in the $100-per-barrel range. If oil continues to sink below that, the country will either have to draw down from its $74 billion foreign-exchange reserves or cut back on planned spending — something that Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested was possible on Tuesday. The economic impact could be deeper still: … ”
624. Ugo Bardi – Peak oil is here: the view from Barbastro – Resource Crisis, 12/10/2014 – http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com.es/2014/10/peak-oil-is-here-view-from-barbastro.html
     “Antonio Turiel, Kjell Aleklett, David Hughes, Gail Tverberg, Michael Hook, Pedro Prieto. From what they said, it is clear that the future it is not any more a question of arguing about resources and reserves, lining up barrels of oil as if they were pieces to be played on a giant chessboard. It is not any more a question of plotting curves and extrapolating data. No: it is more a question of money. We are not running out of oil, we are running out of the financial resources needed to extract it.”
625. OPEC fiscal breakeven oil price increases 7 % in 2013 – Crude Oil Peak ,14/08/2014 –http://crudeoilpeak.info/opec-fiscal-breakeven-oil-price-increases-7-in-2013
     “Using recent research from the Arab Petroleum Investment Corporation (APIC) it can be calculated that OPEC’s fiscal break-even oil prices have increased by around 7% pa in 2013 while OPEC’s population grows by 10 million every year. The fiscal break-even oil price is the average oil price which is needed for an oil exporting country to balance its budget in a particular year. It is an important metric for a country’s fiscal vulnerability to oil. If the break-even price is higher than the market price budgets cannot be balanced.”
626. Gail Tverberg – Oil Price Slide – No Good Way Out – Our Finite World, 05/11/2014 – http://ourfiniteworld.com/2014/11/05/oil-price-slide-no-good-way-out/
     “We have been hearing for so long that the problem of “peak oil” will be inadequate supply and high prices that we cannot adjust our thinking to the real situation. In fact, the two major problems of oil limits are likely to be shrinking debt and shrinking wages. The reason that oil supply will drop is likely to be because customers cannot afford to pay for it; they don’t have jobs that pay well and they can’t get loans.”
627. James Stafford – The Real Cause Of Low Oil Prices: Interview With Arthur Berman – Oil Price, 04/01/2015 – Editor – http://oilprice.com/Interviews/The-Real-Cause-Of-Low-Oil-Prices-Interview-With-Arthur-Berman.html
     “The current situation with oil price is really very simple. Demand is down because of a high price for too long. Supply is up because of U.S. shale oil and the return of Libya’s production.”
628. Dimitri Orlov – The Sixth Stage of Collapse – Club Orlov, 22/10/2013 – http://cluborlov.blogspot.com.au/2013/10/the-sixth-stage-of-collapse.html
     “Note that no disaster or accident is required in order for this scenario to unfold, just more business as usual. ”
629. Graham M. Turner (2012) – On the cusp of global collapse? Updated comparison of The Limits to Growth with historical data – GAIA – Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society 21:116-124 doi: – CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences – http://www.gaia-online.net/
     “This suggests, from a rational risk-based perspective, that planning for a collapsing global system could be even more important than trying to avoid collapse.”
630. Graham M. Turner (2014) – Is Global Collapse Imminent? An Updated Comparison of The Limits to Growth with Historical Data – Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute Research Papers nº 4 – Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, University of Melbourne – http://www.sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/files/mssi/MSSI-ResearchPaper-4_Turner_2014.pdf
     “Regrettably, the alignment of data trends with the LLDC dynamics indicates that the early stages of collapse could occur within a decade, or might even be underway. This suggests, from a rational risk-based perspective, that we have squandered the past decades, and that preparing for a collapsing global system could be even more important than trying to avoid collapse. ”
631. Charles A.S. Hall and Pedro A. Prieto (2011) – How Much Energy Does Spain’s Solar PV Program Deliver – 3rd Biophysical Economics Conference, 16/04/2011 – http://www.wire1002.ch/fileadmin/user_upload/Documents/Reports/110403_How_much_net_energy_does_the_Spain_s_Solar_PV_program_deliver.pdf
     “EROI (Conventional) = 8.3:1; EROI (with additional direct costs ) = 2.7:1; EROI assuming many technical improvements = 3.5:1; EROI with financial costs +labor included = <2:1”
632. Pedro A. Prieto and Charles A.S. Hall (2013) – Spain’s Photovoltaic Revolution: The Energy Return on Investment – Springer – Telecom Technical Engineer; Professor of Environmental Science, State University of New York, College of Environmental Science and Forestry – ISBN: 978-1-4419-9436-3 – 128 Págs.
633. Oil Sands: Fact sheets – Ninety percent of future oil sands projects at risk from eroding oil price – Carbon Tracker, 16/11/2014 – http://www.neweconomics.org/page/m/2edb50d0/7ebe2ca3/6e1bee18/5d2b290/4008400972/VEsEDQ/
     “Investors in Canadian oil sands are at a heightened risk of wasting $271 billion of funding on projects in the next decade that need high oil prices of more than $95 a barrel to be profitable, the Carbon Tracker Initiative (CTI) revealed today, flagging faltering oil prices.”
634. Julio César Centeno – 2014, probablemente el año más caliente desde que hay registros – Tratar de, 02/01/2015 – Rebelión – http://tratarde.org/2014-probablemente-el-ano-mas-caliente-desde-que-hay-registros-una-sintesis-de-julio-cesar-centeno/
     “Por ahora se registra un aumento de temperatura en la superficie del planeta es de 0.9°C, más un desbalance energético planetario de 330 tera-joules por segundo: el planeta continúa absorbiendo más energía de la que emite a un ritmo alarmante. Esto implica un aumento adicional e inevitable de 0.6°C para restituir el equilibrio energético global.”
635. Tamino – Is Earth’s temperature about to soar? – Open Mind, 09/12/2014 – http://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/12/09/is-earths-temperature-about-to-soar/
     “Let me state the issue I intend to address: whether or not there has even been any verifiable change in the rate of temperature increase — and remember, we’re not talking about the up-and-down fluctuations which happen all the time, and are due to natural factors (they’re also well worth studying), we’re talking about the trend. If there’s no recent change in the trend, then there certainly isn’t a “pause” or “hiatus” in global warming. I’ll also apply a different technique than used in Rahmstorf’s post … Bottom line: not only is there a lack of valid evidence of a slowdown, it’s not even close … I repeat: not only is there a lack of valid evidence of a slowdown, it’s nowhere near even remotely being close. And that goes for each and every one of the 8 data sets tested.”
636. Paul J. Durack et al (2014) – Quantifying underestimates of long-term upper-ocean warming – Nature Climate Change doi:10.1038/nclimate2389 – Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory – 4 authors
     “These adjustments yield large increases (2.2–7.1 × 1022 J 35 yr−1) to current global upper-ocean heat content change estimates, and have important implications for sea level, the planetary energy budget and climate sensitivity assessments.”
637. Science News – Warmest oceans ever recorded – Sceince Daily, 14/11/2014 – University of Hawaii ‑ SOEST – http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/11/141114090009.htm
     “This summer has seen the highest global mean sea surface temperatures ever recorded. Temperatures even exceed those of the record-breaking 1998 El Niño year.”
638. John Cook – Levitus et al. Find Global Warming Continues to Heat the Oceans – Skeptical Science, 25/02/2012 – http://www.skepticalscience.com/levitus-2012-global-warming-heating-oceans.html
     “This heating amounts to 136 trillion Joules per second (Watts), which as Glenn Tramblyn noted in a previous post, is the equivalent of more than two Hiroshima “Little Boy” atomic bomb detonations per second, every second over a 55-year period. And Levitus et al. note that this immense ocean heating has not slowed in recent years – more of it has simply gone into the deeper ocean layers.”
639. John Cook and Dana Nuticcelli – 4 Hiroshima bombs worth of heat per second – Skeptical Science, 01/07/2013 – http://www.skepticalscience.com/4-Hiroshima-bombs-worth-of-heat-per-second.html
     “As this figure shows, there has been no significant slowing in global heat accumulation, contrary to the mythical ‘global warming pause’ … That’s nearly 2 billion atomic bomb detonations worth of heat accumulating in the Earth’s climate system since 1998, when we’re told global warming supposedly ‘paused’. That has to be the worst pause ever.”
640. Mikael Höök et al (2010) – Validity of the fossil fuel production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios – Natural Resources Research 19:63-81 doi:10.1007/s11053-010-9113-1 – Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems, Uppsala University – http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:301406/FULLTEXT01.pdf – 3 authors
     ”The current set, SRES, is biased toward exaggerated resource availability and unrealistic expectations on future production outputs from fossil fuels.”
641. Mikael Höök and Xu Tang (2012) – Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review – Energy Policy doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.10.046 – Uppsala University, Global Energy Systems, Department of Earth Sciences; School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum
     “It is concluded that the current set of emission scenarios used by the IPCC and others is perforated by optimistic expectations on future fossil fuel production that are improbable or even unrealistic.”
642. Gail Tverberg – Oil Limits and Climate Change – How They Fit Together – Our Finite World, 11/04/2014 – http://ourfiniteworld.com/2014/04/11/oil-limits-and-climate-change-how-they-fit-together/
     “One of the big issues is that energy supplies seem to be leaving us, indirectly through economic changes that we have little control over. The IPCC report is written from the opposite viewpoint:  we humans are in charge and need to decide to leave energy supplies. The view is that the economy, despite our energy problems, will return to robust growth. With this robust growth, our big problem will be climate change because of the huge amount of carbon emissions coming from fossil fuel burning. Unfortunately, the real situation is that the laws of physics, rather than humans, are in charge.”
643. Graham M. Turner (2014) – Is Global Collapse Imminent? An Updated Comparison of The Limits to Growth with Historical Data – Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute Research Papers nº 4 – Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, University of Melbourne – http://www.sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/files/mssi/MSSI-ResearchPaper-4_Turner_2014.pdf
     “Somewhat ironically, the apparent corroboration here of the LTG BAU implies that the scientific and public attention given to climate change, whilst tremendously important in its own right, may have deleteriously distracted from the issue of resource constraints, particularly that of oil supply. Indeed, if global collapse occurs as in this LTG scenario then pollution impacts will naturally be resolved— though not in any ideal sense! ”
644. Carlos de Castro Carranza – Expertos asustados y realimentaciones – Grupo de Energía y Dinámica de Sistemas, 28/09/2014 – http://www.eis.uva.es/energiasostenible/?p=2234
     “Los modelos de dinámica de sistemas que hemos trabajado en el Grupo de Energía y Dinámica de Sistemas de la Uva … si al problema energético se le añaden realimentaciones con el caos climático, incluso siendo muy optimistas con una transición renovable rápida y sin tener en cuenta otros problemas y sobrepasamientos, los modelos tienden a dar resultados de colapso.”
645. Carlos de Castro Carranza – Encrucijada climática – Grupo de Energía y Dinámica de Sistemas, 03/11/2014 – http://www.eis.uva.es/energiasostenible/?p=2343
     “Entonces la inercia nos llevará primero a abandonar las ciudades y regresar al campo, a cultivar y sobrevivir donde está la riqueza real: la tierra. Y si el colapso es duro, usaremos la biomasa como combustible para casi todo; y entonces la deforestación que hoy se da sobre todo en zonas tropicales la veremos de nuevo en el resto del mundo, y seguiremos, hasta que baje la población, viendo como las emisiones por el cambio del uso de la tierra siguen aumentando y como la desertización y la pérdida de especies vivas siguen aumentando. O al menos, habrá que combatir también esas previsibles tendencias.”
646. Jared Diamond (2005) – Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Survive – Viking Penguin – ISBN-13: 978-0-140-27951-1 – 576 Págs.
     “The process through which past societies have undermined themselves by damaging their environments fall into eight categories, whose relative importance differs from case to case: deforestation and habitat destruction; soil problems (erosion, salinization and soil fertility loses); water management problems; over-hunting; over-fishing; effects of introduced effects on native species; human population growth and increased per capita impact on people. Those past collapses tended to follow somewhat similar courses … The environmental problems facing us today include the same eight that undermined past societies, plus four new ones: human-caused climate change; build-up of toxic chemicals in the environment; energy shortages; and full human utilization of the Earth’s photosynthetic capacity.”
647. Ian Joughin et al (2014) – Marine Ice Sheet Collapse Potentially Underway for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica – Science 344:735-738 doi:10.1126/science.1249055 – Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Lab, University of Washington – 3 autores
     “Except possibly for the lowest-melt scenario, the simulations indicate early-stage collapse has begun. Less certain is the timescale, with onset of rapid (> 1 mm per year of sea-level rise) collapse for the different simulations within the range of two to nine centuries.”
648. Beata M. Csatho et al (2014) – Laser altimetry reveals complex pattern of Greenland Ice Sheet dynamics – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1411680112 – Department of Geology, University at Buffalo – http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/12/12/1411680112.full.pdf+html – 10 autores
     “The large spatial and temporal variations of dynamic mass loss and widespread intermittent thinning indicate the complexity of ice sheet response to climate forcing, strongly enforcing the need for continued monitoring at high spatial resolution and for improving numerical ice sheet models.”
649. Eric Rignot – Global warming: it’s a point of no return in West Antarctica. What happens next? – The Guardian, 17/05/2014 – NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory – http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/17/climate-change-antarctica-glaciers-melting-global-warming-nasa
     “We announced that we had collected enough observations to conclude that the retreat of ice in the Amundsen sea sector of West Antarctica was unstoppable, with major consequences – it will mean that sea levels will rise one metre worldwide. What’s more, its disappearance will likely trigger the collapse of the rest of the West Antarctic ice sheet, which comes with a sea level rise of between three and five metres. Such an event will displace millions of people worldwide.”
650. S. Famiglietti (2014) – The global groundwater crisis – Nature Climate Change 4:945–948 doi:10.1038/nclimate2425 – NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology + Department of Earth System Science, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California
     “Groundwater depletion the world over poses a far greater threat to global water security than is currently acknowledged.”
651. Florence Noiville (2009) – Soy economista y os pido disculpas – Libros PAPF – ISBN: 978-84-234-2843-4 – 94 Págs.
     “’No es culpa mía, es el sistema’ … ¿Cómo pueden decir que no tienen el control? … ¿No es angustioso ver este formidable potencial de inteligencias y de medios tan impotente ante la forma en que evoluciona el curso de las cosas?”
652. Angel Gurría – The climate challenge: Achieving zero emissions – OECD, 09/10/2013 – OECD Secretary-General – http://www.oecd.org/about/secretary-general/The-climate-challenge-achieving-zero-emissions.htm
     “We are in a collision course with nature.”
653. James Hansen – Assuring Real Progress on Climate – Columbia University, 23/12/2014 – http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2014/20141223_AssuringRealProgress.pdf
     “Quantitative data aid assessment. Figure 1 updates graphs of our paper (Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”). Global fossil fuel emissions have increased ~3% per year this century.”
654. Fritjof Capra and Pier Luigi Luisi (2014) – The Systems View of Life: A Unifying Vision – Cambridge University Press – Center for Ecoliteracy, Berkeley – ISBN-13: 978-1107011366 – 978 Págs.
     “Critical theorists do not want simply to explain the world. Their ultima task, according to Habermas, is to uncover the structural conditions of people’s actions and to help the trascend these conditions. Critical theory deals with power and is aimed at emancipation.” (p. 300)
655. Humberto R. Maturana and Francisco J. Varela (1980) – Autopoiesis and Cognition: The Realization of the Living – D. Reidel Publishing Company – ISBN-13: 978-9027710161 – 171 Págs.
656. Mike C. Jackson (2006) Mike C. Jackson (2006) – Critical systems thinking: beyond the fragments – System Dynamics Review 10:159-174 – Professor of Management Systems + Centre for Systems Studies + School of Management, University of Hull
     “As part of their studies on autopoiesis, for example, Maturana and Varela (1980) have concluded that cognition is an organizationally closed system and that therefore we must give up any claim to have direct access to the phenomena around us. Objectivity is therefore “bracketed” and attention turns to the observing system. ”
657. Werner Ulrich (1998) – Systems Thinking as if People Mattered: Critical Systems Thinking for Citizens and Managers – Working Paper No. 23, Lincoln School of Managment, University of Lincolnshire & Humberside – University of Fribourg, Switzerland, and The Open University, United Kingdom – http://www.oocities.org/csh_home/downloads/ulrich_1998c.pdf
     “Critical systems thinking has a potential of giving citizens a new sense of competence, and that this new.”
658. Mike C. Jackson (2006) – Critical systems thinking: beyond the fragments – System Dynamics Review 10:159-174 – Professor of Management Systems + Centre for Systems Studies + School of Management, University of Hull
     “During the 1980s it was not exactly that things went backward-important work continued in each of the specialities, and emancipatory systems thinking established itself as a strand in its own right … In these circumstances it is perhaps not so surprising, but nevertheless very fortunate, that another strand of systems thinking, developed in the 1980s, took it as its main task to consider the strengths and weaknesses of the various systems approaches available and to think through the relations between different systems methodologies.”
659. Mike C. Jackson (2006) – Critical systems thinking: beyond the fragments – System Dynamics Review 10:159-174 – Professor of Management Systems + Centre for Systems Studies + School of Management, University of Hull
     “Emancipatory systems thinking was born in the 1980s of the recognition by systems thinkers that participants in social situations can sometimes be seen as in a coercive relationship to one another, so that the only consensus that can be achieved is through the exercise of power and domination (overt or more or less concealed) by one or more groups of participants over others.”
660. Werner Ulrich (2003) – A Brief Introduction to Critical Systems Thinking for Professionals & Citizens – Werner Ulrich – The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK – http://www.wulrich.com/cst_brief.html
     “The challenge is to develop the didactic means that will allow us to explain to citizens the meaning and importance of systematic boundary critique, and to train them in identifying and using boundary judgments for the purpose of critical reflection, debate, and argumentation.”
661. Werner Ulrich (2000) – Reflective Practice in the Civil Society: The Contribution of Critically Systemic Thinking – Reflective Practice 1:247-268 – Visiting Professor of Critical Systems Thinking, Lincoln School of Management, University of Lincolnshire & Humberside – http://www.wulrich.com/downloads/ulrich_2000a.pdf
     “In a civil society, the ultimate source of legitimacy lies with the citizen; hence a reflective professional practice that is grounded in an adequate concept of civil society should give citizens a meaningful, and competent, role to play. Reflective practice, then, depends on competent citizenship.”
662. Werner Ulrich (2003) – Pragmatizing Critical Systems Thinking for Professionals and Citizens – Werner Ulrich, 16/08/2004 – The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK – http://www.wulrich.com/downloads/ulrich_2003a.pdf
     “I believe that CST has a potential to give new meaning to the concept of citizenship, by enabling all of us to become more competent citizens. My question is, how can we harvest this potential? I propose that the way in which we seek to answer this question might constitute an important test for the methodological viability and validity of critical systems thinking. ”
663. Alexander Laszlo and Stanley Krippner (1998) – Systems Theories: Their Origins, Foundations, and Development – En: J.S. Jordan (Ed.), Systems Theories and A Priori Aspects of Perception. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, 1998. Cap 3:47-74 – http://archive.syntonyquest.org/elcTree/resourcesPDFs/SystemsTheory.pdf
     “The meta-methodology serves as the basis for the generation of a new methodology that critically applies various systems approaches to problem solving. In doing so, critical systems thinking pursues five areas of commitment: 1) critical awareness, 2) social awareness, 3) complementarism at the methodology level, 4) complementarism at the theory level, and 5) human emancipation. ”
664. Peter M. Senge (1990) – The Fifth Discipline: the Art and Practice of the Learning Organization – Doubleday Currency – Center for Organizational Learning at MIT’s Sloan School of Management – ISBN 0-385-26095-4 – 412 Págs. – http://www.4grantwriters.com/Peter_Senge_The_Fifth_Discipline_1_1_.pdf
     “In general, balancing loops are more difficult to see than reinforcing loops because it often looks like nothing is happening.”
665. Donnella Meadows, Jørgen Randers, Dennis Meadows (2004) – Los Límites del crecimiento: 30 años después – Galaxia Gutenberg – Massachusetts Institute of Technology – ISBN: 8481096016 – 514 Págs.
     “Si los objetivos implícitos de una sociedad consisten en explotar la naturaleza, enriquecer a las élites y hacer caso omiso de las perspectivas a largo plazo, entonces esa sociedad desarrollará tecnologías y mercados que destruyen el medio ambiente, ensanchan la distancia entre pobres y ricos y optimizan las ganancias a corto plazo. En pocas palabras, esa sociedad desarrollará tecnologías y mercados que aceleran el colapso en lugar de prevenirlo.” (p. 355)
666. Jack Harich (2010) – Change resistance as the crux of the environmental sustainability problem – System Dynamics Review 26:35–72 doi:10.1002/sdr.431 – Systems engineer, Thwink.org – http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/sdr.431/pdf
     “Until the “implicit system goal” causing systemic change resistance is found and resolved, change efforts to solve the proper coupling part of the sustainability problem are, as Senge argues, ‘doomed to failure.’.”
667. Jack Harich (2010) – Change resistance as the crux of the environmental sustainability problem – System Dynamics Review 26:35–72 doi:10.1002/sdr.431 – Systems engineer, Thwink.org – http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/sdr.431/pdf
     “Therefore opposition to solving common good problems with high certainty (a component of high Symptoms Understanding) cannot be based on the truth, because solving these problems is desirable to society as a whole. Therefore selfish special interests must depend on deception.”
668. Robert J. Brulle (2014) – Institutionalizing delay: foundation funding and the creation of U.S. climate change counter-movement organizations – Climatic Change 122:681-694 doi:10.1007/s10584-013-1018-7 – Drexel University – http://www.drexel.edu/~/media/Files/now/pdfs/Institutionalizing Delay – Climatic Change.ashx
     “This results in a data sample that contains financial information for the time period 2003 to 2010 on the annual income of 91 CCCM organizations funded by 140 different foundations. An examination of these data shows that these 91 CCCM organizations have an annual income of just over $900 million, with an annual average of $64 million in identifiable foundation support. The overwhelming majority of the philanthropic support comes from conservative foundations. Additionally, there is evidence of a trend toward concealing the sources of CCCM funding through the use of donor directed philanthropies.”
669. Jack Harich (2010) – Change resistance as the crux of the environmental sustainability problem – System Dynamics Review 26:35–72 doi:10.1002/sdr.431 – Systems engineer, Thwink.org – http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/sdr.431/pdf
     “The model shows how those promoting their own agenda with deception effectiveness have found a way to make history run backward. They have found a way to reliably fool most people into acting against their own best interests, creating a sort of Age of Unreason, whose ultimate end is rapidly becoming mass ecocide … But history could move forward again if we could push on the related high leverage point of general ability to detect manipulative deception (not shown). ”
670. Paul R. Ehrlich and John P. Holdren (1971) – Impact of Population Growth – Science 171:1212-1217 doi:10.1126/science.171.3977.1212 – Stanford University; Radiation Laboratory, University of California – http://faculty.washington.edu/stevehar/Ehrlich.pdf – authors
     “In connection with the five theorems elaborated here, we have dealt at length with the notion that population growth in industrial nations such as the United States is a minor factor, safely ignored … The desperate and repressive measures for population control which might be contemplated [20 years hence] are reason in themselves to prceed with foresight, alacrity, and compassion today.”
671. James G. Speth (1992) – The transition to a sustainable society – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 889:870–872 doi:10.1073/pnas.89.3.870 – World Resources Institute – http://www.pnas.org/content/89/3/870.full.pdf
     “Transitions in dealing with the root causes of environmental problems are advocated to achieve environmental sustainability. These transformations include (0) a demographic transition, (ii) a technology transition that includes the green automobile, (iii) an economic transition to one in which prices reflect full environmental costs, (iv) a transition in social equity, and (v) an institutional transition to different arrangements among governments, businesses, and peoples.”
672. Jack Harich (2010) – Change resistance as the crux of the environmental sustainability problem – System Dynamics Review 26:35–72 doi:10.1002/sdr.431 – Systems engineer, Thwink.org – http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/sdr.431/pdf
     “But it’s more accurate to see it as a root cause of improper coupling. If the goals of the corporate life form and humans were not mutually exclusive, then the economic system (which corporations dominate) would be properly coupled to the human system and hence the environment. The related high leverage point is the rules of the game for the dominant agent in the system. ”
673. Samuel Alexander (2014) – A Critique of Techno-Optimism: Efficiency without Sufficiency is Lost – Melbourne Sustainability Institute Working Paper – Post Carbon Pathways project – http://www.sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/files/mssi/PostCarbonPathways_WP1_Alexander_Critique-of-Techno-Optimism_2014.pdf
     “The central problem is that in a growth-orientated economy, efficiency gains are almost always reinvested into increasing production and consumption, not reducing them. These rebound effects have meant that the overall impact of economies tends to increase, even though technology has produced many efficiency gains in production.“
674. Jack Harich (2010) – Change resistance as the crux of the environmental sustainability problem – System Dynamics Review 26:35–72 doi:10.1002/sdr.431 – Systems engineer, Thwink.org – http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/sdr.431/pdf
     “As radical as the above may seem, it pales in comparison to what it took to solve the age-old problem of the arbitrary and often horrific rule of dictators, kings, warlords, despots and other oppressive rulers. The solution was inconceivable long ago but is intuitively obvious today: the addition of the voter feedback loop. This could also be called the ruler benevolence feedback loop. Is the system missing the corporate benevolence feedback loop? ”
675. Christian Felber (2012) – La economía del bien común: Un modelo económico que supera la dicotomía entre capitalismo y comunismo – Deusto – ISBN-13: 978-8423412808
676. Jack Harich (2010) – Change resistance as the crux of the environmental sustainability problem – System Dynamics Review 26:35–72 doi:10.1002/sdr.431 – Systems engineer, Thwink.org – http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/sdr.431/pdf
     “We’ve not found a measurement of general political deception to prove this assertion, but observe system behavior: Think back to any important political decision, whether it was who to elect, what position to support, which party to support, or even what long-term values people should adopt.”
677. Ben Stein – In Class Warfare, Guess Which Class Is Winning – The New York Times, 26/11/2006 – http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/26/business/yourmoney/26every.html
     “Even though I agreed with him, I warned that whenever someone tried to raise the issue, he or she was accused of fomenting class warfare. ‘There’s class warfare, all right,’ Mr. Buffett said, “but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.”
678. Clive Hamilton (2013) – Earthmasters: The Dawn of the Age of Climate Engineering – Yale University Press – Professor of Public Ethics, Charles Sturt University – ISBN-13: 978-0300186673 – 264 Págs.
     “If forms of denial structure the interpretation of a problem, they will also frame thinking about the solution to it.” (p. 85)
679. James J. Rooney and Lee N. Vanden Heuvel (2004) – Root Cause Analysis for Beginners – Quality Progress, 01/07/2004 – http://asq.org/quality-progress/2004/07/quality-tools/root-cause-analysis-for-beginners.html
     “Root cause analysis (RCA) is a tool to help identify what, how, and why an event occurred so that steps can be taken to prevent future occurrences. Additionally, RCA may be used to target opportunities for systemwide improvement.”
680. Simon Kuznets (1934) – National Income, 1929–1932 – 73rd US Congress, 2nd session, Senate document no. 124 – Chief of Staff, National Bureau of Economic Research
     “The welfare of a nation [can] scarcely be inferred from a measure of national income.”
681. Sharon Beder (1995) – SLAPPs – Strategic Lawsuits Against Public Participation: Coming to a Controversy Near You – Current Affairs Bulletin 72:22-29 – http://herinst.org/sbeder/SLAPPs/SLAPPS.html
     “Of course lawsuits are not the only way to dissuade healthy debate on issues of importance.[ref] Litigation is however increasingly utilised to intimidate people who cannot be influenced through pressure from employers or professional associations.”
682. Sharon Beder (1997, 2002) – Global Spin: The Corporate Assault on Environmentalism – Green Books – Professional engineer, School of Social Sciences, Media and Communication,University of Wollongong – ISBN 0- 908011-44-X – 320 Págs. – http://www.prwatch.org/prwissues/1998Q3/beder.html
     “Frank Mankievwicz, Hill & Knowlton senior executive: ‘I think the companies will have to give in only at insignificant levels. Because the companies are too strong, they’re the establishment. The environmentalists are going to have to be like the mob in the square in Romania before they prevail.”
683. Sharon Beder (2006) – Free Market Missionaries: The Corporate Manipulation of Community Values – Earthscan – School of Social Sciences, Media and Communication, University of Wollongong – ISBN: 9781844073344 – 272 Págs.
684. Sharon Beder (2006) – Suiting Themselves: How Corporations Drive the Global Agenda – Routledge – School of Social Sciences, Media and Communication,University of Wollongong – ISBN-13: 978-1616146641 – 272 Págs.
685. David Miller and William Dinan (2008) – A Century of Spin. How Public Relations Became the Cutting Edge of Corporate Power – Pluto Books London – Department of Geography and Sociology, University of Strathclyde – ISBN: 978-0-7453-2689-4 – 232 Págs.
     “The Economic League … Propaganda: Crusade for Capitalism … Speakers were selected not only because of their aptitude for discussing economic problems in simple terms but also for their ability to make themselves heard and deal with violent opposition. They were big men in every sense of the word… There can be little doubt that this was not a campaign based on arguments and ideas alone.”
686. Stuard Ewen (1996) – PR! A Social History of Spin – Basic Books – ISBN: 0-465-06268-0 – 480 Págs.
     “Nayirah was, in fact, Nayirah al-Sabah, daughter of the Kuwaiti ambassador to the United States … Beyond the dubiousness of her tale, it also turned out that the Meeting of the Congressional Human Rights Caucus itself had been the brainchild of Gary Hymel, a vice-president of Hill and Knowlton, one of the largest public relations firms in the world… Hymel and Hill & Knowlton were on the payroll of the Kuwaiti royal family.”
687. Nick Davies (2008) – Flat Earth News – Random House – ISBN-13: 978-0701181451 – 408 Págs. – http://www.flatearthnews.net
     “Everyone should read the truth behind some of the most controversial and distorted stories of the last decade.”
688. Ignacio Muro Benayas – La quiebra del “pensamiento único” (y el papel de los medios en la crisis) – El Huffington Post, 19/10/2012 – Economistas frente a la crisis – http://www.huffingtonpost.es/ignacio-muro-benayas/la-quiebra-del-pensamient_b_1964724.html
     “El acrónimo PIGS es relanzado en 2008 por Newsweek, Wall Street Journal y Financial Times, precisamente cuando se pretende sacar de foco, como causa de la crisis, a los productos tóxicos emitidos desde EE UU y comercializados por los bancos de Alemania, Holanda e Inglaterra, en donde permanecen en sus balances. El uso del acrónimo se multiplica por tres entre 2008 y 2010 y desborda la red … en un juego de profecías autocumplidas.”
689. Edward L. Bernays (1926, 1955) – Propaganda – Horace LiveRight New York
     “Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. In almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons … who pull the wires which control the public mind.”
690. Adolf Hitler (1926) – Mein Kampf – Jaico Publishing House – ISBN-13: 978-8172241643 – 524 Págs.
     “In the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility… It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. Even though the facts which prove this to be so may be brought clearly to their minds, they will still doubt and waver and will continue to think that there may be some other explanation.”
691. Londa Schiebinger and Robert Proctor (2005) – Agnotology: The Making and Unmaking of Ignorance – Stanford University Press
     “Why don’t we know what we don’t know? The none too-complex answer in many instances was ‘because steps have been taken to keep you in the dark!’ We rule you, if we can fool you.” (p. 11)
692. Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway (2010) – Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming – Bloomsbury New York – Professor of History Science Studies Program University of California; National Aeronautics and Space Administration – http://climatecontroversies.ulb.ac.be/wp-content/uploads/slides/oreskes.pdf
     “Hayek was wrong about the road to serfdom – Predicted that if Labour came to power in U.K. and instituted social democracy, it would lead to fascism.   – On the contrary, virtually every major western European country after World War II instituted some form of social  democracy, and none of them became fascistic.”
693. John Stauber and Sheldon Rampton (1995) – Toxic Sludge Is Good For You. Lies, Damn Lies and the Public Relations Industry – Common Courage Press – ISBN 1-56751-060-4 – 236 Págs.
     “The public relations industry… carefully cultivates activists who can be coopted into working against the goals of their movement. This strategy has been outlined in detail by Ronald Duchin, senior vice-president of PR spy firm Mongoven, Biscoe and Duchin [MBD]. … In a 1991 speech to the National Cattlemen’s Association, he described how MBD works to divide and conquer activist movements.”
694. John Jos. Miller (2005) – A Gift of Freedom: How the John M. Olin Foundation Changed America – Encounter Books – Writer for ‘National Review’ and contributing editor of ‘Philanthropy’ – ISBN-13: 978-1594031175 – 200 Págs.
     “The foundation spent hundreds of millions of dollars fostering what its longtime president William E. Simon called the “counterintelligentsia” to offset liberal dominance of university faculties and the mainstream media and to make conservatism a significant cultural force.”
695. David Edwards (1997) – Global Spin – The Ecologist 27:251-252 – Author of Free to be Human – http://www.herinst.org/sbeder/reviews/ecologist2.html
     “The stubborn few who refuse to ‘sit down and take it like a consumer’ can be hit with “Strategic Lawsuits against Public Participation”, or SLAPPS. The aim of SLAPPing protesters is to sue them for defamation, injury, conspiracy, etc., not in order to win the case, but so as to bring victims to the point where they “are no longer able to find the financial, emotional, or mental wherewithal to sustain their defence,” or, indeed, their protest. If all else fails, environmentalists can be brought on board. Stauber and Rampton, who edit PR Watch, note that hiring dissenters is a “crude but effective way to derail potentially meddlesome activists.”
696. David Miller and William Dinan (2008) – A Century of Spin. How Public Relations Became the Cutting Edge of Corporate Power – Pluto Books London – ISBN: 978-0-7453-2689-4 – 232 Págs.
     “Colonel Hugh Pollard, as he later became, turned up again in right wing ‘diehard’ circles in 1936 when he flew from Croydon airport on a Dragon Rapide light aircraft to the Canary Islands. He and his collaborators were on a mission in which they picked up General Francisco Franco in the Canary Islands, and flew him to Spain to launch his murderous coup against the republican government. Accompanying him was Toby O’Brien, a leading lobbyist and Conservative Party spin doctor in the post-1945 period.”
697. Edward L. Bernays (1947) – The Engineering of Consent – The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 250:113-120 – https://wiki.zirve.edu.tr/sandbox/groups/economicsandadministrativesciences/wiki/5aab6/attachments/f2765/Engineering_of_Consent_-_Edaward_Barnays.pdf
     “Knowledge of how to use this enormous amplifying system becomes a matter of primary concern to those who are interested in socially constructive action. There are two main divisions of this communications system which maintain social cohesion … The engineering of consent is the very essence of the democratic process, the freedom to persuade and suggest.”
698. Noam Chomsky – Can civilization survive capitalism? – Nation of Change, 08/03/2013 – http://www.nationofchange.org/can-civilization-survive-capitalism-1362758281
     “The truncated democracy that Dewey condemned has been left in tatters in recent years. Now control of government is narrowly concentrated at the peak of the income scale, while the large majority “down below” has been virtually disenfranchised. The current political-economic system is a form of plutocracy, diverging sharply from democracy, if by that concept we mean political arrangements in which policy is significantly influenced by the public will.”
699. Philip Mirowski and Dieter Plehwe (Eds.) (2009) – The Road from Mont Pelerin: The Making of the Neoliberal Thought Collective – Harvard University Press – University of Notre Dame – ISBN-13: 978-0674033184 – 480 Págs.
     “Much like welfare state capitalism during the postwar era of Fordism, hegemonic neoliberalism needs to be thought as a plural in terms of both political philosophy and political practice.”
700. Lance Bennett and Robert M. Entman (2000) – Mediated Politics: Communication in the Future of Democracy – Cambridge University Press – Professor of Political Science + Ruddick C. Lawrence Professor of Communication, University of Washington; M.C. Shapiro Professor of Media and Public Affairs + Professor of International Affairs at The George Washington University – ISBN-13: 978-0521783569 – 520 Págs.
     “[T]he history of politics and public opinion in this century can be written in terms of the uses of often deceptive public relations techniques to ‘engineer consent’ among the governed.” (p. 282)
701. Antonio García-Olivares (2014) – Energía renovable, fin del crecimiento y post-capitalismo – The Oil Crash, 17/03/2014 – http://crashoil.blogspot.com.es/2014/03/mas-alla-del-capitalismo.html
     “La tendencia de la tasa de beneficio a caer (TPRF) fue anunciada por Marx como una consecuencia inevitable a largo plazo del funcionamiento normal del capitalismo, y su validez general parece discutible. Sin embargo, para el caso particular de un PIB que no crece, el teorema parece satisfacerse, y ello puede tener consecuencias muy graves para el capitalismo.”
702. Graham Turner and Cathy Alexander – Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we’re nearing collapse – The Guardian, 02/09/2014 – http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/limits-to-growth-was-right-new-research-shows-were-nearing-collapse
     “It may be too late to convince the world’s politicians and wealthy elites to chart a different course. So to the rest of us, maybe it’s time to think about how we protect ourselves as we head into an uncertain future.”
703. Naomi Klein (2014) – This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The Climate – Penguin Random House – – ISBN 978-0-307-40199-1 – 566 Págs. – https://pdf.yt/d/Skb-ch_k7psDm90Q
     “Only social mass movements can save us now.” (p. 450)
704. Emilio Cerdá (2007) – Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers y Dennis Meadows: Los límites del crecimiento 30 años después – Fundación Sistema, 01/09/2007 – Universidad Complutense de Madrid – http://www.fundacionsistema.com/media/PDF/PPios9_Meadows.pdf
     “Partiendo directamente del análisis estructural del sistema mundial realizado, los autores señalan que para acercar nuestro mundo hacia un sistema sostenible hay que avanzar en las siguientes direcciones: … Reclama, simple pero profundamente, una visión más amplia y satisfactoria de la finalidad de la existencia humana que la mera expansión y acumulación material» (págs. 407 a 409).”
705. Marcin Popkiewicz – Free computer game – World at the Crossroads – Skeptical Science, 11/11/2013 – http://www.skepticalscience.com/World-At-The-Crossroads.html –
     “The game simulates the rise of the industrial civilization, from 1900 to 2200. You can look at it as a model of The Limits to Growth … converted into a strategy game. The game helps understand systems dynamics and complex interactions between Earth and human civilization.”
706. World at the Crossroads – manual – ASPO Polska, 11/11/2014 – http://ziemianarozdrozu.pl/apps/WorldAtCrossroads/WorldAtCrossroads-QuickIntroduction.pdf
     “The game ‘World at the Crossroads’ simulates the rise of the industrial civilization, from 1900 to 2200. It can be perceived as a model of The Limits to Growth, commissioned by the Club of Rome in 1972, converted into a strategy game that helps understand systems dynamics and complex interactions between Earth and human civilization. ”
707. Blake Alcott (2012) – Population matters in ecological economics – Ecological Economics 80:109–120 doi:10.1016/0921-8009(92)90035-Q – 33 Albert Street, Cambridge
     “The concept of cultural carrying capacity would aid societies in determining their optimal population when account is taken not only of subsistence, but of quality of life. A population-control toolkit for both rich and poor societies is sketched, and some controversial, ‘coercive’ policy possibilities analysed.”
708. Samuel Alexander (2014) – A Critique of Techno-Optimism: Efficiency without Sufficiency is Lost – Melbourne Sustainability Institute Working Paper – Post Carbon Pathways project – http://www.sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/files/mssi/PostCarbonPathways_WP1_Alexander_Critique-of-Techno-Optimism_2014.pdf
     “As it turned out, the IPAT equation ended up marginalising population and consumption as sites of environmental action, and privileging technological fixes (see Huesemann and Huesemann, 2011).”
709. Blake Alcott (2010) – Impact caps: why population, affluence and technology strategies should be abandoned – Journal of Cleaner Production 18:552–560 doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2009.08.001 – School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds – authors
     “This has two consequences: 1) Since I = PAT does not express these interdependencies on the right side, it is more accurately written I = f(P,A,T); and 2) Success in lowering any of the right-side factors does not necessarily lower Impact.”
710. Joan David Tàbara et al (2012) – Transformative targets in sustainability policy-making: The case of the 30% EU mitigation goal – Journal of Environmental Planning and Management 1-12 doi:10.1080/09640568.2012.716365 – Global Climate Forum + and Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, Autonomous University of Barcelona – 6 authors
     “Thus, the ‘economy’ can simply be understood as a set of a particular type of interactions involving a set of agents in the broader context of a global system – thus following open and often unpredictable dynamics and prone to unexpected behaviours. This is opposed to the view of the economy as a closed system, which necessarily tends towards only single equilibrium. ”
711. David Tàbara and Dough Miller (2011) – Reframing public opinion on climate change – En: Carlo C. Jaeger et al (Eds.) (2011) – Reframing the problem of climate change – Earthscan – Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, Autonomous University of Barcelona
712. David Tàbara and Ilan Chabay (2012) – Coupling Human Information and Knowledge Systems with social-ecological systems change: reframing research, education, and policy for sustainability – Environmental Science and Policy doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2012.11.005 – Institute of Environmental Science and Technology of the Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB) + Global Climate Forum; Institute of Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam + Helmholtz Alliance at the University of Stuttgart
     “To a great extent, the most pressing difficulties that science now confronts when trying to provide valid knowledge to cope with global problems of unsustain-ability are not purely ‘scientific’, or at least not in the traditional sense. They relate to a number of assumptions, beliefs and values that scientists use to construct their models and theories and generate their results (which often produce analyses relevant only to their own disciplines).”
713. Óscar Carpintero (2005) – El metabolismo de la economía española. Recursos naturales y huella ecológica (1955-2000) – Fundación César Manrique – https://es.scribd.com/doc/51906647/Carpintero-metabolismo-Espana
     “José Manuel Naredo: El presente libro de Óscar Carpintero da un paso de gigante en la clarificación de los problemas ecológico-ambientales que plantea la economía española.”
714. Manuel Casal Lodeiro – Nosotros, los detritívoros – Detritívoros, 30/06/2014 – https://radi.ms/es/nosotros-los-detritivoros/?format=pdf
     “Si tenemos que empezar esa liberación por algún punto debería ser por la base de todo este colosal error de nuestra especie: si queremos tener alguna oportunidad de evitar el destino de los detritívoros, no queda otra que dejar con la máxima urgencia de comer petróleo.”
715. Jean Gadrey, Florent Marcellesi y Borja Barragué (2013) – Adiós al crecimiento. Vivir bien en un mundo solidario y sostenible – El Viejo Topo – ISBN-13: 978-8415216452 – 226 Págs
716. Alexander Laszlo and Stanley Krippner (1998) – Systems Theories: Their Origins, Foundations, and Development – En: J.S. Jordan (Ed.), Systems Theories and A Priori Aspects of Perception. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, 1998. Cap 3:47-74 – http://archive.syntonyquest.org/elcTree/resourcesPDFs/SystemsTheory.pdf
     “The specialized approach has created an orientation toward decision making that is currently in vogue in many parts of the world. It is based on individualism, competition, training for a specific profession, and indoctrination into a specific culture. On the other hand, the general systems approach encourages the development of a global, more unitary consciousness, team work, collaboration, learning for life, and exposure to the universal storehouse of accumulated knowledge and wisdom.”
717. Noam Miller et al (2013) – Both information and social cohesion determine collective decisions in animal groups – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1217513110 – Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University – 4 autores
     “The mechanism of collective intelligence demonstrated here does not require individuals to be aware of the diversity of information in the group … the collective intelligence exhibited by groups emerges naturally from diversity of information and from the simple interaction rules used by individuals.”
718. Thomas W. Malone and Mark Klein (2007) – Harnessing Collective Intelligence to Address Global Climate Change – Innovations 2:15-26 doi:10.1162/itgg.2007.2.3.15 – MIT Center for Collective Intelligence; Principal Research Scientist at the MIT Center for Center for Collective Intelligence
     “If we could build it, our societal conversation about global warming could go beyond the realm of the all-too-often emotionally-driven yes/no votes about small numbers of simplified alternatives. It could, instead, facilitate reasoned and evidence-based collective decision-making about highly complex issues.”
719. Robert J. Lempert (2002) – A new decision sciences for complex systems – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 99:7309-7313 doi:10.1073/pnas.082081699 – RAND Corporation
     ”This article describes Computer-Assisted Reasoning, an approach to decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty that is ideally suited to applying complex systems to policy analysis. The article demonstrates the approach on the policy problem of global climate change, with a particular focus on the role of technology policies in a robust, adaptive strategy for greenhouse gas abatement.”
720. Thomas W. Malone – Centro de Inteligencia Colectiva del Massachusetts Institute of Technology – Visitado 16/12/2014 – Patrick McGovern Professor of Management, MIT Sloan School of Management – http://mitsloan.mit.edu/faculty/research/intelligence.php
     “Our basic research question is: How can people and computers be connected so that – collectively – they act more intelligently than any individuals, groups, or computers have ever done before?”
721. Xiaogang Ma et al (2014) – Capturing provenance of global change information – Nature Climate Change 4:409-413 doi:10.1038/nclimate2141 – Tetherless World Constellation, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute – 5 autores
     “Global change information demands access to data sources and well-documented provenance to provide the evidence needed to build confidence in scientific conclusions and decision making. A new generation of web technology, the Semantic Web, provides tools for that purpose.”
722. Ervin László – Wikipedia, 18/03/2012 – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ervin_László
     “This would be by the linking of non-government organizations promoting sustainable development, using the Internet.[ref] A Macroshift is defined as a popular movement to turn the tide from a global breakdown to a global breakthrough. László sees the years 2012-2020 as a critical period to change course as the coming crisis is taking shape in geopolitical current. ”
723. Giorgos Kallis (2011) – Decreixement sostenible i (re) radicalització de l’ambientalisme – Nous Horitzons 202:34-42 – Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals
     “En una economia estacionària, sense creixement o amb decreixement, en suma, moltes coses funcionarien de maneres molt diferents que difícilment som avui capaços d’imaginar. Cal tenir l’esperit molt obert per copsar les tendències possibles, els possibles canvis de mentalitat i de valors, i educar-nos en una adaptabilitat que ens permeti evitar els traumes i conflictes que inevitablement es produiran.”
724. Donnella Meadows, Jørgen Randers, Dennis Meadows (2004) – Los Límites del crecimiento: 30 años después – Galaxia Gutenberg – Massachusetts Institute of Technology
     “¿Cuáles son estos instrumentos … [acientíficos]? Son éstos: visión, coordinación, verdad, aprendizaje y amor.” (p. 421)
725. Pascual Serrano Jiménez (2013) – Desinformación: Cómo los medios ocultan el mundo – Booket – Periodista especializado en política internacional y análisis de los medios de comunicación. Fundador de Rebelión en 1996 – ISBN-13: 978-8499422527 – 720 Págs.
726. Pascual Serrano Jiménez (2012) – Traficantes de información – Foca, Ediciones y Distribuciones Generales S.L. – Periodista especializado en política internacional y análisis de los medios de comunicación. Fundador de Rebelión en 1996
727. Pascual Serrano Jiménez (2013) – La comunicación jibarizada – Atalaya, Ediciones Península – Periodista especializado en política internacional y análisis de los medios de comunicación. Fundador de Rebelión en 1996
728. Pascual Serrano Jiménez (2013) – Periodismo canalla: Los medios contra la información – Icaria editorial – Periodista especializado en política internacional y análisis de los medios de comunicación. Fundador de Rebelión en 1996
729. David Edwards and David Cromwell, Media Lens (2006) – Guardians of Power. The Myth of the Liberal Media – Pluto Press – Median Lens – ISBN: 978-0-7453-2482-1 – 241 Págs. – http://www.scribd.com/doc/16154364/Guardians-of-Power-The-Myth-of-Liberal-Media
     “Adverts promoting endlessly rising mass consumption on which all the quality press depend for 75% of their revenue. ‘Doing something’ should mean taking on exactly these corporate interests; exactly these materialist versions of life, liberty and happiness. ‘Doing something’, in fact, means taking on corporate interests like the Guardian newspaper.”
730. David Cromwell (2012) – Why Are We the Good Guys? Reclaiming Your Mind from the Delusions of Propaganda – Zero Books – ISBN-13: 978-1780993652 – 329 Págs.
     “Here are eight key issues that are not being discussed at length by ‘mainstream’ politicians, academia and the media: …”
731. Eric D. Schneider y Oriol Sagan (2005) – La Termodinámica de la Vida – Tusquets Editores – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminsitration – ISBN-13: 978-84-8383-052-9 – 438 Págs.
     “La eternidad se retiró precipitadamente a la imaginación matemática de la que había salido. Adiós al cosmos que funcionaba como un reloj. Progresivo y regresivo, el mundo estaba ahora dividido por una autopista de tiempo. Le tocaría a una nueva termodinámica, la del no equilibrio, tomar un helicóptero para contemplar los dos sentidos del tráfico y presentar la evolución y la termodinámica como elementos de una misma corriente.”
732. Ima Sanchís – Ervin László, doctor en Filosofía de la Ciencia con cuatro doctorados honoris causa: ‘Todo está conectado y nada desaparece’ – La Vanguardia, 16/08/2012 – http://www.lavanguardia.com/lacontra/20120816/54337907307/la-contra-ervin-laszlo.html
     “Los líderes no estaban dispuestos a hacer nada. Nosotros, científicos de distintas áreas, defendíamos otro tipo de crecimiento, que hoy llaman sostenible, y teníamos claro que necesitábamos líderes de opinión para difundirlo. Entre los primeros miembros estaban el Dalái Lama, Milos Forman, Mijaíl Gorbachov, Yehudi Menuhin, Rostropóvich, Arthur Clarke, Desmond Tutu… Ahora ya somos sesenta.”
733. Roger Penrose (1989) – La mente nueva del emperador: En torno a la cibernética, la mente y las leyes de la física – Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología, Fondo de Cultura Económica, México – Oxford University – ISBN 0-19-851973-7 – 572 Págs. – http://www.exactas.org/modules/UpDownload/store_folder/Otra_Literatura/Roger.Penrose.-.La.Mente.Nueva.Del.Emperador.pdf
734. Ima Sanchís – José Luis San Miguel de Pablos, geólogo y doctor en filosofía: ‘La consciencia es una propiedad del universo’ – La Vanguardia, 04/11/2014
     “Según esta hipótesis de James Lovelock y que secundó la prestigiosa bióloga Lynn Margulis, la tierra es una realidad viva y autoorganizada. La gran cuestión es si ahí puede haber una consciencia global… El materialismo ha machacado a los animales y ha degradado profundamente a los humanos. Y ha ninguneado la consciencia… desde hace más de dos siglos. Hoy tenemos la tecnociencia que es poder, pero también es pérdida de sabiduría.”
735. Gail Tverberg – Oil and the Economy: Where are We Headed in 2015-16? – Our Finite World, 06/01/2015 – http://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/01/06/oil-and-the-economy-where-are-we-headed-in-2015-16/
     “We don’t have much time to fix our problems. In the timeframe we are looking at, the only other solution would seem to be a religious one. I don’t know exactly what it would be; I am not a believer in The Rapture. There is great order underlying our current system. If the universe was formed in a big bang, there was no doubt a plan behind it …  We truly live in interesting times!”
736. Donella Meadows (1992) – There Are Limits to Growth, but No Limits to Love – Sustainability Institute, 30/04/1992 – http://www.sustainer.org/dhm_archive/index.php?display_article=vn433btlloveed
     “Speak the truth … Operate from love.”
737. Ted Trainer (2002) – If you want affluence, prepare for war – Democracy and Nature 8 – Social Work, University of NSW, Kensington – http://socialsciences.arts.unsw.edu.au/tsw/D62IfYouWantAffluence.html
     “Is that the prospects for transition depend primarily on whether or not this minority can develop rapidly in the next few decades, and that by far the most valuable global contribution one can make is to work within this movement.”
738. Benjamin Warr and Robert U. Ayres (2011) – Useful work and information as drivers of economic growth – Ecological Economics 73:93–102 doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.09.006 – European School of Business Administration, INSEAD; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
     “The revised production function has only three independent parameters. The new model also has implications for future economic growth, energy and environmental policy that differ significantly from the traditional growth theory. These implications are discussed briefly.”
739. Robert U. Ayres and Benjamin Warr (2009) – The Economic Growth Engine: How Energy and Work Drive Material Prosperity – Edward Elgar Publishing – IIASA Laxenburg + INSEAD Fontainebleau; Center for the Management of Environmental Resources (CMER), INSEAD – ISBN-13: 978-1848441828 – 448 Págs.
740. Antonio García-Olivares and Joaquim Ballabrera-Poy (2014) – Energy and mineral peaks, and a future steady state economy – Technological Forecasting & Social Change doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.013 – Institut de Ciències del Mar, CSIC
     “A problem with these two new production functions is that their labor (and in the second case, also capital) productivities do not satisfy the asymptotic conditions imposed by Kümmel [refs]. This makes the long-term evolution of factor productivities (FPs) to lack of interpretation. A way to avoid that is to introduce the ratio, i, between information capital stock and the total capital stock, in the following way:… ”
741. Jade Lindgaard – Joan Martinez Alier: «La croissance verte est une utopie» – Media Part, 11/10/2014 – http://www.ecosociosystemes.fr/utopie2.pdf
     “La croissance verte est-elle une idée nocive à vos yeux ? Du point de vue de l’éducation de la population, oui. La part verte, c’est bien, mais la part croissance, ça ne va pas. Il est vrai qu’il y a du chômage mais pour en sortir, il faut créer un nouveau système. Penser qu’on va retrouver la croissance sans externalités négatives, sans changement climatique et sans conflits avec les autres personnes et les autres espèces, ce n’est pas réaliste.”
742. Martin Wolf – Why the world faces climate chaos – Financial Times, 14/05/2013 – http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c926f6e8-bbf9-11e2-a4b4-00144feab7de.html
     “The first and deepest reason is that, as the civilisation of ancient Rome was built on slaves, ours is built on fossil fuels. What happened in the beginning of the 19th century was not an “industrial revolution” but an “energy revolution”. Putting carbon into the atmosphere is what we do.”
743. Martin Wolf (2012) – Living with limits: growth, resources, and climate change – Climate Policy 12:772-783 doi:10.1080/14693062.2012.695464 – Financial Times
     “However, if there are limits to growth, the political underpinnings of our world might fall apart. Intense distributional conflicts would re-emerge. Furthermore, we have no agreement on how to tackle them, above all when they cross borders.”
744. Ugo Bardi (2011) – The Limits to Growth Revisited – Springer – Dipartimento di Chimica, Università di Firenze; ASPO – Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, Italian section – ISBN 978-1-4419-9416-5 – 119 Págs.
     “Where the two models diverge is, roughly, with the first decades of the twenty-first century. The Solow-Stiglitz model states that the economy will keep growing forever; the LTG model, instead, indicates that at some point it will reach a maximum and then start declining.”
745. Johan Rockström et al (2009) – Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity – Ecology and Society 14:32-64 – http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/ – Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute, Australian National University – 29 autores
746. Andrew Simms and David Woodward (2006) – Growth Isn’t Working: The Uneven Distribution of Benefits and Costs from Economic Growth – New Economics Foundation – http://www.vilaweb.cat/noticia/4195627/20140604/alfons-duran-pich-treballo-bancs-soc-inversor-men-refio.html
     “The report says that the notion that global economic growth is the only way of reducing poverty for the world’s poorest people is the self-serving rhetoric of those who already enjoy the greatest share of world income. It’s authors argue that to achieve real progress we need to change in the way we think about and discuss economic issues, and break out of the confines of mainstream economic thinking. We also need a shift in power relations, both globally and nationally, to move power from developed countries, elites and commercial interests to the majority of the world’s population, the poor.”
747. Gail E. Tverberg – Where We Are Headed: Peak Oil and the Financial Crisis – The Oil Drum, 25/03/2009 – http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5230
     “Our One Way Economy: Our economy is designed to grow. Once it stops growing, everything comes “unglued”: Debt can’t be repaid; Huge numbers of businesses go bankrupt; Entire financial system looks ‘shaky’.”
748. Robert Lucas (1972) – Expectations and the Neutrality of Money – Journal of Economic Theory 4:103–124 doi:10.1016/0022-0531(72)90142-1 – Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie-Mellon University
749. Samuel Alexander (2014) – The New Economics of Oil – Melbourne Sustainability Issues paper No. 2, – Office for Environmental Programs, University of Melbourne + Simplicity Institute – http://www.sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/files/mssi/MSSI-Issues-Paper_AlexanderS_1.pdf
     “Whether the next twist arrives in the form of a new war or financial crisis, a new technology, a bursting shale bubble, or perhaps a radical cultural shift away from fossil fuels in response to climatic instability, intellectual integrity demands that analysts continue to revise viewpoints as further evidence continues to arrive. This issue is too important to be governed by ideology.”
750. Tyler Volk (2009) – Thermodynamics and civilization: from ancient rivers to fossil fuel energy servants – Climatic Change doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9595-1 – Department of Biology, New York University –
     “The annual release of carbon as metabolic CO2 by an average person who consumes 2,500 kcal of food per day is about 250 g of carbon per day, or about 90 kg-C per year. … Current per capita fossil-fuel CO2 emissions, globally, are 1.26 tC. Thus the average global per capita number of fossil fuel energy servants is 1.26/0.09 = 14. This is roughly like each having 14 human servants supply our daily needs. That is for every man, woman, and child on Earth.”
751. Sarah (Steve) Mosko (2010) – Americans, with 100 ‘energy servants’ each, share blame for Gulf oil spill – Culture Change, 18/06/2010 – http://www.culturechange.org/cms/content/view/656/66/
     “That’s why Professor of Physics Richard Wolfson of Middlebury College has been giving demonstrations for the last decade which impart a real gut-level, hands-on feel for the energy it takes to support the typical American lifestyle. “
752. William E. Rees (2002) – Is Humanity Fatally Successful? – Journal of Business Administration and Policy Analysis 30-31:67-100 – Former Director, School of Community and Regional Planning, University of British Columbia
     “This is no minor cognitive lapse. Once we’ve separated ourselves mentally from “the other,” then it doesn’t much matter to us what happens to the other. But if the separation is only myth (and the empirical data show that the human enterprise is a fully embedded –subsystem of the ecosphere) then what happens to “the other” becomes absolutely critical to our own future survival.”
753. Ted Trainer (2011) – The Radical Implications of Zero Growth Economy – Real-World Economics Review 57:71-82 – University of New South Wales – http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue57/Trainer57.pdf
     “The following points drive home the magnitude of the overshoot: …”
754. John Michael Greer (2012) – Progress vs. Apocalypse: The Stories We Tell Ourselves – En: The Energy Reader: Overdevelopment and the Delusion of Endless Growth, Tom Butler, Daniel Lerch, and George Wuerthner, eds. (Healdsburg, CA: Watershed Media, 2012) – Grand Archdruid of the Ancient Order of Druids in America – http://energy-reality.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/13_Progress_R1_041313.pdf
     “It’s not going too far, I think, to call belief in progress the established religion of the modern industrial world. In the same way that Christians have traditionally looked to heaven and Buddhists to nirvana, most people look to progress for their hope of salvation and their explanation for why the world is the way it is.”
755. Ugo Bardi – Peak oil is here: the view from Barbastro – Resource Crisis, 12/10/2014 – http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com.es/2014/10/peak-oil-is-here-view-from-barbastro.html
     “Now we are going through the peak and looking at the other side. What we are seeing is not pretty; we can just hope that it won’t be even worse than it seems to be.”
756. Richard Eckersley (2008) – Nihilism, Fundamentalism, or Activism: Three Responses to Fears of the Apocalypse – The Futurist – World Future Society – http://www.australia21.org.au/oldsite/pdf/RE%20Apocalypse.pd
     “Widespread fears of an apocalyptic future elicit equally dangerous responses: nihilistic thoughts and decadent lifestyles that accelerate environmental destruction, or fundamentalist intolerance that exacerbates social-political conflict. The only safe approach to suspicions of the apocalypse is adaptation through activism.”